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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

What’s going on with these run to run changes 12z runs looked really good now the 18z came out and not looking as good as the 12z what causing all these different looks
 
Clem282340 said:
What’s going on with these run to run changes 12z runs looked really good now the 18z came out and not looking as good as the 12z what causing all these different looks
Click to expand...
18z is looking good at hour 384. Just like the 12z did.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, Don, there actually is a small positive correlation (~+0.1 to +0.15) between Nov +AMO and higher SE January temperatures per Maxar though I can’t quantify and/or compare to effects of other indices like -NAO. That’s something that shouldn’t be ignored and may very well counter how cold it may get in the SE at least in the means since the Oct and Nov AMOs were both monthly records and the highest since 8/2010.

Edit: Hers what Maxar said last week:

“The North Atlantic remains in a warm phase, with the +AMO being a monthly record in November (NOAA data dates back to 1856). Among the various oceans, the AMO correlates best in January and to the warmer side.”

They also showed a map showing partial + correlation of Nov AMO with warmer Jan temperatures. I will note, however, that the correlation is smaller in the SE than other parts of the E US/MW (only +0.1 to 0.15 vs double that at St Louis, for example.)
Click to expand...
Since SSTs can enhance the stratosphere, can the AMO alter higher latitude blocking (NAO region) or even cause blocking across the North Atlantic if SSTs are above normal? Or even cause eastern Atlantic ridging/Burmuda highs? The AMO has been positive and I'm beginning to think that the +AMO has caused an increase of eastern ridging/Bermuda highs over the past several winters.
 
StormWatch said:
Since SSTs can enhance the stratosphere, can the AMO alter higher latitude blocking (NAO region) or even cause blocking across the North Atlantic if SSTs are above normal? Or even cause eastern Atlantic ridging/Burmuda highs? The AMO has been positive and I'm beginning to think that the +AMO has caused an increase of eastern ridging/Bermuda highs over the past several winters.
Click to expand...

This all sounds plausible but I don’t really know. I do wonder if it helps strengthen the SER.
 
Ollie Williams said:
@Webberweather53 should add AMO to his large telecommunications excel file. Then, I could run 500mb anomalies from that.
Click to expand...

Definitely something I’m considering atm. Currently adding a slew of pre-1950 indices using 20CR. I eventually want to take the mean pattern of our big winter storms and project all the data onto that. That would be a simpler yes-no index of snow/ice
 
The purpose of this research is to discover other features that correlate with the patterns across the eastern US since the past several winters have been mild with above normal temperatures. I believe there is a stronger influence for the Eastern US than the drivers of the Pacific Ocean and it comes down to alternations of SSTs in the Atlantic. I have been doing some research of the AMO and the surface temperature anomalies particularly across the eastern US/Canada during the winter months (Dec.-Feb.) I have discovered that, when there are below normal SSTs from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, (through the north Atlantic) the surface temperatures were below normal across the Eastern US despite the status of the ENSO.

For example: Dec. 2010 - there was a La-Nina, but the SSTs were below normal from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, and much of the Eastern US experienced below/much below normal surface temperatures despite of the La-Nina - in figure i. is the SST anomalies, and I have drawn out to what I'm discussing. I have also discovered that, when the SSTs are above normal along the Tropic of Cancer and below (off the western coast of Africa) the SSTs to the north of there across the North Atlantic become below normal. I think it has to do with the Gulf current/stream, this area of research needs more work, such as obtaining cross-sections of temp. and depth along the Tropic of Cancer. I think the depth of the warmer waters caused all of the dense cold waters to circulate north, but I'll need cross-sections to verify that.

SSTsDec2010.jpg
Figure i. - SST anomalies below normal across west central Atlantic towards Europe of Dec. 2010.

In result of the below normal SSTs from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, much of the eastern US (despite of a La-Nina) experienced much below normal temperatures in Dec. 2010. Even Europe experienced much below normal temperatures. (Note: In comparison between figure i. and figure ii. - in figure i. you can see warmer SSTs south of Greenland and along the eastern seaboard (Gulf Stream) this resulted in above normal surface temperatures in far eastern Canada/southern Greenland in figure ii.)

map-land-sfc-mntp-201012.gif
Figure ii.

In comparison of the current SST anomalies in the Atlantic (Figure iii.) I have found a closest match of Dec. 2007. The SSTs aren't below normal from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, so I think the warmth will continue across the eastern US in the weeks to come. Below is a comparison of the SST anomalies from Dec. 2007 and current. (Dec. 2007 - a La-Nina was present.)

2007andCurrent.jpg
Figure iii. - Comparison of SST anomalies of Dec. 2007 and current.

Based from the SSTs in the Atlantic (excluding the ENSO), this winter is similar to Dec. 2007. Below in figure iv. is the surface temperature anomalies, and you can see at that time, much of the eastern US experienced above normal temperatures (especially the southeastern US)

map-land-sfc-mntp-200712.gif
Figure iv.


Late this month, the SSTs could become colder across the north Atlantic as it's looking likely a trough is to setup over the north Atlantic. In figure v. the GEFS is indicating below normal air temperature late this month over the North Atlantic that may result in lower SSTs across the north Atlantic later on in January.

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_51.png Figure v.

The coldest air of the winter season just may transition to the southeast sometime during the 2 or 3 week in January depending how the SSTs evolve (in the Atlantic) over the coming weeks.

Perhaps @GaWx , @Webberweather53 and @Ollie Williams can help out further on this.

More research to follow...
 
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StormWatch said:
The purpose of this research is to discover other features that correlate with the patterns across the eastern US since the past several winters have been mild with above normal temperatures. I believe there is a stronger influence for the Eastern US than the drivers of the Pacific Ocean and it comes down to alternations of SSTs in the Atlantic. I have been doing some research of the AMO and the surface temperature anomalies particularly across the eastern US/Canada during the winter months (Dec.-Feb.) I have discovered that, when there are below normal SSTs from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, (through the north Atlantic) the surface temperatures were below normal across the Eastern US despite the status of the ENSO.

For example: Dec. 2010 - there was a La-Nina, but the SSTs were below normal from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, and much of the Eastern US experienced below/much below normal surface temperatures despite of the La-Nina - in figure i. is the SST anomalies, and I have drawn out to what I'm discussing. I have also discovered that, when the SSTs are above normal along the Tropic of Cancer and below (off the western coast of Africa) the SSTs to the north of there across the North Atlantic become below normal. I think it has to do with the Gulf current/stream, this area of research needs more work, such as obtaining cross-sections of temp. and depth along the Tropic of Cancer. I think the depth of the warmer waters caused all of the dense cold waters to circulate north, but I'll need cross-sections to verify that.

View attachment 98426
Figure i. - SST anomalies below normal across west central Atlantic towards Europe of Dec. 2010.

In result of the below normal SSTs from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, much of the eastern US (despite of a La-Nina) experienced much below normal temperatures in Dec. 2010. Even Europe experienced much below normal temperatures. (Note: In comparison between figure i. and figure ii. - in figure i. you can see warmer SSTs south of Greenland and along the eastern seaboard (Gulf Stream) this resulted in above normal surface temperatures in far eastern Canada/southern Greenland in figure ii.)

View attachment 98428
Figure ii.

In comparison of the current SST anomalies in the Atlantic (Figure iii.) I have found a closest match of Dec. 2007. The SSTs aren't below normal from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, so I think the warmth will continue across the eastern US in the weeks to come. Below is a comparison of the SST anomalies from Dec. 2007 and current. (Dec. 2007 - a La-Nina was present.)

View attachment 98424
Figure iii. - Comparison of SST anomalies of Dec. 2007 and current.

Based from the SSTs in the Atlantic (excluding the ENSO), this winter is similar to Dec. 2007. Below in figure iv. is the surface temperature anomalies, and you can see at that time, much of the eastern US experienced above normal temperatures (especially the southeastern US)

View attachment 98425
Figure iv.


Late this month, the SSTs could become colder across the north Atlantic as it's looking likely a trough is to setup over the north Atlantic. In figure v. the GEFS is indicating below normal air temperature late this month over the North Atlantic that may result in lower SSTs across the north Atlantic later on in January.

View attachment 98429 Figure v.

The coldest air of the winter season just may transition to the southeast sometime during the 2 or 3 week in January depending how the SSTs evolve (in the Atlantic) over the coming weeks.

Perhaps @GaWx , @Webberweather53 and @Ollie Williams can help out further on this.

More research to follow...
Click to expand...
The QBO, by the way is the equatorial zonal stratospheric wind, which is from the east (-) or west (+). It seems to shift directions every 12ish months. People like to include its direction, magnitude, and rate of change in their winter forecasts. But IMO, that application is still in its infancy. Like with many other indexes, there is no magical one size fits all value or direction that governs the pattern completely. Its impacts upon the cold seasonal pattern may not be insignificant, but other variables like ENSO orientation and magnitude, solar output, and often finding small analogs samples make pattern predictability difficult when relying too heavily on the QBO in forecasts. Like with anything else, it's a piece of the puzzle, but it's one that I don't think we quite have a good handle on just yet.

QBO: Quasi-Biennial Oscillation | Climate Data Guide

climatedataguide.ucar.edu climatedataguide.ucar.edu
 
StormWatch said:
The purpose of this research is to discover other features that correlate with the patterns across the eastern US since the past several winters have been mild with above normal temperatures. I believe there is a stronger influence for the Eastern US than the drivers of the Pacific Ocean and it comes down to alternations of SSTs in the Atlantic. I have been doing some research of the AMO and the surface temperature anomalies particularly across the eastern US/Canada during the winter months (Dec.-Feb.) I have discovered that, when there are below normal SSTs from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, (through the north Atlantic) the surface temperatures were below normal across the Eastern US despite the status of the ENSO.

For example: Dec. 2010 - there was a La-Nina, but the SSTs were below normal from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, and much of the Eastern US experienced below/much below normal surface temperatures despite of the La-Nina - in figure i. is the SST anomalies, and I have drawn out to what I'm discussing. I have also discovered that, when the SSTs are above normal along the Tropic of Cancer and below (off the western coast of Africa) the SSTs to the north of there across the North Atlantic become below normal. I think it has to do with the Gulf current/stream, this area of research needs more work, such as obtaining cross-sections of temp. and depth along the Tropic of Cancer. I think the depth of the warmer waters caused all of the dense cold waters to circulate north, but I'll need cross-sections to verify that.

View attachment 98426
Figure i. - SST anomalies below normal across west central Atlantic towards Europe of Dec. 2010.

In result of the below normal SSTs from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, much of the eastern US (despite of a La-Nina) experienced much below normal temperatures in Dec. 2010. Even Europe experienced much below normal temperatures. (Note: In comparison between figure i. and figure ii. - in figure i. you can see warmer SSTs south of Greenland and along the eastern seaboard (Gulf Stream) this resulted in above normal surface temperatures in far eastern Canada/southern Greenland in figure ii.)

View attachment 98428
Figure ii.

In comparison of the current SST anomalies in the Atlantic (Figure iii.) I have found a closest match of Dec. 2007. The SSTs aren't below normal from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, so I think the warmth will continue across the eastern US in the weeks to come. Below is a comparison of the SST anomalies from Dec. 2007 and current. (Dec. 2007 - a La-Nina was present.)

View attachment 98424
Figure iii. - Comparison of SST anomalies of Dec. 2007 and current.

Based from the SSTs in the Atlantic (excluding the ENSO), this winter is similar to Dec. 2007. Below in figure iv. is the surface temperature anomalies, and you can see at that time, much of the eastern US experienced above normal temperatures (especially the southeastern US)

View attachment 98425
Figure iv.


Late this month, the SSTs could become colder across the north Atlantic as it's looking likely a trough is to setup over the north Atlantic. In figure v. the GEFS is indicating below normal air temperature late this month over the North Atlantic that may result in lower SSTs across the north Atlantic later on in January.

View attachment 98429 Figure v.

The coldest air of the winter season just may transition to the southeast sometime during the 2 or 3 week in January depending how the SSTs evolve (in the Atlantic) over the coming weeks.

Perhaps @GaWx , @Webberweather53 and @Ollie Williams can help out further on this.

More research to follow...
Click to expand...
I must add this one as well for Jan. 2011 - above normal temps. along the Tropic of Cancer w/ below normal temps. from west Central Atlantic towards Europe (just like Dec. 2010) There was a significant snow storm for the southeastern states in early January of that year (despite of the La-Nina) I believe the SSTs along the Tropic of Cancer play a role of the patterns (similar to the principles of the ENSO)

Jan2011SSTs.jpg
 
StormWatch said:
The purpose of this research is to discover other features that correlate with the patterns across the eastern US since the past several winters have been mild with above normal temperatures. I believe there is a stronger influence for the Eastern US than the drivers of the Pacific Ocean and it comes down to alternations of SSTs in the Atlantic. I have been doing some research of the AMO and the surface temperature anomalies particularly across the eastern US/Canada during the winter months (Dec.-Feb.) I have discovered that, when there are below normal SSTs from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, (through the north Atlantic) the surface temperatures were below normal across the Eastern US despite the status of the ENSO.

For example: Dec. 2010 - there was a La-Nina, but the SSTs were below normal from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, and much of the Eastern US experienced below/much below normal surface temperatures despite of the La-Nina - in figure i. is the SST anomalies, and I have drawn out to what I'm discussing. I have also discovered that, when the SSTs are above normal along the Tropic of Cancer and below (off the western coast of Africa) the SSTs to the north of there across the North Atlantic become below normal. I think it has to do with the Gulf current/stream, this area of research needs more work, such as obtaining cross-sections of temp. and depth along the Tropic of Cancer. I think the depth of the warmer waters caused all of the dense cold waters to circulate north, but I'll need cross-sections to verify that.

View attachment 98426
Figure i. - SST anomalies below normal across west central Atlantic towards Europe of Dec. 2010.

In result of the below normal SSTs from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, much of the eastern US (despite of a La-Nina) experienced much below normal temperatures in Dec. 2010. Even Europe experienced much below normal temperatures. (Note: In comparison between figure i. and figure ii. - in figure i. you can see warmer SSTs south of Greenland and along the eastern seaboard (Gulf Stream) this resulted in above normal surface temperatures in far eastern Canada/southern Greenland in figure ii.)

View attachment 98428
Figure ii.

In comparison of the current SST anomalies in the Atlantic (Figure iii.) I have found a closest match of Dec. 2007. The SSTs aren't below normal from the west central Atlantic towards Europe, so I think the warmth will continue across the eastern US in the weeks to come. Below is a comparison of the SST anomalies from Dec. 2007 and current. (Dec. 2007 - a La-Nina was present.)

View attachment 98424
Figure iii. - Comparison of SST anomalies of Dec. 2007 and current.

Based from the SSTs in the Atlantic (excluding the ENSO), this winter is similar to Dec. 2007. Below in figure iv. is the surface temperature anomalies, and you can see at that time, much of the eastern US experienced above normal temperatures (especially the southeastern US)

View attachment 98425
Figure iv.


Late this month, the SSTs could become colder across the north Atlantic as it's looking likely a trough is to setup over the north Atlantic. In figure v. the GEFS is indicating below normal air temperature late this month over the North Atlantic that may result in lower SSTs across the north Atlantic later on in January.

View attachment 98429 Figure v.

The coldest air of the winter season just may transition to the southeast sometime during the 2 or 3 week in January depending how the SSTs evolve (in the Atlantic) over the coming weeks.

Perhaps @GaWx , @Webberweather53 and @Ollie Williams can help out further on this.

More research to follow...
Click to expand...

1. Could the Atlantic SST anomaly patterns you show have a correlation of sorts with NAO status?

2. Outside of equatorial regions like ENSO, I sometimes wonder about chicken vs egg. In other words, instead of the SST anomaly pattern leading to atmospheric temperatures patterns, could it sometimes be the other way around where the atmospheric pattern has more of an influence on the SST anomalies than the SST anomalies have on the atmospheric pattern?
 
Ollie Williams said:
@Webberweather53 should add AMO to his large telecommunications excel file. Then, I could run 500mb anomalies from that.
Click to expand...

12 Strongest AMO calendar years (records since 1856): @Webberweather53 and @StormWatch among others may be interested

1. 1878 +0.463
2. 1998 +0.345
3. 1944 +0.339
4. 2010 +0.321
5. 2016 +0.314
6. 1937 +0.287
7. 2017 +0.287
8. 1952 +0.281
9. 2020 +0.275
10. 2005 +0.264
11. 1877 +0.252
12. 1953 +0.250

Despite the record high OCT and Nov, 2021 will not make the top 12 warmest because it started too cool (edit: barring Dec being way out of sight warm).
 
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GaWx said:
1. Could the Atlantic SST anomaly patterns you show have a correlation of sorts with NAO status?

2. Outside of equatorial regions like ENSO, I sometimes wonder about chicken vs egg. In other words, instead of the SST anomaly pattern leading to atmospheric temperatures patterns, could it sometimes be the other way around where the atmospheric pattern has more of an influence on the SST anomalies than the SST anomalies have on the atmospheric pattern?
Click to expand...
Good questions

I'm still finding answers for your first question. More to this in this journal entry - https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/15/jcli-d-14-00413.1.xml

For your second question, it's likely both - vice versa. But, the SSTs along the Tropic of Cancer definitely influences the SSTs in the north Atlantic as well and not only atmospheric changes. The SSTs along the Tropic of Cancer influence the SSTs further north because of the Gulf stream/current.
 
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