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Tropical Hurricane Ida

Showing this because the wind pattern hasn’t changed much since our last few storms this season. IMO I think IDA will end up east of New Orleans. Don’t know how far yet but maybe Mississippi or Alabama. It’s a stale wind pattern and these storms are traveling in the same general area then largely swinging hard right or up the east coast. 9D6E476E-2F02-47D1-B76F-CEAD62DA94BB.jpeg
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Showing this because the wind pattern hasn’t changed much since our last few storms this season. IMO I think IDA will end up east of New Orleans. Don’t know how far yet but maybe Mississippi or Alabama. It’s a stale wind pattern and these storms are traveling in the same general area then largely swinging hard right or up the east coast. View attachment 89214
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There are some differences -
 
SD said:
Looking at the visible satellite it looks like there may be a well defined LLC based on low cloud movement but the convection is likely biased N and E
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Would be problematic for there to be major relocations further north into the deep convection. Could save NOLA but threaten areas without much warrnng of a track shift........just spit balling ideas really. I'm not saying thats gonna happen but something to contemplate
 
Some differences yes but Crazy we went from deep Texas to how Far East now I think it will keep correcting east given how much has evolved in 1-2 days I don’t think it’s done
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Some differences yes but Crazy we went from deep Texas to how Far East now I think it will keep correcting east given how much has evolved in 1-2 days I don’t think it’s done
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I see what you’re saying with the changes that we’ve seen the last couple days. The thing is the ridge just looks too stout with this timing to give a landfall east of NOLA. I do agree with you that the inland effects could continue to trend east… models are really wanting to weaken the ridge after Sunday and move it east in response to the block up north getting stronger and the trough coming into the NE beginning to pull the storm further east… that overall set up would favor a sharp turn to the northeast and east once inland
 
Chazwin said:
I see what you’re saying with the changes that we’ve seen the last couple days. The thing is the ridge just looks too stout with this timing to give a landfall east of NOLA. I do agree with you that the inland effects could continue to trend east… models are really wanting to weaken the ridge after Sunday and move it east in response to the block up north getting stronger and the trough coming into the NE beginning to pull the storm further east… that overall set up would favor a sharp turn to the northeast and east once inland
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If we can get that ridge to break down fast enough, I could see a Sally (2020) type setup. Maybe not a sharp of a turn, but without a stout ridge, we all know how fast storms love to recurve to the NE.
 
ryan1234 said:
If we can get that ridge to break down fast enough, I could see a Sally (2020) type setup. Maybe not a sharp of a turn, but without a stout ridge, we all know how fast storms love to recurve to the NE.
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True and even where the track looks to be right now, I could see there end up being a lot more rainfall coverage further east than what’s modeled right now. A very moist flow with deep tropical moisture out ahead of the storm circulation and on the western edge of the subtropical ridge
 
There’s no way this goes N or NW and doesn’t hit the tip of Cuba. Maybe that can be a little hiccup to keep this from becoming a monster! A few days ago, it was looking possible to shoot the gap. I think that’s off the table
 
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