Pattern Januworry

[Cad Wedge NC]

Down the stovepipe and right smack dab into the middle of the four corners region. Honk honk. Cant ask for much more than that.View attachment 110007

I'll take that look all day long at this range.

 

[griteater]

18z Euro update....trend loop here shows the Euro dropping the wave farther west each run, now into western Wyoming

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s a lot of flizzard members

 

[Cary_Snow95]

That’s a lot of flizzard members View attachment 110011

Is 18z EPS out for day 6?

 

[packfan98]

Is 18z EPS out for day 6?

Comes out in an hour.

 

[SnowQueen]

First post on this forum. My name is Mia and I found you all last Monday and after seeing how everyone was polite and didn't make fun of novices like myself, I was sold.
I have no metrology schooling. I can't read models at all. Just a native North Carolinian who knows all about near misses, hates warm nose scenarios, and will watch it snow for hours given the chance.
Glad to be here!!!

Mia

 

[Tarheel1]

First post on this forum. I found you all last Monday and after seeing how everyone was polite and didn't make fun of novices like myself, I was sold.
I have no metrology schooling. I can't read models at all. Just a native North Carolinian who knows all about near misses, hates warm nose scenarios, and will watch it snow for hours given the chance.
Glad to be here!!!

Is this Fro’s burner account!!??
JK- welcome

 

[Hypsometric]

18z Euro update....trend loop here shows the Euro dropping the wave farther west each run, now into western Wyoming

Man that western ridge is absolute textbook.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Man that western ridge is absolute textbook.

Just keeps getting taller

 

[Arcc]

18z Euro update....trend loop here shows the Euro dropping the wave farther west each run, now into western Wyoming

Getting close to our benchmark here at Idaho.

 

[BullCityWx]

Control run just hit a 105MPH laser beam that went just left of the foul pole

 

[Rain Cold]

First post on this forum. I found you all last Monday and after seeing how everyone was polite and didn't make fun of novices like myself, I was sold.
I have no metrology schooling. I can't read models at all. Just a native North Carolinian who knows all about near misses, hates warm nose scenarios, and will watch it snow for hours given the chance.
Glad to be here!!!

Welcome aboard!

 

[iGRXY]

18z Euro update....trend loop here shows the Euro dropping the wave farther west each run, now into western Wyoming

I don’t see any reason why this wouldn’t lead to a winter storm. That sucker would be riding right down the Rockies and the WR continues getting taller and taller.

 

[SnowQueen]

Welcome aboard!

Thanks so much."-)

 

[BullCityWx]

Goes on to bury NE

 

[SD]

Yeah it doesn't take much to miss here or get a foot

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[Spurs up]

First post on this forum. My name is Mia and I found you all last Monday and after seeing how everyone was polite and didn't make fun of novices like myself, I was sold.
I have no metrology schooling. I can't read models at all. Just a native North Carolinian who knows all about near misses, hates warm nose scenarios, and will watch it snow for hours given the chance.
Glad to be here!!!

Mia

welcome!

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 110017

Get a little WAR action here and bring this back about 150miles sw and we'll have the game on

 

[Stephenb888]

Get a little WAR action here and bring this back about 150miles sw and we'll have the game on

I think it needs to be a lot more than 150 miles.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 110017

Ugh this looks so good this far out .. please let’s reel one more in for us

 

[Clem282340]

Hopefully we can reel one more in for a broad wide

 

[Myfrotho704_]

icon wide right. Flizzard tho. This seems like the more likely outcome atp

 

[Arcc]

ICON way west compared to its 18z run through 90hrs.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Icon has the shortwave farther west

 

[Arcc]

icon wide right. Flizzard tho. This seems like the more likely outcome atp View attachment 110032View attachment 110033View attachment 110034

It’s just crazy. If you have a s/w positive tilt right here it’s money 90% of the time yet we(most of the SE) are gonna strike out two weeks straight.

 

[Stephenb888]

It’s just crazy. If you have a s/w positive tilt right here it’s money 90% of the time yet we(most of the SE) are gonna strike out two weeks straight.

View attachment 110035

I would wait until Wednesday nights runs before you throw the towel in. If they still show this crap by then, then yeah it’s time to move on.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

icon wide right. Flizzard tho. This seems like the more likely outcome atp View attachment 110032View attachment 110033View attachment 110034

Nothing wrong with a little flizzard action .. some times these can be a lil dynamic .. short range models like to have fun with them

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

icon wide right. Flizzard tho. This seems like the more likely outcome atp View attachment 110032View attachment 110033View attachment 110034

Also something this close at hour 120 is absolutely in the realm to move back towards a storm .. we just shouldn’t expect anything crazy at this point or you’ll be let down

 

[NCSNOW]

0z RDPS Knows where the stovepipe is. Unlike the Nam.

 

[lexxnchloe]

We are 5 days awayand we know how much the models changed within the same day with the last low. At least we have a chance

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Less TPV this GFS run might get real interesting

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[DopplerWx]

It’s better at 129. Coastal love

 

[jrips27]

Close

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[griteater]

Less TPV this GFS run might get real interesting View attachment 110038

GFS was a little better. It brought the base of the trough east quicker. It’s kind of funny that we are dealing with the same scenario as last storm of trying to get a positive tilt wave to go neutral quicker. Lot of time for this to go either way

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[NCSNOW]

That tpv pulling back delayed the ns energy dropping in, was stringy there for a while, but finally connected