Shaggy
Member
Seems odd with the dynamics and overall lack of junk in front to stabilize things. You would think storms would have no problem tomorrow getting going.
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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Seems odd with the dynamics and overall lack of junk in front to stabilize things. You would think storms would have no problem tomorrow getting going.
Interesting differences in the 3km and HRRR, pretty massive differences
To say the least. Have fun forecasting this one in the Carolinas
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Starting out with some fog here this morning. Seems the wedge won't break until the main line approaches, which will be our higher risk here. However that does put us here at risk from what I can tell. Going to be a long day for MS and AL.
The NAM points a nasty picture for the Carolina's tomorrow while the HRRR is on a whole other planet. But given how the NAM has been handling today, over the last few days, I am going to give it the upper hand. I think the border counties along the NC/SC borders- including CLT to about the Triangle and east really need to watch this system. The only good thing going for us is this won't be an overnight event. But that could make things that much worse too.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
I'd expect a PDS watch for alabama In the next couple hours.
NoSnowJoe
Member
Better pic of latest update
Jrips2710
Member
Tuscaloosa already nearing 70
thanksgivingbrown
Member
Power outages already in Sheffield, AL. Hopefully it comes back on for those folks before the worst comes. Gonna be a long day
At the risk of being "that guy," is it possible to focus this thread on TODAY? We have ongoing SVR on a HIGH risk day, yet there will be comments saying, "what's it going to do in Raleigh tomorrow" as a rare wx threat unfolds. Stay safe today guys... let your weather un-aware people know what's going on!
NAMs are gonna continue to look bad, geez you have the HRRR and the NAM completely apart tomorrow
Which model are you going with?
I’m may end up wrong, but this is just a guess. The best chance at a violent tornado will occur between Jackson and Hattiesburg.
Psalm 148:8
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Yes! Let’s try to keep things in the nowcast category if you don’t mind. Especially in the high risk area.
Psalm 148:8
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Tornado climatology?? If there is such a thing... for their sake I hope so.
In between
The thread is for the 16th-19th. No reason we cannot discuss both days...
This is a weather board after all.
Yes. That area always seems to get the best inflow as the storms north end cutting each other off.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I didn't realize there was a threat for the 19th.
There isn't, but when the thread was made the 19th was still in play, I believe.
Shaggy
Member
Despite the coverage being less over NC on the 3k that also means those storms will be more isolated and that could spell trouble where those storms do form.
Psalm 148:8
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I do not like the sound of that...
But this would also mean a downgrade to enhanced .. has to be widespread enough to be considered for a moderate
Probably some hail potential Friday in NC but the real threats are today and tomorrow
DadOfJax
Member
Mods...Any way we can separate this by days so the nowcasting of today isn't cluttered by potential weather for upcoming days?
Storm5
Member
Shaggy
Member
Sure but does it really matter if its enhanced or moderate if theres 4 to 5 discrete supercells recycling as they cross the state it's still a bad bad day.
We just have to watch the model trends.
Yes. I am going to start a new thread for today and leave this one open for tomorrow
I agree with you and hope that he is flat wrong. Brett, is usually pretty good with his predictions. I’ve seen some High risks bust in the past, but usually the SPC does a good job.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
oof
I started a new thread for today only. I will update the thread title for this specific thread to tomorrow and friday
Agreed. #hype
Snowflowxxl
Member
Brett Adair is one of the most knowledgeable severe weather experts around. He isn’t some hype forecaster for clicks. He wouldn’t be saying that unless he meant it. I don’t see it as being irresponsible, he’s saying what he thinks.