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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
3k will have it in Lexington Kentucky by 12z tomorrow but everyone will discount it with the catchy “it’s now cast time.” phrase.
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I’m waiting on the radar hallucinations phase of the storm on Sunday
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Go sit in the chair. How much? ?
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It’s blowing and drifting off the roof, so it’s misleading, but fun to look at. About 4-6” in reality, it’s been snowing pixie dust nonstop since 10am. Was forecast as of last night- dusting to 2”
 
Tarheel1 said:
It’s blowing and drifting off the roof, so it’s misleading, but fun to look at. About 4-6” in reality, it’s been snowing pixie dust nonstop since 10am. Was forecast as of last night- dusting to 2”
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Good looking snow! Love a good high end bust. Never had one myself but now I know a guy. ? Just hold onto that snowpack for us. We don’t want our cold air moderating when it drops down out of Winnipeg
 
The only model that showed snow crossing the Mississippi River, were last nights 18z and 0z NAM, and the model run looked very much like current radar. GFS and Euro stopped the snow right at the river and forecasted a dusting of snow. Here’s the radar currently and 18z NAM from yesterday 92A9C5BB-A13D-4AA0-9968-E422DBB223FC.pngAFDAA5BA-4F5D-4BFF-9E35-5287A473D951.png
 
Getting sappy here, but my boys are about to turn 5 and are finally old enough to get super excited about the chance of snow and actually play in it, etc. So I would take 2 inches of snow out of this system in a heartbeat!

Such a crazy storm to track. Every 12 hours it’s like my team scored or threw a pick-6 in the Super Bowl… except worse.

Good luck to everybody, let’s get some 20 inch totals in the mountains and some surprise bands of 6” in the Deep South!
 
Tarheel1 said:
It’s blowing and drifting off the roof, so it’s misleading, but fun to look at. About 4-6” in reality, it’s been snowing pixie dust nonstop since 10am. Was forecast as of last night- dusting to 2”
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Hoping for a similar thing here... I definitely think there's potential

Also starting to watch outside it's down to 36 and raining. May get a brief burst with this band
 
Snowflowxxl said:
This place will have 50 post an hour for a fantasy storm at day 8 but the night before the biggest storm in years it’s crickets. What the hell
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i think most everybody is exhausted at this point. The fun part of tracking is all but over. Now we move into the event phase. Then we move into the phase where we realize we probably won’t have another opportunity to score again for a very long time.
 
That system on the GFS reminds me of this little overperformer in Feb 2015. It was an appetizer to the main event a day later but was a pretty significant event on its own. Precip amounts were very light (less than 0.1" total) but there was no mixing, and it snowed for most of the day in the low-mid 20s. Roads were completely covered, and schools had to close early in the morning. An inch and a half of powder was pretty cool, I'd take this over a mixed bag storm with 10x the QPF any day
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Unfortunate BUST for snow started unfolding Friday afternoon and has now become solid as an 850 going up west and over the Apps won’t allow other than nuisance front end snow east of the mountains.

Fingers crossed for all in the icing areas that the NAM warm nose continues to strengthen to limit ice accretion

NAM and HRRR is the king on critical thermal profiles and the lesson is again re-enforced that in marginal snow situations nothing is to be trusted outside of 36-48 hours
 
Wildboutsnow said:
I still have no idea what I should be preparing the farm for today. Parella Lewis said a trace to inch. Models look more than that...Lawd. So confused.
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Same. But then again I never understand what the NWS does with my Forsyth County. Usually the top half of my county has the same weather as Dawsonville and the bottom half is drier and closer temps to Fulton so they usually put align our county forecast with the metro counties.
 
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I need some nutty clown maps for North AL to get me excited. I will say the Jan 2-3 snow definitely outperformed in Blount Co anyways. I didn’t expect more than a dusting with ground temps over freezing and lots of rain before. But once the changeover happened, the ground covered quickly and we had 3 inches total.
 
Lol… I go to bed with all rain, wake up to an advisory . Dreading the wind with all these trees around my house, it doesn’t take much for power outages here. Maybe I should not live on the savannah river lol
 
Folks don't get sucked in again for next Friday. Not in the Carolina's at least for snow. I've watched the NWS constantly lower my snow totals this event from 6-8 to 4-6 now down to 2 inches. Don't fall for it guys. The warm nose will always be way stronger than modeled and surface temps will always trend warmer 24 hrs before go time. Happens every single time. I guess I'll enjoy my ice storm and hope I keep power.
 
Can Athens get a solid snow event please? Every new storm looks good for a second then always shifts north like this one with the coastal low not being as far south for us.

And not just Athens like, it would be awesome for folks even further south down to Macon or so to have a good snow for a change. Same with our friends in South Carolina who seem to always miss out.
 
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