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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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SD said:
That's concerning as it hits the warmest water it's had and it's going to have a northward outflow channel developing. Might make a run to get really strong. Some interference from Cuba would be nice

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Yep other than potential interaction with Cuba (which I unfortunately don't see happening atm) there really is nothing standing in it's way of strengthening one more time. It's doing the stair step thing wnw probably gonna keep it off of Cuba imo
 
Hey!
To all who have PM'd or said something publicly wising me here on the southern frontier well - Thanks! But I'm just one awfully small spot on a wall that looks to get really dirty. For you folks who can, take care of neighbors and family; for those of you who have no impact, say a prayer; for those of you who are impacted, be cool. As for me - I'm still going for OTS (LOL, of course). In the meantime, keep the good spirited analysis up, and toss a little humor when you can! We all can use a smile (even Shetley - LOL).
 
Exclusive in house model at WSB. If this model verifies, I'd still think there will be tropical force winds.
Model image from Glenn Burns at WSB.
cf2812f2e0e775f2a599eb9db8552f13.jpg


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What is PWS model? Closest I came up to info was Panasonic and I highly doubt a local news channel affiliate has access to the Panasonic stuff yet.
 
Shawn said:
What is PWS model? Closest I came up to info was Panasonic and I highly doubt a local news channel affiliate has access to the Panasonic stuff yet.
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I'm not too sure, he says it's a new model. Since it's an exclusive model, he may not be able to put out a lot of information about it.
 
WeatherWatch said:
I'm not too sure, he says it's a new model. Since it's an exclusive model, he may not be able to put out a lot of information about it.
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He has been saying that for years. Says it every winter. Last winter he said they have a model that FSU made just for his station

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NAM appears to be a little more NE of the 18z at 39hrs. Not that it means a hill of beans b/c it's the NAM.


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Storm5 said:
Haha yep, I fully expected a shift back east sometime over the next 24 hours . The wobbles will continue

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I'm sure it will play out as follows :
0Z : GFS east 50 miles, UKMET west a little, Euro west a little more too, HMON and HWRF east a bit, CMC jumps 100 miles east
6Z : GFS west 25 miles, UKMET east a hair, HMON and HWRF west a hair
12Z: GFS east half of 0Z, UKMET west a hair, Euro a little east, HMON and HWRF east, CMC in the Gulf
18Z: GFS up Central Florida, UKMET same, HMON and HWRF same

And we can all assume the NAM will flip each run sequentially. In reality, I believe we have our path to 50 miles.
 
Big changes on the NAM at h5. Atlantic ridge is shoved east and the trough over the mid atlantic is lagging

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12KM NAM shows this off greatly. Not sure if NAM is good at 5h in this scenario.. aside from horrible hurricane forecasts (usually), 5H is what dictates the path.. so can't be ignored.. especially showing the ridge/trough changes.
 
NAM maybe sniffing something out which I hope it is for FL sake otherwise it's about to get rearranged.


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Yeah, NAM 00z is a massive change at H5.. and it makes sense the hurricane would be East in this situation. Interesting..
 
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