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Wintry Feb 11-13 2021 Ice Potential

RGEM is starting to pick up on Saturday's potential:

prateptype.us_ma.png
 
smast16 said:
Out to lunch. Rain in hickory / Wilkes / surry County but ZR in Burlington and Raleigh?? Mmm ok.

Also, 32 and rain is not freezing rain. I don't care what these model maps spit out.
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Man your not woke
CADs don’t work the way they used to ! In the 2010s they happen in the eastern part of NC ?
 
Freezing rain events can be really tricky to forecast. The last big ice storm I remember is the one that hit here Dec 2002. I don't think it was forecasted to be that bad. I remember one time in 6th grade I was getting on the bus and it was raining, and it turned into freezing rain. The roads were an ice rink not too long after I got on the bus, and the bus ended up getting stuck at the bottom of a hill. A deputy sheriff had to take me home, and their were wrecks all over the place. It was supposed to be only rain. Like with any kind of winter event around the Triangle, a degree or two can make all the difference.
 
Nomanslandva said:
And me too. If we don't catch a thaw between the Thursday night-Friday event and that one, it could be big trouble. Temps are really close daytime Friday.
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getting nervous about this one forsure
 
There are probably going to be a lot of 32 and rain readings along I40 late Friday into early Saturday. Good thing we aren't tapping into the air mass over the midwest more effectively. This could have been a major ice storm and may still be for the NC border counties into southern va
 
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Brick Tamland said:
Freezing rain events can be really tricky to forecast. The last big ice storm I remember is the one that hit here Dec 2002. I don't think it was forecasted to be that bad. I remember one time in 6th grade I was getting on the bus and it was raining, and it turned into freezing rain. The roads were an ice rink not too long after I got on the bus, and the bus ended up getting stuck at the bottom of a hill. A deputy sheriff had to take me home, and their were wrecks all over the place. It was supposed to be only rain. Like with any kind of winter event around the Triangle, a degree or two can make all the difference.
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Winter of 88-89
 
Disclaimer: I'm not posting this to validate the accuracy of this model (so don't shoot the messenger), only to highlight that it's in the NAM's camp on temperatures, actually it's much more aggressive on the CAD. This is 00z Sat.
1613012891992.png
NAM (12km)
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NAM (3km)
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Weatherlover92 said:
Disclaimer: I'm not posting this to validate the accuracy of this model (so don't shoot the messenger), only to highlight that it's in the NAM's camp on temperatures, actually it's much more aggressive on the CAD. This is 00z Sat.
View attachment 73698
NAM (12km)
View attachment 73699
NAM (3km)
View attachment 73700
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I’ve found that the 3km NAM really starts to gain effectiveness around the 36 hour mark so it’s not really in it’s top range yet. Also even though the WRF is probably too cold, I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility of a colder look verifying. There’s a lot of snow cover to our north and it will be east for models to underestimate the strength of CAD...
 
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