We get the benefit of CAD; but this type of setup is usually just for our west of the Apps friends. The mountains slow the cold advance just enough to allow the precip to scoot on by first.
I think this is fine at this point lots of time for very minor changes to happen and tweak this much better but no one should’ve been banking on this being a legit event at all so far .. not the most ideal set up so we just watch for a novelty event which is all I’m expecting if it comes to fruition at this point .. plus we all know we’re going to get NAMd at least once ?
The NAM will certainly be beautiful at some point in the next few days ?
Yep the good old namings we gonna take will be hilarious
Littlestick, Poiman, weenieelliot, say the long range was a dumsterfire??? Your map and my screenshot, say different!
Looking at NOAA’s NAO and AO forecast graphs, both do look to go slightly positive here in the next week, which is why early next week’s cold shot is in and out fairly quickly… after that though it appears they both trend back to negative, which would make sense with the MJO progression. BTW, NOAA has a done really good job forecasting those lately
Interesting that that is the best yet for some areas
18z GEFS disagrees
Here you go.
All this negativity is sad! This was a fun read! This afternoon’s AFD for Friday/Saturday system
Certainly things can go boom! I don't think the GFS/Euro will have a good handle on it until 1-2 days prior, or even the day of. Sometimes they can not detect some features well due to the lower res. There is still model inconsistency, even with the GEFS members. Of course, the high res mesoscale models will show better clarity since they are at a much higher res.
There is still a low, it's a surface low that is embedded within the boundary. The setup looks good at 500mb concerning no shear, however there is shear taking place in the mid layers, which isn't good. If the shearing takes place, this means the system would likely give away to flurries on the back side of the boundary.
