NoSnowATL
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
Just checking to see if winter is still cancelled after Monday
597DM
Member
There a thread about it
I would just like to point out I called a pattern change and rumblings from December 27-January 3rd weeks and weeks ago … we now may have snow on the ground on January 3rd and if that’s not a pattern change i dont know what Is (yes this is my victory lap for once lol)
LovingGulfLows
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Wouldn't call it a pattern change. This would definitely be a needle threader. Well timed wave in between two massive ridges and a very marginal cold air source. That could happen anytime in winter in any regime.
Yep, sometimes things just happen, even during a bad pattern, that system in feb 2020 for NC was a good example of snow during a bad pattern
Before this storm consistent 70 degree days and a massive SER … after this storm none of that .. no dominating SER no 70s actual colder air .. pattern = changed
PNA trends ?
GEFS is really liking this system for some reason 
Let’s get it in while our luck is hot
Since we’re so good at threading the needle let’s rolllll 
GEFS likes the idea of another secondary low setup (the mean is seperate from Monday’s system) 
Like Webb has pointed out phase 7-8 are the most favorable for getting NC winter weather .. maybe that’s why we are getting so many good trends instead of the other way around .. just the pattern seeing what it’s suppose to do
Look like per today we technically in a phase 8 MJO per RMM chart. Finally 
ajr
Member
ajr
Member
Strong polar vortex means it’s less likely there will be cold shots into NA. Not ideal if you want wintry weather.
That’s a tall western ridge 
Two weeks ago the models were completely opposite of what they are forecasting now. In other words, they have no clue at that range.
D
Deleted member 609
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Feels like I’m starting to notice the GEFS trying to retrograde the pac a little to fast only for it to correct
Interesting how the GEFS struggles to pull lower heights down on the eastern side of the ridge, yet at the SFC it’s still solidly BN
Those high pressure system rolling down really keep the cold air reinforced .. possibly good for some sort of CAD watch down the road
LickWx
Member
If Charlotte doesn’t break 70 today they won’t break the December 70 degree day record . Raleigh just broke it now .
New Years lightning shots ? 
whatalife
Moderator
Just a slight r2r change on the euro.
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packfan98
Moderator
Wow! Looks like it’s picking up on the mjo going to phase 8?Just a slight r2r change on the euro.
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whatalife
Moderator
That was my thinking. Hopefully we are going to continue heading in the right direction over the next coming days.
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That’s some legitimately cold air on the euro, also looks like we’re about to do something nice in the pacific 
Can’t wait to see BAMs next update you can almost always bet what ever they predict is probably opposite of what happens .. so actually I want them to keep predicting warmth
If this isn’t a pattern change, then I don’t know what one is. It is a huge pattern change going from about as warm as ever for the SE in late December through January 2nd to either BN or NN about every day of the first half of January. The main reason for that is the typically reliable PNA going from strongly negative to positive.
This is gonna end well 
Bruh thank you Apparently I was crazy for that statment ? Like we’re all seeing the same thing right?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yes, this is definitely a big pattern change. (from a very -PNA to a +PNA)
Indeed. What’s happening is that the severe cold anomalies in W Canada/NW US/N Plains and warm E US caused by the strong -PNA are replaced by much warmer W Canada/NW US/N Plains and mainly cold E US (including much of Midwest and into TX) (mainly BN with some NN) as the PNA flips to +. Textbook pattern change.
D
Deleted member 609
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I'll take this
