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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Icon and RDPS are crippling ice storms in the Midlands; Still. Something's gotta give here with these models vs the GFS with the CAD/temperatures.

And the 3KM NAM is a substantial threat.

So far the only model that has shown a possible trend away from a bigger icing event is the Euro's 18z.. rest have been locked (besides gfs)
 
What the RDPS did was increase totals in MS, TN, and GA. This is a true model tug of war.
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Shawn said:
Icon and RDPS are crippling ice storms in the Midlands; Still. Something's gotta give here with these models vs the GFS with the CAD/temperatures.

And the 3KM NAM is a substantial threat.

So far the only model that has shown a possible trend away from a bigger icing event is the Euro's 18z..
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GFS is a big outlier. Hard to imagine it being in the ballpark with surface temperatures/dewpoints
 
malak05 said:
NAM3k and NAM aren't exactly In agreement. You can see a good bit more ice extending westward on 3k and quicker transition to snow in this frame by comparison. The 3k temp profiles maybe have different outlook on cold and cad
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Could be, but a lot in the red circle could be drizzle or ice pellets due to lack of DGZ moisture. Just a guess though, haven’t looked at soundings.
 

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griteater said:
GFS is a big outlier. Hard to imagine it being in the ballpark with surface temperatures/dewpoints
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And it worries me because my local office seem to love the GFS while our neighbors in FFC seem to think differently. I just don't want the elderly/sick/hospitals etc to "not see it coming".
 
The key feature that turns our system to the NE is this shortwave dropping into the Dakota's Sunday which winds up phasing with our ULL. If that guy is just a bit flatter there and or slower that NE turn through Georgia happens further east.

That feature is still out in the Pacific south of Alaska ATT.
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Myfrotho704_ said:
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??

It’s been pretty consistent but I guess it doesn’t matter if you’re consistently bad, just ask Matt Rhule. I think the best way to over perform with this event wrt snow is to get under that band depicted by the super hi-res modeling.
 
GaWx said:
1. Per @dsaur, temperatures were 32 on the Buckhead bank thermometer he was watching and official records had it no colder than 30-31 for the coldest for the entire January 1973 storm.

2. 1-2/1973 was during El Niño, not La Niña.
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The cad was constantly refreshed the whole time. That's what I've noticed about these ice storms and sleet storms due to cad, or rain turning to sleet...it's being refresh the while time, and the temps don't waver much...not lagging. The warm nose assault team . And that storm was a big one. Inches. You usually don't get a big gom low bring inches of precip, and not have the warm nose messing with it....when it's borderline temps. That storm was zr all the whole time, and accretion rates were amazing. With cad snow/sleet you can be out sledding at 2am and it's snow/sleet, then rain,zr, then rain/sleet, and back to snow/ip. Always on the edge. That's why I like to bring a gulf low right into deep cold in situ. Takes out the guess work, lol. I guess not as much fun for Mr. Abacus though :)
 
Gfs is so much warmer than the other models. Keeps clt right at 31 at the surface the event. Strong warm nose obviously as well
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Storm5 said:
Gfs isn't very impressed for Miss or Alabama . Thermal issues everywhere


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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So which one do you go with?? We are like 50/50 models wise. Just hope for the dynamics of the system help cool the columns down?
 
GFS has the precursor finger in NC..... hmmm
 
Seems like the nam and even the gfs is holding on now to more snow on the northern portion of the storm. Prior runs seemed to over run the entire storm with freezing rain. Anybody know what changed? Haven't dug in yet, probably look closer in the morning.
 
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