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Pattern Januworry

FallsLake said:
Yeah, you would think with this look (with dew points falling into the teens in NC) that good things would happen. But no....

Day 10:
View attachment 98819
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At the end of the day this being 10 days out is a great looks .. many things can change with regard to position of storm strength and position of high pressure .. we don’t want a storm to show up over us 10 days out cause more than likely it won’t end up there at verification time .. looks great to me
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
At the end of the day this being 10 days out is a great looks .. many things can change with regard to position of storm strength and position of high pressure .. we don’t want a storm to show up over us 10 days out cause more than likely it won’t end up there at verification time .. looks great to me
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There’s no gefs support at all
 
Have to admit, while I was generally on the right track several weeks ago about us getting a -EPO and -NAO late in the month of Dec and about us see a classic nina look for a while in late Dec, w/ cold getting dumped first into the west then Great Plains, I was definitely not expecting us to pull out the strongest Dec -PNA in 13 years or for this pattern to be as persistent as it’s forecast to be into early January. That expectation/forecast I had for something decent in early-mid January is beginning to slip away (hopefully that doesn’t continue). I figured back in early Dec, with a La Niña and easterly QBO, the pattern would be slower than expected to change because the MJO would slow down in the West Pacific, but this is undoubtedly much slower than even I thought and I’m trying to figure out why. Glad at least I wasn’t like Bamwx or others and forecasted things to flip around Dec 20th ?
 
NCSNOW said:
This shows how the PNA should always be at the top of TC wishlist. It dictates more than anything the winter wx opportunities down here in the SE, Not the Atlantic. Allthough obviously its nice to have it cooperate. Need the Cold 1st and foremost.
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NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days, which suggests that the NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. The reason behind this is that the NAO directly impacts the large scale atmospheric pattern over the eastern U.S. on a daily timescale, whereas the ENSO pattern indirectly effects the eastern U.S. atmospheric pattern by altering global circulations, and does so on monthly to seasonal timescales.

North Carolina State Climate Office – A Public Service Center

legacy.climate.ncsu.edu legacy.climate.ncsu.edu
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yep. It'll be worth the wait if we can time it up just right for mid January. As bad as this pattern sucks around Christmas December isn't snowy very much. At least down my way mid Jan thru mid Feb is peak climo. If we only get 2 or 3 weeks I'd rather it be mid January.
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It’s pretty much peek climo for most of us. I haven’t seen a flake or even so much as a sleet pellet and most likely won’t this December. It will be the first time in at least 3-4 years that I got No wintery precip in November and December.
 
olhausen said:
It’s pretty much peek climo for most of us. I haven’t seen a flake or even so much as a sleet pellet and most likely won’t this December. It will be the first time in at least 3-4 years that I got No wintery precip in November and December.
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I’d say our peak climb for middle tn is mid January-late Jan. Not there yet but we are approaching it. We can still score in Feb and even early March. But our odds start going down as we get on the backside of Feb. I still think the western parts of the mid-south and upper south have a shot at winter weather in January.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
At the end of the day this being 10 days out is a great looks .. many things can change with regard to position of storm strength and position of high pressure .. we don’t want a storm to show up over us 10 days out cause more than likely it won’t end up there at verification time .. looks great to me
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I'd rather have nothing showing or rain and it turn into something instead of it showing snow 10 days out only for it to go poof or turn to rain.
 
snowvol said:
I’d say our peak climb for middle tn is mid January-late Jan. Not there yet but we are approaching it. We can still score in Feb and even early March. But our odds start going down as we get on the backside of Feb. I still think the western parts of the mid-south and upper south have a shot at winter weather in January.
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Wouldn’t be shocked if we get a march snow this winter. It’s been a few years now since we’ve had a 2 plus inch snow in march. I’m big believer in odds and averages and I believe we are due for a march miracle!!
 
The NPR is likely not going to move anywhere due to above normal SSTs across the North Pacific. As you can see between the SSTs and the 500mb heights, the above normal SSTs corresponds with the NPR. A +PNA is not likely through early January either.
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StormWatch said:
The NPR is likely not going to move anywhere due to above normal SSTs across the North Pacific. As you can see between the SSTs and the 500mb heights, the above normal SSTs corresponds with the NPR. A +PNA is not likely through early January either.
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The SSTs are mostly a response to atmospheric forcing and on these timescales outside the tropics, their contribution to the GOA ridge is pretty small/minimal. The atmosphere usually leads SSTs in the extratropics
 
Chazwin said:
Might as well try some new way to get cold. We sure can find plenty of ways to get warm
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Right now if we did anything substantial to move the GOA ridge in just about any direction, some substantial cold air would spill out of the western us. We just need to be decisive in how this is done. A super amped high latitude block/classic -EPO/WPO that quickly goes into the Arctic and/or suppression from a legit +EPO would also play in our favor here. Anything in between and we continue to stay mild/torchy. Just about anything but maintaining current status quo going forward is beneficial
 
Webberweather53 said:
Right now if we did anything substantial to move the GOA ridge in just about any direction, some substantial cold air would spill out of the western us. We just need to be decisive in how this is done. A super amped high latitude block/classic -EPO/WPO that quickly goes into the Arctic and/or suppression from a legit +EPO would also play in our favor here. Anything in between and we continue to stay mild/torchy. Just about anything but maintaining current status quo going forward is beneficial
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That’s what is so frustrating right now. A pattern change could occur very quickly if it would just start.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Right now if we did anything substantial to move the GOA ridge in just about any direction, some substantial cold air would spill out of the western us. We just need to be decisive in how this is done. A super amped high latitude block/classic -EPO/WPO that quickly goes into the Arctic and/or suppression from a legit +EPO would also play in our favor here. Anything in between and we continue to stay mild/torchy. Just about anything but maintaining current status quo going forward is beneficial
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Not often you hear a +EPO could be a reason we significantly cool off but that’s seemingly what the pattern was this past November, sometimes to just need a boot/faster flow 1454DDE7-1FD2-4E47-88E8-7884005D5A7D.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not often you hear a +EPO could be a reason we significantly cool off but that’s seemingly what the pattern was this past November, sometimes to just need a boot/faster flow View attachment 98840
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With a west-based-NAO and cold air already in place to our west and north, we just need to kick it out of there.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not often you hear a +EPO could be a reason we significantly cool off but that’s seemingly what the pattern was this past November, sometimes to just need a boot/faster flow View attachment 98840
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Obviously it’s all hypothetical now, but would you still see a fast flow like we saw in November if there was a -NAO?
 
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