• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

packfan98 said:
looks like the 6z EPS was improved over 0z much like the operational Euro. Still has the most western tracks through NC compared to GEFS
Click to expand...
Yeah a smidge of improvement, not bad your way

1642485600-HH1rqGjFG2E.png


1642507200-71HEaOLbRi4.png
 
Shaggy said:
This is it imo. Any wholesale change's will happen in the next 2 to Maybe 3 cycles. After that it's it's lock.
Click to expand...
You know what's gonna suck? If this thing shift S/SE to almost a perfect track but slows down so that by the time it arrives we've lost most of the cold air, not out of the question
 
metwannabe said:
But...... and maybe I'm wishcasting, but, the Euro isn't necessarily in it's wheelhouse at this juncture. I'll reserve too many negative comments (for Central/Eastern NC) until we see what the 12z suite looks like. If the NAM/RGEM still show very good cold dry air feed with a smidge better slp track, then could still be a significant event around here. Still lots to sort out
Click to expand...

I don't like a lot tbh. I think you have a better chance at a slightly longer duration period of snow to start but 850s already near 0c as the precip is starting means snow will likely be brief, no good initial fgen push yet that I've seen. Looking at the nam soundings vs ptype I think with the dry nose present between 875 and 950 we can over perform on ip vs zr through mid morning early afternoon but eventually we go to zr by that point though we are inching so close to freezing at the sfc it may not be of huge consequence like it'll be even 50 miles west of us.
 
Last edited:
metwannabe said:
You know what's gonna suck? If this thing shift S/SE to almost a perfect track but slows down so that by the time it arrives we've lost most of the cold air, not out of the question
Click to expand...
Yeah that is still plausible. You know sometimes models show a storm in the long range but lose it mid range only to bring it back to some form the original long range depiction. Usually it shows no storm. I've been wondering as these slight SE adjustments show up if we were gonna eventually see it revert back to its early depictions. Not sure we get that but it's possible I suppose.
 
For the central NC folks, this will be another "right on the line" event. Many transitions between p-types. The big question right now is do we go above freezing (to rain). Most models say we do, but there is some thought that the CAD may hold stronger. Lee Ringer (Spectrum Meteorologist) thinks there is a possibility this could occur. Maybe the latest data being collected (storm is now moving on shore) and the short-range models (now coming in range) will make things a little clearer later today.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Can't say that I blame them based on what occurred overnight. I'm honestly skeptical of any backside impact other than novel flakes.
Click to expand...
What’s weird is they say they went on the cooler side of guidance, but looking at EPS trends it seems things look better for us, not worse.

Getting into the weeds a bit about temperatures, the ECMWF is
slightly colder across the far NE at the onset of precipitation
through about 18Z Sun. The GFS is much faster bringing in the cold
air aloft, which makes sense because it is the faster solution. This
becomes important because it speaks to the strength/depth of the
warm nose aloft which plays a large role in ptype forecasting. GFS
model soundings look pretty consistent with the strength of the warm
nose as in previous runs. The ECMWF has a slimmer warm nose, but
starts out colder at the surface. The GFS has bounced back and forth
a bit with surface temps. The NAM is just starting to give us a peek
at into early Sunday, and is closer to the ECMWF with colder temps
at the surface. Still think that it is prudent to go on the cooler
side of the temp guidance, especially since it will be precipitating
much of Saturday, which can definitely reinforce the wedge.
 
FallsLake said:
For the central NC folks, this will be another "right on the line" event. Many transitions between p-types. The big question right now is do we go above freezing (to rain). Most models say we do, but there is some thought that the CAD may hold stronger. Lee Ringer (Spectrum Meteorologist) thinks there is a possibility this could occur. Maybe the latest data being collected (storm is now moving on shore) and the short-range models (now coming in range) will make things a little clearer later today.
Click to expand...
If the CAD holds stronger than at some point the models have to show the slp track further east, it will not hold on long at all if it tracks inland like they are all showing. That's my experience anyway and according to @Lickwx I've got the most experience on here by about 100 years Lol
 
Wilkes is now under extreme impacts by Blacksburg. But I think Ice will save us and lower snow to around 6”. We can deal with that no prob
 
metwannabe said:
If the CAD holds stronger than at some point the models have to show the slp track further east, it will not hold on long at all if it tracks inland like they are all showing. That's my experience anyway and according to @Lickwx I've got the most experience on here by about 100 years Lol
Click to expand...
That's true. It might be until the storm is occurring, do we see the track adjusting eastward. Regardless of what happens, this is a fun storm to track.
 
Like most storms around here we really have no clue outside of ~72 hours. It’s crunch time now with our energy being sampled out west and then up north later today. It can go either way imo.
 
TigerSnow said:
Like most storms around here we really have no clue outside of ~72 hours. It’s crunch time now with our energy being sampled out west and then up north later today. It can go either way imo.
Click to expand...
Not really things have been really consistent it’s just social media confusing people with snow maps when it’s clearly a mixed bag. It’s been a i77 snow storm for days with severe ice down to Charlotte metro and even further south. Yea there have been trends but by and large this storm has been “easy” with no rug pulls.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
What’s weird is they say they went on the cooler side of guidance, but looking at EPS trends it seems things look better for us, not worse.

Getting into the weeds a bit about temperatures, the ECMWF is
slightly colder across the far NE at the onset of precipitation
through about 18Z Sun. The GFS is much faster bringing in the cold
air aloft, which makes sense because it is the faster solution. This
becomes important because it speaks to the strength/depth of the
warm nose aloft which plays a large role in ptype forecasting. GFS
model soundings look pretty consistent with the strength of the warm
nose as in previous runs. The ECMWF has a slimmer warm nose, but
starts out colder at the surface. The GFS has bounced back and forth
a bit with surface temps. The NAM is just starting to give us a peek
at into early Sunday, and is closer to the ECMWF with colder temps
at the surface. Still think that it is prudent to go on the cooler
side of the temp guidance, especially since it will be precipitating
much of Saturday, which can definitely reinforce the wedge.
Click to expand...
Sounds like they're hedging due to the uncertainty of the warm nose based on that, and those usually aren't sampled until its go time. Gonna be tight either way.
 
1642081404209.png
First call map this afternoon. We will likely switch to sleet for a period in the northern upstate and southern mountains but long durations of snow on both the front and bank end are likely at this point. Along the 85 corridor, Long durations of snow during the beginning and back end are likely as well but sleet and freezing rain will likely mix in for a few hours as well. The central and southern upstate and SE of 85 will likely see that first thump and back end snow but a switch to sleet and especially freezing rain is likely and will probably start pretty fast. Below I20 and towards i95 we probably start with snow, then switch to ICE before a switch to rain and finishing with snow looks to be the case. Obviously with the wave now being on land or coming on land will move things around and we can really start looking at the NAM this afternoon and evening to start getting an idea on temp profiles to adjust totals.
 
metwannabe said:
If the CAD holds stronger than at some point the models have to show the slp track further east, it will not hold on long at all if it tracks inland like they are all showing. That's my experience anyway and according to @Lickwx I've got the most experience on here by about 100 years Lol
Click to expand...
FallsLake said:
That's true. It might be until the storm is occurring, do we see the track adjusting eastward. Regardless of what happens, this is a fun storm to track.
Click to expand...

We going to have to get some big changes for the SLP to track along the coast. With still 3 days away this could keep ticking to the NW.

ecmwf-deterministic-se-mslp-2377600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f-2377600.png
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Not really things have been really consistent it’s just social media confusing people with snow maps when it’s clearly a mixed bag. It’s been a i77 snow storm for days with severe ice down to Charlotte metro and even further south. Yea there have been trends but by and large this storm has been “easy” with no rug pulls.
Click to expand...

Consistent? Maybe with a winter storm being modeled for the region, yes but for many of us, it's been a lot of options on the table with regards to front end thumps, p-types etc. You know not all of us live in a cage.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Consistent? Maybe with a winter storm being modeled for the region, yes but for many of us, it's been a lot of options on the table with regards to front end thumps, p-types etc. You know not all of us live in a cage.
Click to expand...
Cage should read Cad. Yea there’s always the fine transition line but I think most Mets would agree it’s been a more consistent winter storm than in recent memory. A lot of us here do live in the heart of the Cad.
 
FallsLake said:
For the central NC folks, this will be another "right on the line" event. Many transitions between p-types. The big question right now is do we go above freezing (to rain). Most models say we do, but there is some thought that the CAD may hold stronger. Lee Ringer (Spectrum Meteorologist) thinks there is a possibility this could occur. Maybe the latest data being collected (storm is now moving on shore) and the short-range models (now coming in range) will make things a little clearer later today.
Click to expand...
I remember not too long ago we were talking about this being one of the strongest CADs in almost a decade. Now we're right on the line like we are with your average run of the mill CAD with the low tracking right up the middle of it. Fun times.
 
From 06z Euro.

First image is dewpoints as the precip is moving into N GA - this is what good damming looks like with below zero and single digit dewpoints in VA.

Second image is sfc temperatures 12 hours later at 1pm Sunday. 23 degrees in SC Upstate / 21 in Winston/Greensboro

yMuh9Cl.png


F1iiWky.png
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Not really things have been really consistent it’s just social media confusing people with snow maps when it’s clearly a mixed bag. It’s been a i77 snow storm for days with severe ice down to Charlotte metro and even further south. Yea there have been trends but by and large this storm has been “easy” with no rug pulls.
Click to expand...
I hope that’s wrong. Being north of Charlotte I want zilch if I have to deal with ice and long term power outages. Been there before and want nothing to do with that.
 
SD said:
I don't like a lot tbh. I think you have a better chance at a slightly longer duration period of snow to start but 850s already near 0c as the precip is starting means snow will likely be brief, no goof initial fgen push yet that I've seen. Looking at the nam soundings vs ptype I think with the dry nose present between 875 and 950 we can over perform on ip vs zr through mid morning early afternoon but eventually we go to zr by that point though we are inching so close to freezing at the sfc it may not be of huge consequence like it'll be even 50 miles west of us.
Click to expand...

I know if eastern NC was in the bullseye 3 days out we would 100% see a trend to the bad in the last 36 hrs....The changes needed to get this to be a snow maker for central or eastern NC are the kind of trends that we never see lol.....even worse is at this point about the best you can hope for is a trend to a ice storm and well that's a hard pass for me.
 
cyclogent said:
hrrr_mslp_wind_us_49.png
Click to expand...
48 hr HRRR, so big nugget of salt, but it had the 850 mb low and surface low still moving SE at that hour. I need that 850 mb low to stay south of me for any chance at backside snow, so I'm watching the trends closely. I don't want this thing amplifying until it gets to Panama City!
 
HRRR at 48. You can see our system entering the South from the NW while the cold pushes in from the NE.
hr storm.pnghr upper.png
 
TigerSnow said:
I hope that’s wrong. Being north of Charlotte I want zilch if I have to deal with ice and long term power outages. Been there before and want nothing to do with that.
Click to expand...
This is one of the rare times I agree with Brad P. He’s been skiing in Colorado with Jim Cantore but he’s been screaming at people (paid weather sites) for misleading all snow maps circulating on FB. It’s always been ice but communication sucks with people using the weather channel app with no human input.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top