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Pattern December to Remember

CMC is ice storm warning for Wilkes/Surry but moisture looks to heavy…prob warm at 28-30 no accum.
 
SD said:
Yeah the memories fade quickly on the bad winters but you never forget the good ones. Kind of like 01-02 around here. Pretty terrible winter as a whole but I got a foot in early Jan so it was a winner to me
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This was 2016 for me. Huge 12 inch snow in mid January made it all worth it. We torched quickly after it fell and most of it was gone in 4 days. will never forget it though because it was dropping 2 inch per hour rates and was easily the biggest snow I’ve ever had here.
 
I really want to hug the 12z CMC op run. But the evidence for a balmy holiday season is sadly overwhelming. Hopefully the pattern changes just in time for Christmas eve. Not really holding my breath on it though. ?
 
There's really no good reason to think that such a solution is remotely possible in the current regime.
 
Will Rossman said:
I really want to hug the 12z CMC op run. But the evidence for a balmy holiday season is sadly overwhelming. Hopefully the pattern changes just in time for Christmas eve. Not really holding my breath on it though. ?
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70 on Christmas Eve. Snow storm on Christmas. Then 70 the day after
 
CyclonicFury said:
I wouldn't be surprised if this was the second warmest December on record for some areas behind only 2015. I could see average highs 60+ for the month in most southern cities.
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Couldn’t agree more. It will give 2015 a run for its money
 
GaWx said:
Hoping for a repeat of 1984-5, when ENSO was very similar:

Nov of 1984 was mild in most of the central US and Maine but quite cold in the SE/lower MA states, very similar to Nov of 2021:View attachment 96631

Dec of 1984 was way AN in the E US due largely to MC dominant MJO and we’re very likely headed to a similarly very mild Dec of 2021:

View attachment 96632

Here’s the historic Jan of 1985, which turned sharply colder as the MJO rotated to the cold/left side:

View attachment 96633

Here’s to hoping for a January of 1985 this January (again the ENSO is similar and the MJO will hopefully be similar)!
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Too bad with AGW and high Pac SSTS the MJO gets stuck in the MC and we torch till March.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
One thing that is very possible in these SER dominate setups is the likelihood of a lot of CAD days. Wouldn't surprise me to see those east of the mountains get those 40 and 50 degree dreary days that is showing up on the CMC. Highly doubt it will even get close to an ice storm type of cold but definitely could be a prolonged period of CAD and help partially eliminate so of those hot anomalies. Good luck to you west of the mountains.
 
I can’t believe nobody can see the resemblance of this current situation, to the winter of 11/12!
 
acttemp_1280x720.jpg
 
Just a friendly reminder we have a thread for complaining about the weather, torches, golf, soap opera updates, whatever floats your boat

Misc - 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Well folks, it’s already meteorological fall, the autumnal equinox is nearing, and the first GFS fantasy mountain snow has fallen. Time to transition!
southernwx.com
 
Euro not nearly as excited as the GFS about how intense the SER will be .. similar to the CMC .. GFS is a little too out of hand with things I believe I wonder when it changes it loves to be stubbornly bad
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Euro not nearly as excited as the GFS about how intense the SER will be .. similar to the CMC .. GFS is a little too out of hand with things I believe I wonder when it changes it loves to be stubbornly bad
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Yep. Also CAD always over performs. This will not be a top 3 warmest December on record. Logan, I’ll wager 5 cases of good craft beer on this with you. ?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Euro not nearly as excited as the GFS about how intense the SER will be .. similar to the CMC .. GFS is a little too out of hand with things I believe I wonder when it changes it loves to be stubbornly bad
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Does anyone have accuracy scores for the weather models through 180 hours? I wonder if the GFS is better under 168 hours, maybe?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Unless you were around during the 1960s (even @metwannabe isn't that old) it really didn't snow that much more back in the day, well at least in the last 40-50 years or so.
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Late 70's into the early 80's was full of big storms here....I remember 79 being the first year I can really remember playing in deep snow I was 7, then 1980-1990 was bigtime with 4-5 big events an lots of smaller ones and a few monster ice storms....
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Euro not nearly as excited as the GFS about how intense the SER will be .. similar to the CMC .. GFS is a little too out of hand with things I believe I wonder when it changes it loves to be stubbornly bad
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It's still pretty dominant from D8 or so onward on the eps but the mean does have that flattening around D10ish. The end of the run was kind of encouraging and there were 3 members with sizable snows in the region toward the end but meh so far away
 
weatherfide said:
Does anyone have accuracy scores for the weather models through 180 hours? I wonder if the GFS is better under 168 hours, maybe?
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I’m fairly certain that all models are more accurate the closer in time they are. One thing that I’ve noticed over the years is that the GFS seems to want to gear towards the extremes more than 5-7 days out, especially during the winter. If we’re in a cold pattern it wants to put us all in the deep freezer and if we’re in a warm pattern it wants us to go back into June.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This is something we can all get down with ?
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It used to be that plain rain was evil once into met winter. Not anymore! Most want it now. Of course, about the only kind of rain I ever get down here is plain but I digress.

Well, Ryan’s map above tells me the Bleaklies will likely be dominated by bleak. However, I’ll still be looking for a silver lining late Dec and the first half of January as his maps don’t break it down that much.
 
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