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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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CMC moving NW day 7
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00z CMC took the route Webber talked about two days ago that weakens the storm allowing for a further west track

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Let's keep in mind this run of the CMC is an extreme western outlier. Even the ensemble members that make the gulf are not this far west

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Irma could go in the Gulf, it might end up being on of those last minute things that Irma may do.
 
Eh, I'm not sure I would call any scenario that allows Irma to reemerge out in open water a best case scenario in the case of the 00z Canadian. Granted, we wouldn't be talking about a Cat. 5 monster, but who knows for certain what Irma has the potential to do in the GOM if the environment/conditions are favorable enough for re-organization. Even moreso if Irma's core isn't completely disrupted crossing Cuba.
Case in point: Harvey. It went from a tropical wave to a Cat. 4 hurricane within 48hrs in the GOM.

That's just my two cents though.
 
if Irma is a Cat 5 or near it for the Leewards(which it has a real shot at this point) those sub 900 pressures in the Florida Straits may not be unrealistic

I have a met friend who messaged me earlier saying Keys 1935 could be challenged(892 mb, strongest US landfall on record)...same area too...
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Eh, I'm not sure I would call any scenario that allows Irma to reemerge out in open water a best case scenario in the case of the 00z Canadian. Granted, we wouldn't be talking about a Cat. 5 monster, but who knows for certain what Irma has the potential to do in the GOM if the environment/conditions are favorable enough for re-organization. Even moreso if Irma's core isn't completely disrupted crossing Cuba.
Case in point: Harvey. It went from a tropical wave to a Cat. 4 hurricane within 48hrs in the GOM.

That's just my two cents though.
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The biggest key is how much the core would get disrupted. If it gets disrupted, it may do as Webb said on the chat tonight, never fully reorganize the core. I can name several off the top of my head, Georges and Ike, ect. However some have, Emily in '05 was one.

Now if it just weakens from friction and the core is still intact, that is where it would get interesting. For instance, a full hit on Hispanola or east Cuba is bad news for any TC. But the western side of Cuba is much lower and a big circulation would probably still feed off both sides.
 
I know CMC does not have the best track verification, but CMC seems to be the first to set trend movements (at least a couple cases this year). It would not surprise me to see the Euro and GFS move some more westward over the next couple of days.
 
UKMET apparently has a hard right like the Euro where it could actually miss Florida to the east

Usually the UKMET/Euro are pretty good together, but we'll see what the Euro has at 0z
 
yeah it landfalls in Cuba and only goes out 144 so it still ends before it passes S FL, but its moving due north like the Euro did at 12z
 
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