Tropical Hurricane Ida

[Henry2326]

I honestly think “underperformer”was used moreso as like, it’s not going to be the “demise of NOLA” that we thought it was going to be. Granted, even at 115mph, it will still be a formidable force that warrants the current evacuations that are taking place

I guess you have to describe demise. The first map shows Morgan City in relation to New Orleans. The second shows the surge estimates for a cat3 storm. The entire area will be covered in water with the storm pushing surge into NO. Listening this morning to the manager of the "pumps", I didn't walk away with the feeling this was going to work. There are 96 pumps and they only pump 1/2 inch per hour. As with Harvey, we will have to wait and see whether demise is characteristic of wind or water,

We watched this identical process with Michael where the models lit up then backed off, then lit up again. I'm hoping for the best case scenario for any place on the gulf, bur don't think we are far enough along to call it an "underperformer". It gives people a sense of relief that has no place at this time. Preparation is key in saving lives with the information we have.

 

[deltadog03]

some lightning showing up in eyewall now...

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Based of of satellite I would say convection appears to be refiring on the NE side. I bet we see expansive convection and lightning rotating upshear shortly

 

[Henry2326]

12z HWRF and HMON at 952 and 949. Both were noted in 10:00 NHC discussion.
Both were very effective in forecasting Michael and Laura concerning RI.

 

[Nerman]

I guess you have to describe demise. The first map shows Morgan City in relation to New Orleans. The second shows the surge estimates for a cat3 storm. The entire area will be covered in water with the storm pushing surge into NO. Listening this morning to the manager of the "pumps", I didn't walk away with the feeling this was going to work. There are 96 pumps and they only pump 1/2 inch per hour. As with Harvey, we will have to wait and see whether demise is characteristic of wind or water,

We watched this identical process with Michael where the models lit up then backed off, then lit up again. I'm hoping for the best case scenario for any place on the gulf, bur don't think we are far enough along to call it an "underperformer". It gives people a sense of relief that has no place at this time. Preparation is key in saving lives with the information we have.


View attachment 89493

View attachment 89494

Wow! That goes all the way up to Baton Rouge. I hope they are evacuating now.

 

[BHS1975]

12z HWRF and HMON at 952 and 949. Both were noted in 10:00 NHC discussion.
Both were very effective in forecasting Michael and Laura concerning RI.

View attachment 89496

View attachment 89497

How close where they with Micheal?


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[Nerman]

12z HWRF and HMON at 952 and 949. Both were noted in 10:00 NHC discussion.
Both were very effective in forecasting Michael and Laura concerning RI.

View attachment 89496

View attachment 89497

Those two have really zeroed in on a location.

 

[BHS1975]

The eye is on the large side which could really take advantage of the loop current.


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[Henry2326]

How close where they with Micheal?


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If I remember correctly, dead on, but most said it was crazy. All the rest were not showing the RI.

 

[Tornadocane]

WOW... Ida actually looks like a storm on the verge of becoming a major hurricane. She looks like a 965-975 Mb storm with 90-100 MPH winds. That's what it looks like right now. If the environment improves tonight or tomorrow morning, I could see her bombing out to a Category 4 in as little as 12 hours. Does anyone else think Ida looks annular?

 

[BHS1975]

WOW... Ida actually looks like a storm on the verge of becoming a major hurricane. She looks like a 965-975 Mb storm with 90-100 MPH winds. That's what it looks like right now. If the environment improves tonight or tomorrow morning, I could see her bombing out to a Category 4 in as little as 12 hours. Does anyone else think Ida looks annular?

I do.


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[ForsythSnow]

WOW... Ida actually looks like a storm on the verge of becoming a major hurricane. She looks like a 965-975 Mb storm with 90-100 MPH winds. That's what it looks like right now. If the environment improves tonight or tomorrow morning, I could see her bombing out to a Category 4 in as little as 12 hours. Does anyone else think Ida looks annular?

Structure might be improving but with the gap in the N eye she still has some work to do. You might be right about her being in the 970s now and the winds being 90 or so, but in no way is this going to get annular. Way too much junk convection around.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

WOW... Ida actually looks like a storm on the verge of becoming a major hurricane. She looks like a 965-975 Mb storm with 90-100 MPH winds. That's what it looks like right now. If the environment improves tonight or tomorrow morning, I could see her bombing out to a Category 4 in as little as 12 hours. Does anyone else think Ida looks annular?

90-100 would be cat 2 territory which isn’t quite major hurricane status that starts at 115 but she’s certainly on her way there .. I really just want to know what that bubble of hot water is going to do to this thing

 

[mydoortotheworld]

WOW... Ida actually looks like a storm on the verge of becoming a major hurricane. She looks like a 965-975 Mb storm with 90-100 MPH winds. That's what it looks like right now. If the environment improves tonight or tomorrow morning, I could see her bombing out to a Category 4 in as little as 12 hours. Does anyone else think Ida looks annular?

I mean I wouldn't say she looks annular...

 

[accu35]

Maybe I'm wrong ?. Looks like NNW motion

 

[deltadog03]

I know there is plenty of time for sure, but I don't know if Ida will get higher than a 3. Something with the internal workings just seem off a bit.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Convective blowup starting on the northern side ? ?

 

[Storm5]

Models have been dead on with the track for the last two days outside the pointless NAM .


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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Models have been dead on with the track for the last two days outside the pointless NAM .


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The NAM keeps correcting north and east. It’ll get there eventually.

 

[cyclogent]

976mb/100mph on the the latest advisory

 

[Tornadocane]

Structure might be improving but with the gap in the N eye she still has some work to do. You might be right about her being in the 970s now and the winds being 90 or so, but in no way is this going to get annular. Way too much junk convection around.

Okay. I'm not exactly sure about the qualifications necessary to be designated an annular storms. I can't imagine that this storm is not in the 970s, and I'm underestimating it's pressure in comparison to other storms that have had similar eye features. I agree with you about the junk convection, particularly that convergence zone near Florida. Seems like it's suppressing storms on the Northern and Eastern side of the system. SW shear also looks like an issue, although it's a pretty subtle looking inhibitor on IR. Overall, it just looks like Ida is squeezed between synoptic scale features.

 

[Brick Tamland]

976mb/100mph on the the latest advisory

If it's already up to 100 mph, oh boy.

 

[Brent]

It's go time

 

[Weatherlover92]

Ida upgraded to Category 2 (100mph).

 

[HSVweather]

Convective blowup starting on the northern side ? ?View attachment 89503

Yes, it appears to be

 

[Storm5]

976mb/100mph on the the latest advisory

Seems generous but ok . Will be an entertaining 12-18 hours ahead


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[Myfrotho704_]

Imo I see this thing still having potential to become a 4, it looks great right now and is improving its inner structure, still has plenty of time

 

[Brick Tamland]

Imo I see this thing still having potential to become a 4, it looks great right now and is improving its inner structure, still has plenty of time

Yeah, still has about 30 hours to go.

 

[accu35]

East side of the cone.

 

[Tornadocane]

I know there is plenty of time for sure, but I don't know if Ida will get higher than a 3. Something with the internal workings just seem off a bit.

It's a bunch of little things keeping her in check. The position of ULAC, ULL to its West, Ridge to its east, and that ULL diving SW in the Atlantic. The system is only has adequate poleward ventilation.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Definitely looks to be a more north of west movement on satellite.

 

[iGRXY]

View attachment 89505East side of the cone.

That looks like a head one path with NO.

 

[Tornadocane]

Seems generous but ok . Will be an entertaining 12-18 hours ahead


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During recon this morning, winds of 95-105 MPH were pretty close to the surface (750-1,750 feet). It's not out of the realm of possibility, but 90 seems like a solid number at this point.

 

[Storm5]

When is the next recon flight ?


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[Tornadocane]

When is the next recon flight ?


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4:00 and then 4:45

 

[HSVweather]

 

[accu35]

When is the next recon flight ?


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I bet they will find Ida east of the cone.

 

[Storm5]

That's actually a good point . If it continues to ride the eastern side of the envelope it would cut time over water a little


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[Jessy89]

While east may cut down on strength slightly. NoLA still on the east side and perhaps even directly under the eastern eye wall that would not be good for NOLA


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[DadOfJax]

Like most said yesterday, this thing is headed straight to LA, MS, AL, TN, KY, and into WV….wasn’t too hard with such tight model consensus and knowing the history of what these storms do and model biases on breaking down ridges too soon. Going to be a rough ride for NOLA!!