• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Ida

Wild Weather Monger said:
Is that you Joe?
Click to expand...


He's right

6aa002f1421059813dd8bbc97a5c8e2d.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Hurricane Camille. everyone should take this serious since we all know the story of what happened to Virginia well inland from landfall.
 
This definitely has category 5 and sub 940 mb written all over it. If these models and the NHC are already showing what they're showing that is bad news. I've said it once and I will say it again, these things are always over performing once they hit the gulf. Especially when they're approaching land, they're almost at their peak and best looking the last few years. And if that ridge is even remotely further east than modeled, you can bet Everywhere from NO to the panhandle of Florida will be the strike zone.
 
iGRXY said:
This definitely has category 5 and sub 940 mb written all over it. If these models and the NHC are already showing what they're showing that is bad news. I've said it once and I will say it again, these things are always over performing once they hit the gulf. Especially when they're approaching land, they're almost at their peak and best looking the last few years. And if that ridge is even remotely further east than modeled, you can bet Everywhere from NO to the panhandle of Florida will be the strike zone.
Click to expand...

And we have seen canes take off in a hurry the last few years.
 
Just Driving home the point about New Orleans and the dangers of living there. Below is a Fema Flood Map of Wilmington Nc. The Zones AE in blue are areas you can expect to Flood in a 100 year event(which happen more frequently than 100 years)
Wilmington NC Flood Map.PNG

Sure there would probably be more flooding but these are the areas of regulated construction.
Below is New Orleans
New Orleans Flood Map.PNG

Sure many of these buildings are "Grandfathered" in but people just don't realize where they are living sometimes along the coast. This is what is expected to flood in a moderate event, This does not even take into account levee failures or more severe anomalous events.
 
Our heat dome hasn't budge and I don't believe it will. This has Cajun Louisiana written all over it.

Maybe a ULL trying to pop up over central Mexico?

NEXLABdpdt-12Z-20210828_GFSUS_sfc_mslpsa-10-200.gif
 
Showing this because the wind pattern hasn’t changed much since our last few storms this season. IMO I think IDA will end up east of New Orleans. Don’t know how far yet but maybe Mississippi or Alabama. It’s a stale wind pattern and these storms are traveling in the same general area then largely swinging hard right or up the east coast. 9D6E476E-2F02-47D1-B76F-CEAD62DA94BB.jpeg
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Showing this because the wind pattern hasn’t changed much since our last few storms this season. IMO I think IDA will end up east of New Orleans. Don’t know how far yet but maybe Mississippi or Alabama. It’s a stale wind pattern and these storms are traveling in the same general area then largely swinging hard right or up the east coast. View attachment 89214
Click to expand...
There are some differences -
 
SD said:
Looking at the visible satellite it looks like there may be a well defined LLC based on low cloud movement but the convection is likely biased N and E
Click to expand...

Would be problematic for there to be major relocations further north into the deep convection. Could save NOLA but threaten areas without much warrnng of a track shift........just spit balling ideas really. I'm not saying thats gonna happen but something to contemplate
 
Some differences yes but Crazy we went from deep Texas to how Far East now I think it will keep correcting east given how much has evolved in 1-2 days I don’t think it’s done
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Some differences yes but Crazy we went from deep Texas to how Far East now I think it will keep correcting east given how much has evolved in 1-2 days I don’t think it’s done
Click to expand...
I see what you’re saying with the changes that we’ve seen the last couple days. The thing is the ridge just looks too stout with this timing to give a landfall east of NOLA. I do agree with you that the inland effects could continue to trend east… models are really wanting to weaken the ridge after Sunday and move it east in response to the block up north getting stronger and the trough coming into the NE beginning to pull the storm further east… that overall set up would favor a sharp turn to the northeast and east once inland
 
Chazwin said:
I see what you’re saying with the changes that we’ve seen the last couple days. The thing is the ridge just looks too stout with this timing to give a landfall east of NOLA. I do agree with you that the inland effects could continue to trend east… models are really wanting to weaken the ridge after Sunday and move it east in response to the block up north getting stronger and the trough coming into the NE beginning to pull the storm further east… that overall set up would favor a sharp turn to the northeast and east once inland
Click to expand...

If we can get that ridge to break down fast enough, I could see a Sally (2020) type setup. Maybe not a sharp of a turn, but without a stout ridge, we all know how fast storms love to recurve to the NE.
 
ryan1234 said:
If we can get that ridge to break down fast enough, I could see a Sally (2020) type setup. Maybe not a sharp of a turn, but without a stout ridge, we all know how fast storms love to recurve to the NE.
Click to expand...
True and even where the track looks to be right now, I could see there end up being a lot more rainfall coverage further east than what’s modeled right now. A very moist flow with deep tropical moisture out ahead of the storm circulation and on the western edge of the subtropical ridge
 
There’s no way this goes N or NW and doesn’t hit the tip of Cuba. Maybe that can be a little hiccup to keep this from becoming a monster! A few days ago, it was looking possible to shoot the gap. I think that’s off the table
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top