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Pattern Muddy March 2021

Downeastnc said:
Yeah mother nature can kiss my ass ( unless this somehow pans out for us).....its just cruel to trend it NW but not enough NW to matter.....and still not give us ----.
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Yeah no kidding. Id like to see some model jump far enough west to actually have something to get excited the ensembles should be interesting today to see if there are any more members getting on board
 
That block around Nunavut territory is trending weaker, the weaker it gets, the more the TPV sinks down towards the west, and that allows a bridge of lower heights to connect in the backwards L fashion, which could extend a SE us ridge, that block in the first place is what is saving us from completely locking in 7ADC551A-3E29-4028-B061-529124AFE8E8.pngABF057BD-36D9-43E3-8353-0D1130A57FE9.png14FB1C2A-AB47-4E45-AD5E-A706BB7ECE2B.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah mother nature can kiss my ass ( unless this somehow pans out for us).....its just cruel to trend it NW but not enough NW to matter.....and still not give us ----.
Click to expand...

In reality, of course, the trending/teasing is purely due to the poor model performance/stupidity of the models as it is already set in stone from the start what will happen. If the models were smart enough, they’d have it right from the start and thus there’d be no trending/teasing.

Related to this from Maxar this morning, ALL models recently have been solidly cold biased: check out these ridiculously large misses too cold for the SAME day:


“Models Missing Too Cold Of Late
The models have been biased too cold of late, and yesterday is an example of our forecast missing too cold. Temperatures peaked at 50° in Minneapolis (forecast was 44°), 59° in Chicago (forecast was 51°), 71° in St. Louis (forecast was 66°), 65° in Atlanta (forecast was 60°) and 53° in New York-LGA (forecast was 50°). The table on left highlights the average temperature biases over the past 15 days during the 1-5 Day period. All models have been too cold..”
 
GaWx said:
In reality, of course, the trending/teasing is purely due to the poor model performance/stupidity of the models as it is already set in stone from the start what will happen.

Related to this from Maxar this morning, ALL models recently have been solidly cold biased: check out these ridiculously large misses too cold for the SAME day:


“Models Missing Too Cold Of Late
The models have been biased too cold of late, and yesterday is an example of our forecast missing too cold. Temperatures peaked at 50° in Minneapolis (forecast was 44°), 59° in Chicago (forecast was 51°), 71° in St. Louis (forecast was 66°), 65° in Atlanta (forecast was 60°) and 53° in New York-LGA (forecast was 50°). The table on left highlights the average temperature biases over the past 15 days during the 1-5 Day period. All models have been too cold..”
Click to expand...
Even today here is a classic example, most models a few days ago had lower 60s, it’s already 65 at 12 and headed towards 70
 
Realistically, I think places down near the southeastern beaches like Morehead City & Cape Hatteras still have a shot to get some snow this weekend from this low that'll be well offshore. Outside of that, maybe we central NC can pray for a stray rain/snow shower underneath the vort max that'll rotate thru, but given how dry the boundary looks, the chances of that are virtually zero & that's pretty much it imo.
 
When the CFSv2 & EPS MJO tropical CHI200 forecasts are initializing a "strong" MJO wave that's not starting over the Maritime Continent & they both generally agree w/ one another, these 2-3 week MJO forecasts usually end up verifying.

The real question going forward is gonna be how much resistance (if any) does this upcoming Indian Ocean MJO wave put up against E US warm-ups late this month? Certainly will be interesting to watch.

I think we can say at this juncture that we are not likely (yet) to stay way above normal beyond next week given this forcing from the tropics. And who knows, it might be enough to keep the door open for one more fluke wintry chance for climo favored areas like the upper south & Apps.

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