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July Fry 2021

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Don’t buy the backing off of the models and especially what the nam 3km did with that stuff in NGA And movin it east
 
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Another hot day to get through and we cool off a little, with good chances of afternoon showers and storms. Looking forward to that.

And of course, @JHS shall receive not a drop of rainfall for the balance of 2021.
 
Walked outside and it's still hot and muggy and noticed a lone cell at this early hour already. I had no idea it's well out in the ocean off of Norfolk.
 

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Well I’m glad the HRRR is back to going coocoo for coco puffs with storms today and even tomorrow .. I’m not too worried about models downplaying when they have undermodeled storm coverage almost every day now
 
Today and tomorrow still look very dry, especially in SC. Maybe 1 or 2 storms in SC and 3-4 in NC outside of the mountains. A little more coverage in the NC mountains. The models show most of the rain over eastern sections of both states Monday which do not need anymore right now.
 
Looks like SBcape is gonna overperform models today, so probably gonna see the same thing happen with storm coverage
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like SBcape is gonna overperform models today, so probably gonna see the same thing happen with storm coverage
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Yeah...should be pretty good coverage. I'm in Stuart, VA today, so we'll see what happens. But we should see some big rainers today.

* @JHS will remain bone dry with torrid conditions persisting through the season.
 
Same thing as yesterday. Columbia SC again. Nothing over the upstate and not looking for any today or tomorrow.
 
The overall evolution of the next 3 days should be fun to watch. Highly disturbed flow with a decent amount of jet dynamics aloft will aid in storm development with the previous days convection and remnant boundaries being the catalysts for storm development and/or suppression. I'm a little surprised at how mediocre the coverage and rain totals are to be honest with a ripe setup to fire off large areas of storms with good coverage. It's not often I'm more bullish than the models but this is one of those times
 
Lickwx said:
90 with a dew of 76 heat index 102. Wonder what cape is like, must be pretty high.
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Ml cape of freaking 3000 go outside and clap your hands a few times might be enough to get something going. Just not a lot to sustain updrafts right now but that gets better toward dark. Hopefully these little cape eaters don't ruin a better chance of organized stuff later
 
Rah
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM Saturday...

Same front, different day. Frankly, the models show the front that
will be over the region Monday morning making little progress
throughout the entire week. The front will eventually weaken and
serve as less of a forcing mechanism, but at least at the beginning
of the week, there are indicators from model guidance that there
could be isolated areas with extremely heavy rainfall. The 12Z NAM
put out some bulls-eyes of 5 inches of rain in 24 hours, the 00Z GFS
did something similar, and a 00Z run of the European model also
showed the possibility for heavy rainfall as well. It is too early
to pinpoint any specific locations that could receive heavy rainfall
(so no flash flood watch will be issued at this time), but the
threat is definitely there. This is already highlighted in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook. Through the extended forecast, Monday
still appears to be the day with both the greatest coverage of rain
as well as the most intense rain. There will be a diminishing trend
through the week, with rainfall likely across southern counties on
Tuesday, then chance pops on Wednesday before at least one dry day
is possible on Thursday. A slight chance of thunderstorms returns to
the forecast for Friday and Saturday.

With the extensive cloud cover and rainfall on Monday, that should
be the coolest day of the week, with highs only in the low to mid
80s. Temperatures return to values near climatology on Wednesday and
will remain that way into the weekend
 
Eventually this pattern of stalling fronts and heavy rain are going to bite us in the ass......either by focusing a tropical rem low and or getting the rivers full right before a system comes in.....
 
Downeastnc said:
Eventually this pattern of stalling fronts and heavy rain are going to bite us in the ass......either by focusing a tropical rem low and or getting the rivers full right before a system comes in.....
Click to expand...

It's not gonna make it out to sea.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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Downeastnc said:
Eventually this pattern of stalling fronts and heavy rain are going to bite us in the ass......either by focusing a tropical rem low and or getting the rivers full right before a system comes in.....
Click to expand...
Well, at least we'll be able to temporarily relocate to Jonesville, which will be entirely safe from all rain and flooding ever.
 
Downeastnc said:
Eventually this pattern of stalling fronts and heavy rain are going to bite us in the ass......either by focusing a tropical rem low and or getting the rivers full right before a system comes in.....
Click to expand...

I'd keep an eye on as early as next weekend into the next week as the trough lifts. Going to be an old front, low sfc pressures and maybe a mcv or 2 floating around. Good setup to make a mess with a tropical system that gets pushed west by the building bermuda ridge
ecmwf_z500a_us_11 (18).png
 
SD said:
I'd keep an eye on as early as next weekend into the next week as the trough lifts. Going to be an old front, low sfc pressures and maybe a mcv or 2 floating around. Good setup to make a mess with a tropical system that gets pushed west by the building bermuda ridge
View attachment 86691
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If we get this to verify we may just get an MCS train going with both Carolinas right in the path.
 
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