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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The 6Z has the cold front clearing the Apps by 1pm Friday instead of 1am Saturday like 0z. It's good to see it's not being pushed back yet. The Euro is terrible but is seeming to fold to the GFS lately.
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much better run of the GFS here on the 6z. As you mentioned the front pushes through earlier. Good trend. Let’s hope this weekend is a continuation of this and today’s 12z Euro heads this way.
 
There is plenty of potential, the chances the models are right with the timing or the number of S/W's in the very active pattern in this range is low....that said the models are all still very much kicking us while we are down. We just got to hope that the models had it right a few days ago when they hammered us....06Z GFS was a bit better.....
 
KyloG said:
GFS got us into this mess now it needs to get us out.

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Why do we have to keep wobbling back and forth like a drunkard. Pick one way to trend and stay with it. The vortex being over western Ontario is literally the worst place it could be in. Not far enough SE to give us a real piece of cold air but too close so that we can’t warm up & avoid cold rain. Argh
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Why do we have to keep wobbling back and forth like a drunkard. Pick one way to trend and stay with. The vortex being over western Ontario is literally the worst place it could be in. Not far enough SE to give us a real piece of cold air but too close so that we can’t warm up & avoid cold rain. Argh
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Haha...I know, pick a side.
 
deltadog03 said:
I will say this, I have seen the GEFS and GFS score some victories over the euro and EPS lately. Part of me pauses to think what the hell os the euro and eps doing. The solutions are so odd. We shall see
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I’m glad to hear an experienced met point how wacky the Euro solutions are looking. It’s something that I was noticing yesterday.
 
deltadog03 said:
I will say this, I have seen the GEFS and GFS score some victories over the euro and EPS lately. Part of me pauses to think what the hell os the euro and eps doing. The solutions are so odd. We shall see
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It's time we start referring to the EMCF, not as the KIng, but rather Clown King. All models are fantasy beyond six days, but the EMCF in a matter of a couple of days has gone from a blizzard in the southern GOM, to last night's run. And I'd bet it will have yet another wild swing back to cold by tonight's run.

I do note that the 6z ICON continued to retrograde the TPV back west through the end of its run which is not want we want of course.
 
It feels like the models are forecasting phase 7 of the mjo for the foreseeable future and are spitting out patterns that match that. The reality is, the big block is going to mute that pattern, and the models will correct cooler as we work in...as long as the blocking persists.

The good news is that arctic air will be in North America. But the big problem is, until we actually get some ridging along the west coast, the cold is going to continue to dump into the western 4/5 of the country.

What that means for the southeast is continued cool/near normal conditions with some slop events possible for the very northern and western parts of the SE. The NE, Midwest, upper south-central, and western US will continue to get the bulk of the wintry weather.

We can't rule out a brief arctic intusion into the SE. But the magnitude of which has been appearing in the 10 day-ish time frame is almost certainly overdone. If, however, we see this type of cold make it across the mountains and into the area, a more serious winter threat could emerge.

The long and short of it is, the seasonal pattern of long range cold evolving to near normal temps will likely remain until we see better tropical forcing and some ridging along the west coast. If and when blocking breaks down, we will probably be discussing severe weather.
 
Rain Cold said:
It feels like the models are forecasting phase 7 of the mjo for the foreseeable future and are spitting out patterns that match that. The reality is, the big block is going to mute that pattern, and the models will correct cooler as we work in...as long as the blocking persists.

The good news is that arctic air will be in North America. But the big problem is, until we actually get some ridging along the west coast, the cold is going to continue to dump into the western 4/5 of the country.

What that means for the southeast is continued cool/near normal conditions with some slop events possible for the very northern and western parts of the SE. The NE, Midwest, upper south-central, and western US will continue to get the bulk of the wintry weather.

We can't rule out a brief arctic intusion into the SE. But the magnitude of which has been appearing in the 10 day-ish time frame is almost certainly overdone. If, however, we see this type of cold make it across the mountains and into the area, a more serious winter threat could emerge.

The long and short of it is, the seasonal pattern of long range cold evolving to near normal temps will likely remain until we see better tropical forcing and some ridging along the west coast. If and when blocking breaks down, we will probably be discussing severe weather.
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Which means we(in the eastern Southeast) may be waiting until March like always for a good pattern and by then it will be too late :(
 
This is the model bias that I have had for awhile.

Euro is the BEST in the 4-8 day range
GFS does sniff out pattern/storm 8-12 day range and then to loose them in the 4-8 day and get them back in the 1-4 day time frame

Now a days I don't know. EURO has honestly shown us a million different looks the last few days and this is what I consider it's wheel house.
 
deltadog03 said:
This is the model bias that I have had for awhile.

Euro is the BEST in the 4-8 day range
GFS does sniff out pattern/storm 8-12 day range and then to loose them in the 4-8 day and get them back in the 1-4 day time frame

Now a days I don't know. EURO has honestly shown us a million different looks the last few days and this is what I consider it's wheel house.
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Agreed. That's what's scary about it. I notice next weekend the Euro has 40's in the morning around here, the GFS is around zero. And the CMC and ICON are in the 30's.
 
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