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Pattern December to Remember

Euro gives a bit more reassurance that hopefully the east coast ridging will last less than 10 days. I think we can bet on days of warmth and CAD until the 12th and 13th. After that I am curious to see the progression to see if we can start dumping some cold this way again. Luckily with these big east coast ridges you typically will get cutting storms that act as a 50/50 low and cause CAD and then typically can give you a progressive -NAO that can temper temps back to average or slightly below average for a couple days as well.
 
iGRXY said:
Euro gives a bit more reassurance that hopefully the east coast ridging will last less than 10 days. I think we can bet on days of warmth and CAD until the 12th and 13th. After that I am curious to see the progression to see if we can start dumping some cold this way again. Luckily with these big east coast ridges you typically will get cutting storms that act as a 50/50 low and cause CAD and then typically can give you a progressive -NAO that can temper temps back to average or slightly below average for a couple days as well.
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IMO the trough on the east coast will just be transient and the SER will flex again shortly after. Any cold shots will be very temporary
 
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It’s a December to remember alright


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The Euro operational is still an outlier in the context of its own ensemble suite in the extended. Probably some timing differences amongst members smearing out the signal in the mean, but not super confident in a strong cold shot yet. Regardless, with the ridge over the Aleutians in the ensemble mean, it's honestly a matter of time before the SE ridge rears its ugly head again.

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Augusta is reporting 81F, Athens is reporting the same.
 
tennessee storm said:
Really? Cold 300 hours will hardly verify , comes to torch watch it verify because we don’t want it … lol
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Oh you love it warm your not fooling nobody. Sooner or later we will have a cold spell.It doesn’t take but good week or 2 of cold and snow to make us that want it happy anyway. All this warm often brings our biggest snows here in Tennessee. Still optimistic about our chances down the road. In the meantime I will enjoy the nice weather.
 
snowvol said:
Oh you love it warm your not fooling nobody. Sooner or later we will have a cold spell.It doesn’t take but good week or 2 of cold and snow to make us that want it happy anyway. All this warm often brings our biggest snows here in Tennessee. Still optimistic about our chances down the road. In the meantime I will enjoy the nice weather.
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Enjoy the weekend because the cold will be back on Monday!
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Myfrotho704_ said:
No we don’t, not the low humidity warm type of days, mostly in late September/early October and that’s it
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It’s almost like the fall we never have no smooth transition it’s always hot and humid and then one big cold front gets us chilly .. so now we just get the smooth transition type of weather just in December ??‍♂️ I can play pickle ball so I’m happy but I want at least a transient cold shot for Christmas we can’t be this warm for Christmas that’s just not right!
 
Let's move to Hawaii...lol

The National Weather Service has issued a blizzard warning until Sunday morning on the Big Island of Hawaii.

The warning remains in effect from 6 p.m. Friday until 6 a.m. Sunday as up to 12 inches or more of snow is expected on the island. NWS also warns residents to stay indoors as forecasters predict winds gusting over 100 mph.

"Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility at times, with periods of zero visibility," NWS's weather warning reads.

Aside from the blizzard warning, a Kona low is expected near the islands starting on Saturday night. Kona storms are a type of seasonal cyclone in the Hawaiian Islands, usually formed in the winter from winds coming from the westerly "Kona" direction, according to N. Kona lows often bring about wet and "unsettled" weather.
 
The 12z Euro from today actually looks good for later in the future this month - still currently thinking a colder pattern settling in within 2 - 2 and a half weeks. If you take a look upstream over the EPO (and part of the PNA) region, there's a deep trough that I beleive will transpire east of the Rockies between the 17th and 22nd (give or take) The waves from Russia would force the North Pacific blocking into the PNA region while some sections of the sinking air may become separated and go poleward. The blocking across the Central US I think would be a transitional warmth as the flow continues to propagate and that area of air I think would get forced over Greenland causing a possible strong -NAO signature.
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I still believe with the niña becoming more east based, the models and ensembles will be confused for a while imo. Not wishcasting, but if the mjo can propagate correctly into colder phases, we also should see models trend colder imo.
 
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