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Tropical Ida Inland impacts

Shaggy said:
Gfs caves to the euro and no longer exits out through New England
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That's a major PRE setup on the gfs for the OV and mid Atlantic. The icon went full euro with the system maintaining its identity and being absorbed
 
Camille had a max rain total of 27” in Virginia and killed over 100 there. Inland impacts are often downplayed compared to a few people seeing hurricane wind at the coast.
 
If I remember correctly Camille made an unexpected turn out of Kentucky and slammed Virginia when everyone was asleep. Euro is showing a wide arc to the right with 4-8” over the Appalachians. Global models will struggle until closer to verification but I think 6-12” is reasonable over some of the hard hit areas of TN/NC up into New England.
 
SD said:
If the circulation stays intact similar to the icon and 0z euro there will be quite a large tornado threat with this as well
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Perfect position for a closed low for Alabama severe events.

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Again I haven't really looked at this. But I'd like to see the nadocast used in the last tropical system used for this. Elsa and that one it hit the bullseye on tornado activity.

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SD said:
Icon misses the trough and starts building the ridge over top it would just spin its wheels until it died or maybe eventually got drawn out by the stuff coming until the NEView attachment 89206
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Euro will be interesting because it managed to get it back out over water. Seeing the rest of the models caving to the east exit versus out through NE gives me the sense that right now the euro is leading the pack. It may be a trend setter if it holds that solution.
 
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Sheesh. The ceiling is high on the tornado potential the closed low is in sync with the Jetstream. A slightly diffluent stream aloft. Gfs even tries to show streaked convection if I looked at it right. Hmm. Crazy event coming up. The turning with heights is almost at a 90° down where it's actually plotted near mobile. Which screams supercell.
 

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UK is a disaster for TN. WPC needs to warn those people more this time. Get out ahead of this before people only care about the wind speed at the beach.
 
My oldest son is driving from Atlanta to Tulsa, OK, leaving next Thursday afternoon - his plan now is go through Tennessee. Gosh, I hope this thing moves out quickly, the thought of him driving through the mountains in a stalled out tropical system…??
 
Zander98al said:
Gotta say lol. This one may outperform y'all's record breaking tornado warning amount from the last tropical system. It's almost as if spring came early with this tropical system

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Those mini sickle hodographs are a little chilling

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SD said:
Icon misses the trough and starts building the ridge over top it would just spin its wheels until it died or maybe eventually got drawn out by the stuff coming until the NEView attachment 89206
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Notice the EPac storm going up the Gulf of California! That could be pulled up and bring me rain!
 
I could definitely see a moderate convective outlook for somewhere once this thing is a good bit inland. I'll say this. The hodos in the warm sector are some of the prettiest in terms of forming a circle I've seen in a while. I imagine more cape will be there than the global models shows, even if there isn't much. Large hodographs will still present a good tornado problem in. Less cape environments. What's troubling is some of the hot towers showing on infared. Good potential for supercellular structures and broken segments for tornado development.Screenshot_20210826-171736-054.pngScreenshot_20210826-171758-115.pngScreenshot_20210826-171826-822.png
 
Nws bham discussion. There forecast discussion implies heightened tornado potential for central Alabama due to track. Screenshot_20210827-073741-025.png
 
Looking at the icon and gfs it's hard to see a lot going on here. Feel like the euro will eventually cave
 
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