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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

metwannabe said:
I hate how this thing is going to start out further south but still end up inland NC, pure suckage
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Yeah it seems like all of the "beneficial" changes in the first 48 hours lead to the same crappy solution for us.
 
Lets take roll for us Raleigh folks...

1). Arctic air mass in place
2). 1040+ high over the lakes
3). Stout 50/50 in text book spot
4). SLP down along the gulf

Everything we need for 2" of rain, how did we manage to screw this look up...??

nam-218-all-conuswide-mslp-2258800.png
 
KyloG said:
Lets take roll for us Raleigh folks...

1). Arctic air mass in place
2). 1040+ high over the lakes
3). Stout 50/50 in text book spot
4). SLP down along the gulf

Everything we need for 2" of rain, how did we manage to screw this look up...??

View attachment 104927
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It’s this latest generation of storms man. Typical. Lazy and impatient. Silly thing won’t go offshore and away, and just HAS to cut inland like a shortcut. Big hurry to get NE. :p
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah it seems like all of the "beneficial" changes in the first 48 hours lead to the same crappy solution for us.
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Getting ready to do the same thing. Big shift south! Much better cold press! Wave open longer! Gulf track Miller A!



Same track over Raleigh. Sigh
 
I swear Alabama always stays winning with snow lol. While it’s sleet around clt


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KyloG said:
We suck but we do it with style. ?

I honestly don’t know what it’s going to take for it to snow here. Alabama is just cranking out snow events. ?‍♂️
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Seems I've heard things don't work like they used to
 
99% of storms with cad involved I'd take the cmc, nam and euro with some ukie involved. Maybe if the gfs joins up today we can all party.
More changes ahead today but an encouraging adjustment on the nam...not a trend yet as it's just getting into range. 3km nam will tell the tale soon enough.
 
Rain Cold said:
Getting ready to do the same thing. Big shift south! Much better cold press! Wave open longer! Gulf track Miller A!



Same track over Raleigh. Sigh
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Yeah, I just came in here to say the same thing. Color me unimpressed. I don't care if it trends to Cuba. If it doesn't track further East off shore then it's going to be rain here. Not even a cold rain either. It's all about the track.

Edit: What was that I was hearing about not needing a -NAO?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
For those new here it’s common for 1) pre-event snow to break out before the main event 2) NAM is a short range model that oftens trends colder leading up the event 3) snow maps are bad when it’s mixing so are ice maps it takes a lot of human input to create boundaries on who sees what and how much 4) backside snows are rare and almost never survive crossing the mtns due to downsloping winds 5) there’s more but I enjoy watching people react
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#birdformod
 
Broken024 said:
#birdformod
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thumb_not-impressed-kid-blank-template-imgflip-52227970.png
 
Shawn said:
I kinda wanna test the theory and give bird limited powers just to see what he does. but my common sense says he will find a way to do permanent damage.
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#PublishtheNotebook

Your job as Mods kind of sucks, I've said it before but we are all here because we enjoy the weather. To have to babysit while just trying to enjoy your hobby must be tough, but we certainly appreciate it!
 
Unfamiliar with everything south of Blowing Rock NC but I believe they are more prone to missing the pre event and finding the warm nose sooner being located further south.
 
Thor said:
#PublishtheNotebook

Your job as Mods kind of sucks, I've said it before but we are all here because we enjoy the weather. To have to babysit while just trying to enjoy your hobby must be tough, but we certainly appreciate it!
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I don't mod too much tbh. Keeping the server afloat during these big traffic spikes with potential storms is already too much to handle sometimes. Haha. The fundraiser is really going to help things out in the long-term when we have some dead/downtime to push it through.
 
Thor said:
#PublishtheNotebook

Your job as Mods kind of sucks, I've said it before but we are all here because we enjoy the weather. To have to babysit while just trying to enjoy your hobby must be tough, but we certainly appreciate it!
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They get paid millions.
 
Broken024 said:
They get paid millions.
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There is like 0 profit money in a website like this. Repeat visitors = advertisers worst nightmare. We'd have to build a product to sell to everyone that trust us instead and outside weather models.... there's just not much with this type of community. Us getting access to the Euro to sell would cost a fortune. There's bigger sites selling it for 9.99 a month for example.
 
Shawn said:
There is like 0 profit money in a website like this. Repeat visitors = advertisers worst nightmare. We'd have to build a product to sell to everyone that trust us instead and outside weather models.... there's just not much with this type of community. Us getting access to the Euro to sell would cost a fortune. There's bigger sites selling it for 9.99 a month for example.
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That's exactly what a millionaire would say
 
Arcc said:
Ice with a few inches of heavy wet snow will be a nightmare. The ice on the trees and power lines will allow the snow to stick like glue when it may other wise fall off.
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No worries, the wind associated with this will bring the whole limb/tree/powerpole down to easily clean it off.
 
1F4785FD-9970-4789-98EA-804476F9108F.jpeg
A snow band like this will cause issues, 2+ inches per hour if right
 
Hugging one run of one model inevitably leads to disappointment. We’ll be lucky to see much model consensus before tomorrow. I expect some swings especially in that time frame when global models begin to leave their range and regional models are just coming into theirs. Be patient.
 
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