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Pattern Januworry

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
We're finally getting somewhere now. I remember saying last weekend we should start seeing encouraging signs by this weekend if the pattern was going to change the 1st week of Jan.
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Just hoping we can keep the trends going in our favor. It would suck to see this be nothing more than a head fake.


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5 day means days 10-15…
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StormWatch said:
Keeping a watch on the upper PV (10mb) is helpful to watch for colder patterns. In the shorter term, there might be a slight cold push towards the east during the Jan. 01-02 time period as the southern portion of the upper PV wobbles towards the east (in figure i.)

View attachment 99094 Figure i. - GEFS, upper PV (10mb)

I don't think the cold push would be strong enough to cause winter weather due to a dominant southwest wind flow looking to setup next week into the New Year. The pattern late next week into the New Year is going to be like a strong El-Nino pattern with stale mild air and moist, with waves of rain. I'm beginning to think there could be a response from the ENSO. Over the past 7 days, the SSTs have been warming along the equatorial Pacific shown in figure ii. (We should keep an eye on this)

View attachment 99095
Figure ii. - SSTs along the equatorial Pacific

I don't believe the north Pacific ridge is going anywhere due to upper level ridging. As the upper PV evolves (and wobbles) the north Pacific ridge may translate a bit to the east favoring a -EPO pattern. I think a -EPO could form sometime during the 2nd week of January. Shown in figure iii. is the long range GEFS upper PV (10mb) and it shows that the PV is elongated nearly on a northwest to southeast axis that should favor a colder eastern US. There certainly could be a (or nearly) "wall-to-wall" cold at some point during the 2nd week of January.

View attachment 99096
Figure iii. - Long range GEFS 10mb, vaild Jan. 9th.
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No
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If it’s a head fake then I’m really done hoping lol
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For our sanity, it is important to realize this COULD easily still be another headfake based on cold bias in week 2 but hopefully not!! I just looked at the EPS run from a week ago. Then, it had for the SE US as a whole the period 12/26-1/1 (in week 2 then) averaging only slightly AN with 12/30-1/1 normal. Folks were starting to get optimistic again (including myself) as H5 was suggesting a pattern change during week 2. Here was the 850 anomaly map for the 120 hours ending 12Z on 1/2:

4166E6A6-0153-42C1-9E4F-640AC766DF00.png

At RDU, it had 850 at only +1 for the 5 days ending 12Z on 1/2. It was then significantly cooler and I among others was liking it a lot thinking finally a light at the end of the tunnel.
Unfortunately, that same period is now at +7.5 there and it has 12/26-1/1 as one of the warmest on record/5.5 F warmer per day at 2M than it had a week ago. For 12/29-1/1 alone, the EPS is now a whopping 7 F warmer than it was a week ago for the E US! And this is with a -AO and slight -NAO though they’ve trended much weaker.

So, is today’s colder 12Z EPS run still another headfake for the E US? Nobody knows. It has for the 11-15 the NE US BN and the SE normal:

CF433E5D-1B60-4F84-823E-CBC30A3464CC.png

Will this still look this way one week from now? I sure hope so. But until we can get an Aleutian trough/+PNA reestablished like we last had in late November, all bets are off, especially with us soon to lose the -AO/-NAO. I love optimism but I hate being fooled over and over. Fool me once, etc.
The EPS looks like it is slowly trending toward an Aleutian trough/+PNA late in the runs today, and that is exactly what I want to actually verify. But……
 
GaWx said:
For our sanity, it is important to realize this COULD easily still be another headfake based on cold bias in week 2 but hopefully not!! I just looked at the EPS run from a week ago. Then, it had for the SE US as a whole the period 12/26-1/1 (in week 2 then) averaging only slightly AN with 12/30-1/1 normal. Folks were starting to get optimistic again (including myself) as H5 was suggesting a pattern change during week 2. Here was the 850 anomaly map for the 120 hours ending 12Z on 1/2:

View attachment 99171

At RDU, it had 850 at only +1 for the 5 days ending 12Z on 1/2. It was then significantly cooler and I among others was liking it a lot thinking finally a light at the end of the tunnel.
Unfortunately, that same period is now at +7.5 there and it has 12/26-1/1 as one of the warmest on record/5.5 F warmer per day at 2M than it had a week ago. For 12/29-1/1 alone, the EPS is now a whopping 7 F warmer than it was a week ago for the E US! And this is with a -AO and slight -NAO though they’ve trended much weaker.

So, is today’s colder 12Z EPS run still another headfake for the E US? Nobody knows. It has for the 11-15 the NE US BN and the SE normal:

View attachment 99172

Will this still look this way one week from now? I sure hope so. But until we can get an Aleutian trough/+PNA reestablished like we last had in late November, all bets are off, especially with us soon to lose the -AO/-NAO. I love optimism but I hate being fooled over and over. Fool me once, etc.
The EPS looks like it is slowly trending toward an Aleutian trough/+PNA late in the runs today, and that is exactly what I want to actually verify. But……
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Larry, if the alutian ridge dont break down or shift, its probably another head fake most likely. If it does, then we may be looking better
 
smast16 said:
I worded that wrong. We're gonna see cold dropping out of Canada for sure. Just on the wrong side of the Rockies.
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I think it is gonna bleed East, more and more modeling pointing at it. GBO!
Mr. Golf said:
Larry, if the alutian ridge dont break down or shift, its probably another head fake most likely. If it does, then we may be looking better
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tennessee storm said:
18z let’s not get to carrried away yet. Still ways out. Bet house n farm this won’t look same 0z tonite
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Oh please it is was warm severe you would be getting carried away at hour 384.?
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Seems to always be 300+ hours out
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I doubt this one is a mirage. Details remain to be seen but a monstrous arctic air mass will probably get unleashed onto N America during the 2nd week of January if any significant ridging goes north of Alaska, which is now shown on most ensembles. The Aleutian trough and remnant -NAO will both encourage whatever cold air gets dumped into the plains to come east at least intermittently
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don’t think here locally that’ll be true. More like extremely wild swings from mild-seasonable to bitterly cold possible. Not much room for in between or general consistency in a pattern like this
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Would need it to swing through and entrench. Verbatim its not ideal for the Carolinas. Definitely sets us the possibility for some overrunning down the line if we can find a way to let it bleed East and set up shop. This is all way out there but it’s something to talk about for the next 3-4 hours I guess.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS is fixing to drop the motherload of Arctic air onto N America

View attachment 99178
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Looks like a quasi-omega block. As long as ridge extension remains in the Epac, the bulk of the cold will be directed west or central US. If we get/keep blocking in eastern Canada, we'll be cool here with that setup, but we probably won't get overly cold here for more than a day or so.

I'd love to see the bottom of the SW trough break off and retrograde west. Would pump a ridge over the western US and connect to the big EPO block, with an undercutting jet. Then we'd be ready to roll.
 
The pattern is is setting up nicely for overrunning which is perfect if you want snow. Typically don’t have to worry about a whole lot of mixed bag stuff. And usually a major swath of the southeast gets the snow. It just matters where the rain snow line sets up and everyone north of there from the western south to the southeast score.
 
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