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Tropical Ida Inland impacts

Shaggy said:
Gfs caves to the euro and no longer exits out through New England
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That's a major PRE setup on the gfs for the OV and mid Atlantic. The icon went full euro with the system maintaining its identity and being absorbed
 
Camille had a max rain total of 27” in Virginia and killed over 100 there. Inland impacts are often downplayed compared to a few people seeing hurricane wind at the coast.
 
If I remember correctly Camille made an unexpected turn out of Kentucky and slammed Virginia when everyone was asleep. Euro is showing a wide arc to the right with 4-8” over the Appalachians. Global models will struggle until closer to verification but I think 6-12” is reasonable over some of the hard hit areas of TN/NC up into New England.
 
SD said:
If the circulation stays intact similar to the icon and 0z euro there will be quite a large tornado threat with this as well
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Perfect position for a closed low for Alabama severe events.

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Again I haven't really looked at this. But I'd like to see the nadocast used in the last tropical system used for this. Elsa and that one it hit the bullseye on tornado activity.

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SD said:
Icon misses the trough and starts building the ridge over top it would just spin its wheels until it died or maybe eventually got drawn out by the stuff coming until the NEView attachment 89206
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Euro will be interesting because it managed to get it back out over water. Seeing the rest of the models caving to the east exit versus out through NE gives me the sense that right now the euro is leading the pack. It may be a trend setter if it holds that solution.
 
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Sheesh. The ceiling is high on the tornado potential the closed low is in sync with the Jetstream. A slightly diffluent stream aloft. Gfs even tries to show streaked convection if I looked at it right. Hmm. Crazy event coming up. The turning with heights is almost at a 90° down where it's actually plotted near mobile. Which screams supercell.
 

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