Pattern Failbruary Thread

[Arcc]

I think everyone needs to remember that the op and ensemble mean will differ quite a bit on temps because the Mean is a mean of many individual member runs. The OP showing a warm period and the mean showing a cold does not mean they don’t support each other because the mean(especially at longer range) is likely skewing the temps over several days due to the timing and strength of each member being different.

Looking at the prolonged pattern at H5 on the ensemble mean is much better than temps and will show you much better if the OP and the ensembles support each other.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol again

 

[CaryWx]

So I guess it didn't turn into much

 

[Tarheel1]

I’m still waiting on my torch and severe to get cranking!

 

[Stormdoc]

lol again View attachment 112734

So, I guess we are back to pulling for more digging energy again and better tilt? Same old story?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This pattern coming up is almost November in a nutshell

 

[Myfrotho704_]

bringing this out again because worth noting if we see forcing return to the maritime continent, this might slow down the return to a El Niño as maritime continent forcing typically aids in cooler water in the eq pac. Still a likely westerly wind burst would likely stop MJO progression into the Pac in March. For our sensible weather, this might mean morch if we can touch ph 6 esp, but phase 5 start to cool down the later you get into spring

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We’re never getting out of this pattern lol

 

[GaWx]

We’re never getting out of this pattern lol View attachment 112746

Brick has already determined that RDU is done with measurable snowfall for the season. How he knows that with their best snow climo still yet to come is mind boggling.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Keep thinking that lol…

Still not one sign of a torch in the extended, with plenty of models backing it up, and MJO/subseasonal pattern backing it up, this ain’t no 2011-12, but more of a 2014 and 2015 at H5 ??‍

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sorry warm weenies (including me) but your torch is denied, this isn’t your typical feb nina. Go to sleep
And in fact the gefs is already adjusting mid feb to more eastern troughing, likely from how
Much the pacific jet keeps extending as we get closer. I’d say the only way we get warmer is due the how bad the Atlantic pattern is and how vulnerable it makes us

 

[pcbjr]

^^^

 

[Tarheel1]

I’m still going with -2 below normal for GSP for the month of February! Looking like a good call!

 

[CaryWx]

This is all great but do we have any inclement weather in the next 10days?

 

[Tarheel1]

Also, with the MJO rambling around in and around the circle and lower amplitudes, it’s going to really put a damper on severe season, I hope not, because I love tracking huge kidneybeans with the best of them, but the cool, damp , March and April, will inhibit severe parameters! I really hope I’m wrong, but I think it’ll be a late start, maybe into May and June, we can score!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The overall strong + northern annular mode in the stratosphere should start to couple to the troposphere even more soon, we have gotten away with it with transient -AO especially, but it should start to make it’s mark known in late February

 

[pcbjr]

The overall strong + northern annular mode in the stratosphere should start to couple to the troposphere even more soon, we have gotten away with it with transient -AO especially, but it should start to make it’s mark known in late February

? ‍?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The overall strong + northern annular mode in the stratosphere should start to couple to the troposphere even more soon, we have gotten away with it with transient -AO especially, but it should start to make it’s mark known in late February

I remember you saying that in early January ? I’m sure it’ll end up biting us where it hurts but that PV argument was used a lot early on and it just kept stretching

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I remember you saying that in early January ? I’m sure it’ll end up biting us where it hurts but that PV argument was used a lot early on and it just kept stretching

Well this +PNA pattern is starting to show signs of breaking towards mid Month with that big low on/north of AK, typically a precursor to a bad pattern, all fits the MJO, I’d say we have 2-2.5 more weeks or so of opportunity

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Well this +PNA pattern is starting to show signs of breaking towards mid Month with that big low on/north of AK, typically a precursor to a bad pattern, all fits the MJO, I’d say we have 2-2.5 more weeks or so of opportunity

I guess we can’t have a perfect pattern forever I suppose

 

[Stephenb888]

Well this +PNA pattern is starting to show signs of breaking towards mid Month with that big low on/north of AK, typically a precursor to a bad pattern, all fits the MJO, I’d say we have 2-2.5 more weeks or so of opportunity

I thought just a day ago everyone in here was saying the pattern was going to be great again mid month? Now it’s gonna turn to crap mid month?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I thought just a day ago everyone in here was saying the pattern was going to be great again mid month? Now it’s gonna turn to crap mid month?

You do know next weekend/the beginning of the week is around mid month right ? That’s still way in the 2.5 week window….. you good ? Haha

 

[Heelyes]

Math is hard

 

[Rain Cold]

I thought just a day ago everyone in here was saying the pattern was going to be great again mid month? Now it’s gonna turn to crap mid month?

 

[Chazwin]

Well this +PNA pattern is starting to show signs of breaking towards mid Month with that big low on/north of AK, typically a precursor to a bad pattern, all fits the MJO, I’d say we have 2-2.5 more weeks or so of opportunity

Maybe we can pull together a big storm as the PNA breaks down

 

[NCSNOW]

Snows a flying across NW NC again tonight. All you need in Boone is a NW wind and presto

 

[RollTide18]

Got some light flurries right now

 

[SWVAwxfan]

We are getting some northwest flow snow this morning near Christiansburg VA. Dusting of accumulation so far.

 

[rburrel2]

Looks lik the 12z ICON was about to go boom with a phase sparking a deep gulf low at 180hrs..

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Looks lik the 12z ICON was about to go boom with a phase sparking a deep gulf low at 180hrs..

As depicted, that looks like an Alabama westward threat to me. There is no cold in place east of the Appalachians and the low would be moving NE from Louisiana it would seem. That said, it's good to see the potential for a big storm to continue to show up off and on in this period.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

As depicted, that looks like an Alabama westward threat to me. There is no cold in place east of the Appalachians and the low would be moving NE from Louisiana it would seem. That said, it's good to see the potential for a big storm to continue to show up off and on in this period.

Eh debatable .. I think that high pressure is advancing fairly rapidly while the storm is developing I could see most of the SE getting in on that if it progressed forward .. phases are always weird and sloppy though so who knows

 

[rburrel2]

As depicted, that looks like an Alabama westward threat to me. There is no cold in place east of the Appalachians and the low would be moving NE from Louisiana it would seem. That said, it's good to see the potential for a big storm to continue to show up off and on in this period.

Meh, I dunno about that. The trough is still positive tilted and you've got nice confluence in the northeast and high pressure moving in tandem with the phasing trough/storm.

I'm not sure it gets Eastern NC involved but as depicted I don't think there's a chance the strengthening low is cutting west of the apps or anything. More likely it's a coastal of some sort, imo.

 

[GaWx]

Colder vs prior runs coming in for midmonth on 12Z GFS? Let’s see! Two Arctic highs.

 

[GaWx]

Maybe overdone but still this is good to see:

 

[GaWx]

Boom! Not to be taken at face value, but just goes to show what can happen at midmonth when dealing with Arctic air at a time when climo big SE snow chances are near a high point.

 

[Tarheel1]

Boom! Not to be taken at face value, but just goes to show what can happen at midmonth when dealing with Arctic air at a time when climo big SE snow chances are near a high point.

View attachment 112814
View attachment 112813

 

[Flotown]

Definitely something brewing for late next weekend, maybe it want be what we want but all globals so far have a SIMILAR look

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

??

 

[Tarheel1]

Don’t know if Brent deserves another one! ?

 

[Tarheel1]

A true classic winter storm late GFS 12z ????????