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Pattern Januworry

SD said:
Yep let's see where the 12z runs go. Might have to fire up a thread today there were a decent amount of eps members with snow for TN and Northern parts of ms/al/nc. I'm worried we miss out as a region and the gfs is too far south
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Been too busy with this recent storm what you think about north bama??
 
Flotown said:
Been too busy with this recent storm what you think about north bama??
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Mainly rain with the potential for a quick burst of snow or Sleet to start. Really think the better potential for an consequential winter precip is along and north of 40 in TN. That said there were a decent amount of eps members that got snow accumulations down into the first layer or 2 of counties in AL. Want to see of the 12z runs continue the slow north and flatter leaking or if we can hold steady or inch south
 
SD said:
Mainly rain with the potential for a quick burst of snow or Sleet to start. Really think the better potential for an consequential winter precip is along and north of 40 in TN. That said there were a decent amount of eps members that got snow accumulations down into the first layer or 2 of counties in AL. Want to see of the 12z runs continue the slow north and flatter leaking or if we can hold steady or inch south
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Thanks
 
Storm5 said:
Not sure why we care what they think . He's clientele is the Midwest and Ohio valley . Seasonal temps for them can translate to below normal temps in the SE


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We probably see a not so good pattern 1/9-14 may still avg near to bn but the hope is certainly retrogression after that brings us back to a good pattern 15-20. If not I feel bad a for the staff around here
 
Storm5 said:
Not sure why we care what they think . He's clientele is the Midwest and Ohio valley . Seasonal temps for them can translate to below normal temps in the SE

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Agreed, especially if a +PNA dominated pattern would hold. The suggested pattern through mid month is like night and day vs December through yesterday. Most days look BN to near normal in much of the SE with a good shot at three Arctic highs between 1/7 and 1/20 hopefully helped out by the MJO. Granted it doesn’t look as cold as it could get due to the lack of -AO and lack of -NAO, but a nice +PNA is on our side for a pattern that leans BN averaged out.

BAMwx’s Michael Clark sounds frustrated in just about every video. That can affect objectivity.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
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Bam is probably right. But there has never been any signal at all for sustained cold in the east so nothing has changed. A one to two week pattern is all most are hoping for. Right now the pattern doesn't look great moving forward like it did a couple days ago. There is no signal at all for a decent storm for the snow starved regions of the SE. I hope we pull something out somehow in January. But another year of just novelty events like the one in Raleigh today could very well happen. And GSP getting blanked completely for only the 2nd year ever wouldn't shock me at all either. Yes there is more emotion in that statement than actual evidence but when you're in these streaks they're ridiculously hard to break for whatever reason. Hopefully our luck changes soon.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Bam is probably right. But there has never been any signal at all for sustained cold in the east so nothing has changed. A one to two week pattern is all most are hoping for. Right now the pattern doesn't look great moving forward like it did a couple days ago. There is no signal at all for a decent storm for the snow starved regions of the SE. I hope we pull something out somehow in January. But another year of just novelty events like the one in Raleigh today could very well happen. And GSP getting blanked completely for only the 2nd year ever wouldn't shock me at all either. Yes there is more emotion in that statement than actual evidence but when you're in these streaks they're ridiculously hard to break for whatever reason. Hopefully our luck changes soon.
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I agree with much of what you said but I don’t know about this:

“Right now the pattern doesn't look great moving forward like it did a couple days ago.”

I’m not saying it necessarily looks “great” now but i don’t think it looked “great” a few days ago either. I think it still looks pretty similar to how it looked a few days ago in the SE (we’re not in the Midwest)….not “great” but pretty darn good for a pattern leaning BN temperaturewise in the SE and like night and day vs last month.

In summary, the SE was never forecasted to have an “A” pattern, but more like a “B” and that “B” still appears likely. It is hard to object to a “B” after having F minus minus December through yesterday. A “B” in the coldest month of the year would be more than fine with me. And for those of you in areas (unlike here) that get wintry precip from time to time in normal winters (the vast majority of the board), it looks promising for more opportunities. I just want it to be cool to cold dominated, which is winter enough for me.
 
GaWx said:
I agree with much of what you said but I don’t know about this:

“Right now the pattern doesn't look great moving forward like it did a couple days ago.”

I’m not saying it necessarily looks “great” now but i don’t think it looked “great” a few days ago either. I think it still looks pretty similar to how it looked a few days ago in the SE (we’re not in the Midwest)….not “great” but pretty darn good for a pattern leaning BN temperaturewise in the SE and like night and day vs last month.

In summary, the SE was never forecasted to have an “A” pattern, but more like a “B” and that “B” still appears likely. It is hard to object to a “B” after having F minus minus December through yesterday. A “B” in the coldest month of the year would be more than fine with me. And for those of you in areas (unlike here) that get wintry precip from time to time in normal winters (the vast majority of the board), it looks promising for more opportunities. I just want it to be cool to cold dominated, which is winter enough for me.
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It's certainly better than December by far. It depends on perspective. For you average temps would be a B or maybe even an A-. The ones wanting accumulating snow from ATL up to RDU I'd give it a C-. It's not a shutout pattern like December and something could pop off anytime. But considering how our lucks been since 2018 it's probably wise not to get too excited lol
 
What would push these storm South, Like this weekends system? I mean I don't see anything that would cause it to move further South to affect anyone outside of TN

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