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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

With it being a Tropical Storm all the way up into AL now, will the winds and gusts have to be updated higher than previously predicted. It looks like it will still be a storm when it gets to my area.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
That's good and well but it cannot make the next point without a turn within an hour. Just not possible, no matter what NHC believes.
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So, you are hell bent on this thing not turning NW whatsoever...we all get that by now (you've posted 28 times about it), but can you add substance to your stance of why you know this wont turn NW?
 
DadOfJax said:
So, you are hell bent on this thing not turning NW whatsoever...we all get that by now (you've posted 28 times about it), but can you add substance to your stance of why you know this wont turn NW?
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I've never said it wouldn't turn NW. I was saying based on the 5pm NHC map, it will have to turn NW within the hour to make next point. The SW appears weaker so that's one reason I think the turn occurs further north. Also climo suggests that too.
 
Ground control to Phil. You should start getting into the part of the storm with the most instability in the NE quad in the next hour or so. The couplets and curved cells are relentlessly coming on shore. Get radar scope on your phone if you don't have it!
 
DadOfJax said:
So, you are hell bent on this thing not turning NW whatsoever...we all get that by now (you've posted 28 times about it), but can you add substance to your stance of why you know this wont turn NW?
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He said climo which is true . But Irmas path from where she was just North north of PR to where it turned is alreAdy against climo as GaWx pointed out numerous times that a more wnw path is more climo like vs a sharp turn North . Storms don't always follow climo

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
FWIW - wish tomorrow was another Monday wondering and worrying about if the phone will ring, and when it does, what sort of client problem needs to be dealt with ...
In other words ... the cluster is no fun ...
 
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Jackstraw said:
Ground control to Phil. You should start getting into the part of the storm with the most instability in the NE quad in the next hour or so. The couplets and curved cells are relentlessly coming on shore. Get radar scope on your phone if you don't have it!
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An interesting observation about those couplets/curved cells - they are curved the opposite direction than the ones in the 4/27/2011 outbreak.
 
skywatcher said:
An interesting observation about those couplets/curved cells - they are curved the opposite direction than the ones in the 4/27/2011 outbreak.
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Yeah, and these are some high topped super cells out there coming in. I've seen some up over 55k ft. Very strong updrafts which is very unusual in a TC. A lot of these aren't typical frictional induced TC spawned tornado sigs. I tracked one really strong isolated cell with a consistent couplet over 75 miles. Thats border line long tracker. If that instability maintains could be a really scary issue as the storm moves north and the landmass expands into that area.
 
power - on for a few, off for many, on again now -- quick look - and I may be 1000% wrong -- she looks a bit weaker coming north than progged ... ????
 
so when is this west motion starting?

Funny we couldn't stop the west trend and now it refuses to move west :p
 
Brent said:
so when is this west motion starting?

Funny we couldn't stop the west trend and now it refuses to move west :p
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Don't mention the west trend around here. The euro and NHC said it's gonna happen and by gosh that's the gospel. It was supposed to have already happened. 0Z short range models NAM and RGEM will be interesting
 
Well latest HRRR shows about another hour or so of N movement then NW and picks up some speed
but then again nothing but really on target either from Cuba on...
 
So any thoughts on it getting it's act together any once if it gets back into the bend in the Gulf some atleast gaining some steam back
 
I really am thinking it's going to stay over Florida. The HRRR back many runs ago had it riding the coast .. and then subsequent runs kept keeping it away from the water and more eastward run after run. The NAM is the furthest East.. but the GFS does it too.

Either way, if it stays over land, and never gets to the true "big bend" area... that means differences further upstream for places like AL, GA, SC and likely into NC. We'll see.
 
Looks like it's moving NNE, probably just a wobble
 
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