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Pattern Januworry

Overnight disco from FFC on Sunday night snow chances. Such as they are…


The final piece of all this is what happens on the backside of the
front/sfc low that forms due to the last shortwave. A lot of that is
going to depend on the strength of the cold air, how quickly it
moves into GA, the timing and strength of the shortwave...needless
to say, there is a LOT of uncertainty that remains in place about
any potential winter weather. The 0Z suite has been less aggressive
with the cold air, and the EURO less aggressive with the strength of
the shortwave, so there has been some trimming back on the light
snow showers and light mix possibility in this forecast package.
Want to continue to emphasize that we are still seeing large run to
run variance, and even ensemble variance, in what happens with this
across GA. Don`t take any one model run as truth, as the picture
likely won`t be much clearer for several days.

Lusk
 
iGRXY said:
Along and west of the mountains that is fairly believable and a good output of what probably will happen if we can get the cold air rushing in fast enough. Personally I think the only places in NC that will have a chance at seeing flakes fly is along and east of 95. Cold air is always slower coming across the mountains than what the models show and its hard for anyone in the piedmont or upstate to score in these types of setups of cold chasing moisture.
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Agreed. Would doubt anyone outside of the mountains sees much, as these cold-air chasing scenarios never really pan too well for most of us.

The trough did dig deeper with a more positive tilt on this run and slowed some compared to 6Z. Classic Miller B setup here, and we'd need a much deeper and stronger/slower dig to get anything out of this. Will at least cool us down some heading into the start of next week.
 
IMO we are very close to getting something interesting with this system .. many gefs have some sort of break out of snow at the tail end of this system with cold air collapsing the column .. has the potential for dynamic snow with heavier rates which is great for lucky lollipop winners .. let’s see what the euro chooses
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
IMO we are very close to getting something interesting with this system .. many gefs have some sort of break out of snow at the tail end of this system with cold air collapsing the column .. has the potential for dynamic snow with heavier rates which is great for lucky lollipop winners .. let’s see what the euro chooses
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I think you said what has to happen for that GFS run to become a reality… we know that cold will be slower coming over the mountains, but if we can get strong enough dynamics in play to quickly crash the column then this could be something. I don’t give it a great chance of happening, but I am mildly intrigued since this showing inside 6 days now.
 
SD said:
Probably through tx into ark/la then turns ENE toward east TN. Eastern half of nc/sc likely has a complete meltdown as parts of Ar/La/ms/Al/Ga/TN/upstate/wnc get pummeled
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Surprised you think it will turn that late. Id be happy if WNC cashed in.
 
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