Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

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Very fast and progressive pattern we’re seeing. Can’t expect anything more than marginal climo favored setups at best out of this.

Our last system had marginal temps in upstate. And it worked out for everyone from I85 north to you in cashiers and me and Maggie valley.


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Call me crazy but I do think there’s potential for a storm next Friday. The players are on the field and this storms been showing up at times for days.


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I do think think that this timeframe has had some interest for the last few days. Like I commented the night, I just have a gut feeling that we east of the mountains score one before mid March, but I’m not buying into anything specific until 96 hours out.
 
Im a hater on this, but with a faster and more progressive pattern, that can pay off with less WAA aloft, tradeoff is crap surface temps/BL temps, I yawn
Obviously anyone prefers to have an a fresh Arctic airmass in place, but these marginal set ups can work even late in the season. It’s just depend on us getting the cold air aloft. In all honesty if you look at the set up, February 2004 was probably one of the most marginal events you’ll ever see. A negative PNA, a 1031 HP over Ontario and Quebec and there wasn’t really any cold air in place prior... the high the day before was around 50. We just had good timing and that probably going to be the key for us to see anything the rest of the winter. Having to have just the right timing though is why I’m not buying into anything specific until we’re in side 4 days.
 
A lot of things must come together exactly right for this to work. But it’s completely doable. I’d be more doubtful if we was in mid March. I say everyone let’s drop the spring talk and try to reel one last batch of fun in hopefully east of the mountains.


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One more note this morning it appeared long gone as the GFS had it in Virginia. But what the difference 12hrs makes. This thing has noise


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A lot of things must come together exactly right for this to work. But it’s completely doable. I’d be more doubtful if we was in mid March. I say everyone let’s drop the spring talk and try to reel one last batch of fun in hopefully east of the mountains.


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I say let’s somehow get it stuck out west, the N/S trough dips out quickly, and we build a death ridge and that puts a end to modeled bs quickly