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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

Ollie Williams said:
I have a feeling this is overdone, but I would love to be under this 50dbz band! Certainly would aid in accumulation!
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RDU gets it later in the night.
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Does this band have thundersnow potential? Also I don’t think people realize how heavy these rates would be .. full blown white out conditions and I’m sure it’ll be breezy. I have such great lighting here too YALL about to get some wild videos from me in Raleigh
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Does this band have thundersnow potential? Also I don’t think people realize how heavy these rates would be .. full blown white out conditions and I’m sure it’ll be breezy. I have such great lighting here too YALL about to get some wild videos from me in Raleigh
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Make sure you get plenty of caffeine. Going to be a long night of staying up to watch the snow.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Make sure you get plenty of caffeine. Going to be a long night of staying up to watch the snow.
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Yeah, I’m going to load up on some energy drinks at lunch. I’m going to be so screwed tomorrow with work assuming this actually works out. Work is really busy right now, too, LOL.
 
New call map from wfmy News2 -
EswAltzW8AUIrgH
 
blueheronNC said:
He cites "melting and mixing" as a reason the 3k nam could be HIGH. Mixing??? Dude needs to look at a sounding. I guess if he buys anemic rates.
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I noticed that as well. Not sure where he got mixing from. Especially from greensboro east
 
I don't usually make call maps, but I think these two snow depth maps would be good to use as goal posts for what you could measure in your yard. If the boundary level was better, there would be more to show for it.

Low End
snod.us_ma.png


High End:
snod.us_ma.png
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah, I’m going to load up on some energy drinks at lunch. I’m going to be so screwed tomorrow with work assuming this actually works out. Work is really busy right now, too, LOL.
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What kind of work you do?


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Loganelliott99 said:
Brad P. Riding and dying by the 3k nam
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I'm not saying I agree with him, but as I mentioned in a previous post, you can ALWAYS adjust upwards, but it's impossible to take back a high forecast. If you notice, that's what KRDU does for winter storms.
Honestly, how often has the higher end amounts of a forecast for snow come true in NC? Typically, not very often.
 
Got the day off tomorrow. Going to set up in/near Raleigh or Rocky Mount tonight and move east to the OBX eventually to check out some wave action tomorrow. Going to be fun experience regardless of totals, glad a lot of NC folks are going to cash in.
 
WxGSO said:
I'm not saying I agree with him, but as I mentioned in a previous post, you can ALWAYS adjust upwards, but it's impossible to take back a high forecast. If you notice, that's what KRDU does for winter storms.
Honestly, how often has the higher end amounts of a forecast for snow come true in NC? Typically, not very often.
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Yep it's much easier to forecast this way, when you go aggressive on totals and they don't verify people go ballistic. Much better to go low and bump totals up as confidence increases and from experience things typically bust on the warm side as well.
 
Poimen said:
It's beautiful to look at and all but doggone 12" over a ~5 hour time frame is more than 2" per hour. That's just impossible (it would seem).
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Its not impossible. Saw 4 per hour Jan 2000. What would be rare is to get 4 to 5 hours of 2 inch rates. Not metorlogically unfathomable with this exact situation thats about to unfold.
But i get your drift. We all are conditioned to always expect the worse lol, never beleive the pie in the sky from the models.
 
Safe to say the trend from yesterday to today has been an increase in totals on all the models, and getting more consensus with them. Nice to see just 12 or so hours away from game time.
 
NCSNOW said:
Its not impossible. Saw 4 per hour Jan 2000. What would be rare is to get 4 to 5 hours of 2 inch rates. Not metorlogically unfathomable with this exact situation thats about to unfold.
But i get your drift. We all are conditioned to always expect the worse lol, never beleive the pie in the sky from the models.
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If any part of the Triad gets 12" I'll be glad to buy you any kind of pie you want ;)
 
superjames1992 said:
I’m in SW Durham towards Chapel Hill right off of Garrett Road and US-15-501, by the TJ Maxx! What about you?
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Oh ok, cool. We used to be in American Village and just moved to NE Durham. If you follow guess road to where it turns into a two lane, hang a left there and we’re about a mile north.


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