Pattern Muddy March 2021

[ryan1234]

I actually really like we are. Nothing to get my Hope's up and just a change or 2 away from something decent. This far out suppression is always preferred for MBY. If I show snow 5-7days out here its gonna rain here and snow in the triad. Let's keep.this look till Wednesday then start ramping it up.

Bingo! Surprised no one else seems to feel the same way. Probably just from model fatigue and being disappointed all winter. A lot of good storms start with suppression and or sheared in the 5-7 day range. It's March, so we are entering a very active weather period. No reason this thing system can't bomb. I am not getting my hopes up by any means at this juncture. But I like where a lot of us sit at the moment.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

BIG winners from this euro run .. CONGRATS SOUTH CAROLINA

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

This euro run was literally one tweak away from a boom .. not concerned at all at this rate

 

[NCSNOW]

The Icon has been anything but a cold biased model. Maybe the past month has yielded hiccups,exceptions. Canadian suite I agree.
"I got sunshine on a cloudy day" just started popping through past half hour. We will leave the 50s in the dust and get in on some of the early spring wx most have been enjoying this weekend. Albeit if only for 5 hours. Heavy Rains should roll back in tonight. Ill sign up for any kind of dry right now. Desperate, pastures are a mess, septic drain lines, yard,golf course.

 

[Webberweather53]

Euro is suppressed at day 6-7 but not by much. We got this right about where we want it atm imo. Would much rather be in this position than to be bullseyed already

 

[Jessy89]

This doesn’t seem like a system that goes from snow to cold rain. This one being so suppressed tells me we will have cold. So we either have snow or cold and dry


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[Webberweather53]

This doesn’t seem like a system that goes from snow to cold rain. This one being so suppressed tells me we will have cold. So we either have snow or cold and dry


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Either way that’s fine by me, kill off the bugs and weeds staring to grow in my backyard

 

[GaWx]

This doesn’t seem like a system that goes from snow to cold rain. This one being so suppressed tells me we will have cold. So we either have snow or cold and dry


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The cold part of the forecast is getting closer to a given now. The Euro, if taken at face value, has below normal dominating the SE March 2-10 with freezes pretty deep into the SE March 7-9! It could very well be overdone, but it appears that it is still going to be a nice break from the cruddiness of the last few days from my perspective.

 

[GaWx]

There are still a few interesting members on the 12Z EPS to remind us of the “what if” scenario some are talking about, especially for places like @Shaggy ‘s home:



If anyone has the individual member precip, please post.

 

[POWERSTROKE]

Either way that’s fine by me, kill off the bugs and weeds staring to grow in my backyard

Won't kill the weeds

 

[GaWx]

So far, the Happy Hour GFS gives me little reason to think it will reverse the trend of recent runs for wintry potential 3/6-7 but we'll know for sure soon.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

18z icon looked solidly better

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So far the 18z GFS/v16 look a little bit better at H5, slightly more amped

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Still got work to do but we’re going the other way to more amplification again

 

[GaWx]

18Z GFS ends up similar to recent runs with a nothingburger.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

18Z GFS ends up similar to recent runs with a nothingburger.

At the surface it was similar (precip slightly more north) at H5 its amping up more, which is important

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

We know we’re not going to get the perfect outcome after every model cycle but the progress we’re making is good .. trends are key to every puzzle

 

[lexxnchloe]

Things are looking up.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Note*
This is still likely not gonna do anything but has some little potential

 

[Mr. Golf]

I think the lack of ridging out west is hurting y'alls chances imo