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Pattern December to Remember

SD said:
I just noticed the euro actually has 3 rain events with the 3rd firing up at D10. Wouldn't erase the dry anomalies but would certainly help recharge the water table and stream flows. This would likely be the highest 10 day rain totals for a good part of the state since probably early augustView attachment 96608
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The good news is in the longer-term when you see big Pacific MJO events like this, the southern branch of the jet will temporarily get a nice momentum boost from all the convection in the west-central Pacific, yielding a wetter pattern overall once we get to phase 7-8. The one wrinkle may be how strong the SE US ridge is by that point, because it could mean the difference between heavier rains closer to coastal sections of the SE or more into the TN and lower MS valley.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The good news is in the longer-term when you see big Pacific MJO events like this, the southern branch of the jet will temporarily get a nice momentum boost from all the convection in the west-central Pacific, yielding a wetter pattern overall once we get to phase 7-8. The one wrinkle may be how strong the SE US ridge is by that point, because it could mean the difference between heavier rains closer to coastal sections of the SE or more into the TN and lower MS valley.
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Yeah I worry that we will see the main precip axis end up from Ms/La/TX into the Ohio valley and mid Atlantic. I just hope atleast through D10 that we can keep heights down enough and enough weak wedging around we can capitalize because after d10 the better precip certainly seems to be focused in the more typical nina areas
 
Lol the GFS tries to produce a tropical cyclone in the Gulf. Honestly that's more likely than any of us seeing snow between now and the 3rd week of Dec.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_63.png
 
SD said:
I really want to start a drought thread but to be honest I'm not sure exactly what we would post in it other than no rain
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Well it could be merged with the fire thread then any and all post that are dry weather related (idk fires, water levels, etc) could go in there I guess.
 
I have a feeling this place finna get real boring as soon as the warm weenies get their it’s going to be warm fix in with their posts the next couple days … unless we get some decent severe weather .. we’re going to be adding no pages to the threads until maybe mid December or so .. a shame ?
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Ugly. Nice rebound for most areas since then.
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The one interesting thing about the intricate details of these maps is there lots (and I mean lots) of missing data most everywhere that skews the numbers a little lower than reality. Also fwiw, the average seasonal snow gradient between GSO & RDU is the largest it's ever been in the 2010s out of any decade since the beginning of the 20th century. Can likely say there have been more heartbreaks than ever before for folks in the Triangle area during the last 10 years or so.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s funny how we remember things. I don’t remember the 90’s being all that bad. This map says I was deprived as a kid. Maybe I was just easier to please back then.
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I remember and the 90s sucked lol
 
The updated bias corrected (bc) ECMWF MJO forecast is probably the most realistic one going forward. We're still stuck in the middle of phase 6 through mid-month w/ only ever-increasing amplitude. Maybe if we're lucky the pattern tries to flip during the last week of Dec, but I'm personally leaning towards early January for this to occur.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif
 
Have to give credit to the GFS. it has been the most consistent with showing the strong South East Ridge. IMO It’s been kicking the euros booty this year. Of course it will probably be the worst model if it ever shows snow. But maybe this is the go to model for detecting warm and ridging.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s funny how we remember things. I don’t remember the 90’s being all that bad. This map says I was deprived as a kid. Maybe I was just easier to please back then.
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Same I didn't know how bad that decade was until I saw the numbers last year. I guess when you are in elementary and middle school and school is closed it didn't matter if it was 1 inch or 10. I remember the Sleet bomb from the 90s and at the time I thought we were killing it with the 1 inch we got from the superstorm
 
SD said:
Same I didn't know how bad that decade was until I saw the numbers last year. I guess when you are in elementary and middle school and school is closed it didn't matter if it was 1 inch or 10
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If it wasn't for 93 the 90s would have been the worst. Amazing how 1 storm can make you forget how bad a decade was.
 
NoSnowATL said:
If it wasn't for 93 the 90s would have been the worst. Amazing how 1 storm can make you forget how bad a decade was.
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Yeah the memories fade quickly on the bad winters but you never forget the good ones. Kind of like 01-02 around here. Pretty terrible winter as a whole but I got a foot in early Jan so it was a winner to me
 
Webberweather53 said:
GSO's 1990s snowfall average was basically what Fayetteville's is. RDU was more akin to Lumberton-Elizabethtown in the 90s. If it wasn't for 1995-96, that RDU would have had Wilmington level numbers lol
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I never realized just how bad the 90s were for winter weather. Maybe I didn't care as much back then. Imangine Raleigh having snowfall averages on decade basis being compared to Wilmington snowfall averages once you take out the 1995/96 winter? I could imangine Columbia SC snowfall averages in the 90s was probably simlilar to that to Savannah snowfall averages back in the 90s. It's like climate was shifted much futher northwest in 90s from where it was before or to a lesser extent after that. Hopefully we see don't anything like that again anytime in the near future.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
GSO's 1990s snowfall average was basically what Fayetteville's is. RDU was more akin to Lumberton-Elizabethtown in the 90s. If it wasn't for 1995-96, that RDU would have had Wilmington level numbers lol
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This stat alone makes me laugh when people say it used to snow more back in the day. Like are you sure? When was back in the day?
 
NoSnowATL said:
If it wasn't for 93 the 90s would have been the worst. Amazing how 1 storm can make you forget how bad a decade was.
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For ATL, especially south metro/airport, there was also a major snow in January of 1992. KATL got 5”, their heaviest of the decade. I have a friend in Henry County who got 8”! But on the northside, the snow was much lighter and it melted very quickly due to marginal temps. So, for northern metro, it was easily forgettable. Also, that winter was mild.
 
GaWx said:
For ATL, especially south metro/airport, there was also a major snow in January of 1992. KATL got 5”, their heaviest of the decade. I have a friend in Henry County who got 8”! But on the northside, the snow was much lighter and it melted very quickly due to marginal temps. So, for northern metro, it was easily forgettable. Also, that winter was mild.
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Yea I feel like we avg 1 good storm every 5-10 years. I can remember like 5-6 good one in my short 36 years.
 
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