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Pattern Januworry

NoSnowATL said:
Your winter was never in doubt my friend. Enjoy because you will always have more then us.
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I really wonder if it’s a guaranteed thing here! Having a dusting of sleet and a dusting of snow so far, is kind of reminiscent of SC. Saturday looks like a monster storm , but I’m tiptoeing the rain mid snow line!
 
olhausen said:
This has shown up for 2 runs in a row for this upcoming Sunday so there’s that.
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There’s no doubt change is coming at least away from this god awful record setting warmth day in and day out. Weather or not it will stay for a while is obviously still up in the air. Either way the major warmth looks to be coming to an end starting this Sunday.
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But would the ratio actually be 10:1 ?
 
Closed 591dm ridge in the north Pacific is ridiculous. No -NAO, -AO, MJO phase 8 or Judah Cohens model can save the SE from burning with that there. My opinion all you need to look at on models is the N Pac and if it doesn't change then don't bother looking downstream until it does.
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12Z Euro
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Dewpoint Dan said:
1-2" in the western Atlanta suburbs. Do you really think thats realistic ?
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In that setup on the euro? Yes. Still a good amount to iron out though. More phasing means less/no snow, more separation or attempting to cut off the trailer/srn stream may mean more snow.
 
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From FFC’s overnight AFD. Be interesting to see if the 12Z runs make them more bullish on the snow potential in this afternoon’s disco:


GFS and EURO 0Z runs both show another shortwave kicking in over the
top of this cold front on Sunday and developing another low along
it. Timing and placement of this will be key, and will definitely
want to see it in place across a few more runs before buying in, but
this could keep enough moisture in place over the top of the cold
front to allow for some light winter precipitation over portions of
north GA. Have decided to add some very light snow and rain snow mix
and Sunday night as a result. Will continue to access through the
week, as there are many small adjustments to the players in this
scenario that could drastically change the forecast. Either way,
this cold front would finally bring an end to our run of record or
near record temps, and as stated above, would finally bring some
more seasonable air and subfreezing temperatures into the area.

Lusk
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Closed 591dm ridge in the north Pacific is ridiculous. No -NAO, -AO, MJO phase 8 or Judah Cohens model can save the SE from burning with that there. My opinion all you need to look at on models is the N Pac and if it doesn't change then don't bother looking downstream until it does.
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Love the 6 hr time stamp!
 
Rain Cold said:
Both look pretty crappy, tbh. GFS probably supports more CAD than the Euro. Hopefully, they are both in process to transition to something better at that time.
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I think the Euro has a better shot to transition to something better a lot quicker. That GFS run is hideous and looks just like what we have now in the Pac. Like you said this is a very persistent stubborn pattern and will be hard to get out of. Hopefully the GFS proves it's the garbage we think it is and is wrong. But the Euro hasnt been great either.
 
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