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Tropical TS Henri

Brent said:
I don't think it'll be like Sandy but the slow motion will make everything that much worse. This will be moving 20 mph slower than the slowest hurricane up there. The water i do agree will be the biggest problem but the winds up there especially prolonged can cause a lot of damage too because the infrastructure is so old. I believe there was issues from Isaias last year and it was long falling apart when it got up there (made landfall in NC for reference)

Im also still a little concerned about NYC if the west trends don't stop that angle would be a nightmare for surge in the harbor but hopefully it stays east
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Yeah people forget just last year Isaias gave NYC gust to 60-80 mph.......being on the west side its possible this does not exceed those gust they had last year in NYC.....Long Island out to the eastern shore of Conn and RI is the place to be for this one....

Currently Henri looking a little rough, pressure is up 3mb since the plane got out there as well....shear still keeping him slightly tilted....
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah people forget just last year Isaias gave NYC gust to 60-80 mph.......being on the west side its possible this does not exceed those gust they had last year in NYC.....Long Island out to the eastern shore of Conn and RI is the place to be for this one....

Currently Henri looking a little rough, pressure is up 3mb since the plane got out there as well....shear still keeping him slightly tilted....
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Yeah I thought I remembered Isaias being bad... And it was a lot weaker up there
 
JB said awhile ago Henri would not go boom boom until Saturday afternoon/night. Won’t be long
 
Watch the developing convection out ahead of any tropical cyclone and it will often tell you what general area it’s gonna head. Doom starting to take stage.
 
Looking more symmetrical now on satellite and about to hit prime intensification period. Don't be surprised to see a quick little boom over the gulf stream before it starts to weaken prior to lf
 
000
WTNT33 KNHC 211440
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI IS NOW A HURRICANE...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 72.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
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Henri has become the third hurricane of the season. EDIT: correction.
 
I just don’t really seeing this be as big of a deal as some are making it seem in the Twitter world … it’s just not giving me worrisome vibes right now … maybe later tonight if he starts looking better I may get more nervous .. I just feel like it’ll end up being like a strong noreaster to people up there
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I just don’t really seeing this be as big of a deal as some are making it seem in the Twitter world … it’s just not giving me worrisome vibes right now … maybe later tonight if he starts looking better I may get more nervous .. I just feel like it’ll end up being like a strong noreaster to people up there
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Also just peeped at the HWRF it had rain bands beginning to hit early Sunday morning and my Sunday evening the rain was moved out … slow mover? Seems fast enough to me

I think if anything the inland flood threat could be more problematic with the mountains and upslope flow
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I just don’t really seeing this be as big of a deal as some are making it seem in the Twitter world … it’s just not giving me worrisome vibes right now … maybe later tonight if he starts looking better I may get more nervous .. I just feel like it’ll end up being like a strong noreaster to people up there
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Way more rain than a nor'easter.


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BHS1975 said:
Way more rain than a nor'easter.


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Yes I could see an inland flooding threat for sure.. maybe my neurotransmitters for dangerous storms have been dulled down by beasts like sandy, Harvey, Dorian. Inland flooding could be bad but places in the mountains of NC just went through two feet of rain from a FRED and had the worst flooding they’ve ever seen .. maybe what I’m getting at is it just won’t be as memorable when we get these types of storms often
 
A lot will have to do with wind field size too, Henri is on the small side wind field wise for now anyways and honestly he looks a bit meh on sat loops currently. So duration is going to trump intensity on the wind side, but a slowing storm approaching at that angle will like Shaggy said pile the water in, though it probably wont be any worse than some of the monster bombs they get in the winter, the wind field just wont be that big....they are lucking out that this is not some long hauler with a several hundred mile wide wind field. The biggest concern would be the rainfall as the system slows and rains out over the mts and hills of interior NE.

This is the predicted wind field at landfall...notice the total halfacane they got here which would spare a lot of the NYC metro etc....


FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.9N 71.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.
 
Imagine if this stalled convection N of Henri was over land. Would be a much bigger deal. Have to see if comes ashore today or not. DAD94289-D4A3-41FA-9615-904AE2CBD192.jpeg
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Imagine if this stalled convection N of Henri was over land. Would be a much bigger deal. Have to see if comes ashore today or not. View attachment 88872
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I hope Henri doesn’t shut down the Wilkesboro subway system!
They said it’s coming on shore at low tide
 
Henri is very likely not a hurricane right now, or even that strong of a TS he really looks like garbage......he has maybe 12-24 hrs to get it together before water temps cap any possible intensification....and right now that looks like a pretty large task for Henri to pull off...
 
151351_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

Track shifted east.
 
He’s proven even more that this again I just won’t be that big of a deal other than a flash flooding threat for sure .. but honestly everyone deals with that nowadays
 
Recon is not finding a cane right now and honestly the surface wind field is smaller and weaker than I thought it would be at this point, Henri appears to have a rather large overall circulation and thats making it tough to wrap up I think...I doubt they lower him to a TS with them expecting some intensification overnight....pressure is down so thats reason enough to keep him a cane I suppose even though the recon plane is not finding anything much above 60-70 mph even at flight level....
 
Finally found some cane conditions on the SE side of the center......not the west side of the center had nothing gust in to the 40's very lopsided storm and the worse will definitely be along and east of track.....also still moving NNE quickly would not be surprised to see some small shifts east with the track...
 
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