Brent
Member
another record for Irma lol. She sure liked those.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Snownut
Member
It's already further East than these tracks is it not? Sure looks like it to meFWIW; 00Z GEFS tracks there are more tracks further north of NHC track.
Looks like the GFS is about the same this run from what I can tell.
maybe a little east in the short term
In my Tropical Storm Warning in Atlanta, it has tornadoes unfavorable...how come...i thought the tornadoes was the greatest threat.
Glenn Burns said he don't know now the wedge is going to affect our weather with Irma...interesting
Glenn Burns said he don't know now the wedge is going to affect our weather with Irma...interesting
Snownut
Member
Do you think it will be further East as it approaches NE GA?
Storm5
Member
Yeah people are splitting hairs now. No big changes for inland areas . On a side note the wind field has greatly expanded as it's going ET
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FWIW; 00Z GEFS tracks there are more tracks further north of NHC track.
I'd think that is old, unless Irma is south of Florida again.
GEFS isn't out yet that I know.
Definitely weaker across AL at 850mb.
very much so!
Snow_chaser
Member
Going to be very interesting to see how this plays out over NW Georgia tomorrow. I just watched all 3 Atlanta channels and 2 are taking a similar approach and the 3rd basically said with Irma staying over ground it will weaken to the point that he doesn't expect much. He said it will go to far SW of Atlanta and we are basically looking at rain and very little wind
Is that good?
Snow_chaser
Member
The channel?
Storm5
Member
Storm5
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Snow_chaser
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Was going to meet at a friends cabin in Franklin tomorrow for some river running. that's off as their cabin is now an evac location for friends in Fl. Concerned now as the 12Z Euro had 80-90 mph gusts forecast for late tomorrow night in the area around Franklin county NC. There's a couple families with kids in the cabin and they are up around 2000 feet.
Go figured!! Hehehe
Storm5
Member
Then there's the 3k NAM
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WeatherWatch
Member
He should know, with a wedge, that causes northeasterly/easterly winds and it keeps the temps on the cool side. The wedge isn't going to affect Irma than any other low pressure system. Also, typically, northeasterly/easterly winds brings windy conditions. So, between the wind from Irma, the wedge and the tight pressure gradient . It's going to be quite windy, even area's further away from Irma that will be on the eastern quadrant of low.
Ya matches well with euro. And the hrrr looks like it’s gonna matches well with that. Obviously doesn’t go out that far thoThen there's the 3k NAM
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Then there's the 3k NAM
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Yeah the 3km NAM would be pretty wicked across the area. Too bad it's worth about as much as the CMC on weed.
Storm5
Member
WeatherWatch
Member
For north Georgia, including Atlanta, there could be some tornadoes. I'm not expecting a widespread outbreak for severe weather for northern Georgia. The conditions just won't be set up right for a widespread severe weather outbreak for north GA.
Oh geez. They are horrible at everything they do. I never trust them. 11 Alive is on par with FFC. As is channel 2 and fox 5.
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Storm5
Member
The 00z RGEM isn't half bad
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Wow. Just noticed tropical storm warnings cover almost every inch of GA all the way to the TN state line now.
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WeatherWatch
Member
That's rare!
The HRRR looks like the 3km NAM and the EURO with regards to wind field.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Dayum, 60-90 kts!!! I know it's T 850s, but hell, that's gonna be rough depending on how much can get down to ground level! And many models have been showing this set up , for many days! Starting to get a little concerned about downed trees!Depends on what part of the state you are in
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SimeonNC
Member
GSP issued a wind advisory for my area.
Question what's the best way to sorta figure our the forcing for 850s knots to reach down to surface I believe it has to do with Lapse rates or something but you have any thoughts on mechanism that could assist that forcing down
Like Webber alluded to, we are gonna have to watch those bands for a substantial tornado or two. Back in 1994 when TS Beryl rolled through, it dropped an F3 tornado in Lexington county and did a lot of damage. In fact, there were many tornadoes that day.
honestly thats a tough thing to figure out. If there is more convective precipitation vs stratiform rain/storms it will help.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Definitely hearing rain now. Just the beginning of what will be a long duration rain event with the potential for some wind damage...fun...not really.
umm....here is some HRRR soundings. Latest run, and just get going.
Just watched a fb live from CBS 46 and they are really misleading folks. Saying the tropical storm warning isn't needed and those saying wind gusts 55 to 65 just won't happen and a complete 15-20 minutes of ranting and raving about how folks don't need to really be preparing. I've never seen such BS in my life from a news outlet.
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