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Pattern Muddy March 2021

SD said:
Can't really be mad though getting more and more hits just hate to have to hold it for what 7 more days?
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At this point you grab the reins and ride this bull and hope.for the best. Its gonna be what it is let's just keep it suppressed and close by until 48hrs then we can look for favorable adjustments.

Of course by tomorrow it will be a warm rain or severe threat but we hold on anyways.
 
Shaggy said:
At this point you grab the reins and ride this bull and hope.for the best. Its gonna be what it is let's just keep it suppressed and close by until 48hrs then we can look for favorable adjustments.

Of course by tomorrow it will be a warm rain or severe threat but we hold on anyways.
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Yeah barring a favorable break in mid to late month this may be the last real shot
 
Tbh with that 50/50 configuration/-NAO block, that’s one of the most favorable looks this year as we’re avoiding the SE ridge to be involved in this setup, and no I’m not saying that just to --------

OTH that one January setup was also a favorable look but had no cold/snowpack above
 
Ollie Williams said:
You can tell why the 18z GEFS is better. Notice the lower heights over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. That is important to deepen the heights of the storm and pull it north.
View attachment 77203
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Let’s pull it north some more ! Look at that trend in Florida ! Mmmmm! Juicy amped cold rain please , it’s March yall snow lovers need to hop skip run bike bus train plane your booties on up to the Arctic !
 
For once the low is in a good position for me. Some potential finally. The cold air will come around the mtns, and not have to glop over coming in thin from the nw. So many times west of here gets the good sleet from banked up thin treacle. Larry, how does this match up with 73? Or that sleet in the early 80's in Atl?
 
Lickwx said:
Let’s pull it north some more ! Look at that trend in Florida ! Mmmmm! Juicy amped cold rain please , it’s March yall snow lovers need to hop skip run bike bus train plane your booties on up to the Arctic !
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But on the calendar winter doesn’t end till March 20th


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Myfrotho704_ said:
I love when these sorts of patterns fall apart, they can lead to torchy ones
Probably will likely get pushed back ?View attachment 77211
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Remember that 5 days after the 3/1/09 storm temperatures were up around 80 degrees and that was after a couple of fairly cold days right after the storm that allowed the snow to stay on the ground a couple days
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png


Low too far south on 18gfs but its better to be south than north.
 
The ULT was more west/stronger and it was colder but the ULL was weaker, threading a needle D30B2516-7B58-46E6-8EEC-011654AA773C.png51533A27-D284-4258-9E1B-BDA3763082F6.png
 
GaWx said:
From winter to summer as is more often the case with our warmer planet:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
0512 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2021

..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SAVANNAH GA

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86 WAS SET AT SAVANNAH GA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1997.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

The 86 was only 1 cooler than the monthly record of 87, set on 2/25/2018. The last 3 Febs have had 86 for the warmest. This was our 3rd day in a row of 82+. The good news is that even assuming 80+ tomorrow, which is forecasted, we will end up with only 4 days of 80+ this month vs 6+ 80+ highs the prior 4 Febs.

The forecasts from just a few hours prior keep missing the highs by several or more degrees. I blame that on the persistent cold bias of most models.
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It busted bad here but was colder than modeled. Thanks to Cad, while eastern NC pulled a Savannah
 
Lol, Full moon is out. Wedge finally tapped out.
Life is good in NC currently. Got HS Football going on. Gonna be some wrecked fields by April when it winds down. Maybe ole Roy can send some funds to re seed em all. Heavy rain on tap for tommorow night. Ive never seen the ground this wet n mushy,this long.
 
This 3/6-7 period is already pre-determined, but the models are not nearly smart enough to know what that reality is. On top of that, the models have been badly cold biased recently and the indices are overall neutral. We don't have the severely -AO to help anymore. Most likely it is already pre-destined to not be a big deal for most or all of the SE, but there's a small chance it is pre-destined to be better than that. Main message for the zillionth time: don't let the models sucker you in as they're really stupid, even the King! Expect little or nothing and that will protect you from still another disappointment. If it unexpectedly ends up good in your area, it would be a nice surprise. i hope there is that surprise. That's not because it would give me anything wintry, as that would be quite unlikely this far south based on history. It is because it would likely mean more intense cold I could enjoy for a few days.
 
This is what most of the 18z models were heading to and my exact worry ? that would be complete bullsh-t if we struggled to get a legit wave, as that’s normally not our worry 3EF7A2F5-6A25-473F-BE51-7F6DDD0659EC.png
 
This thing really didn’t show up till today. Unless it’s showing up maybe Monday or Tuesday. It’s nothing more then fun fantasy right now. But we do know March snow sometimes can produce big snows so it’s not impossible.


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