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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

I think some lucky spots get 2" out of this, I think the NAMs are just way too dry still, I think the GFS is overdoing it and I honestly think the Euro is little too dry as well (less than 48 hrs not in it's wheelhouse).
 
Not bad from RAH:

Meanwhile, the surface low will move through the area tomorrow
evening and off the coast early Thursday morning, deepening rapidly
as it does so. As would be expected, strong cold advection will
commence tomorrow evening with a rain to snow changeover looking all
but certain for areas along and north of US 64. Partial thicknesses
would indicate the best potential for a changeover would be in the
06Z - 12Z timeframe, but that could occur a few hours earlier if we
get any sort of CSI banding or intense snowfall rates to develop.
While some accumulations appear likely (an inch or less) north of US
64, little if any accumulation is expected to the south where cold
air will arrive too late and moisture will have run out by the time
it gets there.

Today`s probabilistic guidance from the GEFS has increased storm
total snowfall accumulations quite a bit but EC ENS is a bit more
reserved and more realistic looking. There`s a handful of factors
that would lend themselves toward lower snow totals. The lack of a
strong surface ridge over eastern Canada is concerning and while
there is cold air upstream, we`d be much more confident in
significant snow totals if the ridge was parked over Ontario vs
Manitoba. Secondly, the surface wave rapidly moves out of the area
and offshore, really only giving us a good 6 hours of snow potential
vs a slower moving system. Surface soil temperatures aren`t overly
cold either (40s) but that could be overcome with intense snow
rates. Overall given the variety of solutions out there, erring on
the lower end of the distribution seems to be prudent at this time.

&&
 
FallsLake said:
Not bad from RAH:

Meanwhile, the surface low will move through the area tomorrow
evening and off the coast early Thursday morning, deepening rapidly
as it does so. As would be expected, strong cold advection will
commence tomorrow evening with a rain to snow changeover looking all
but certain for areas along and north of US 64. Partial thicknesses
would indicate the best potential for a changeover would be in the
06Z - 12Z timeframe, but that could occur a few hours earlier if we
get any sort of CSI banding or intense snowfall rates to develop.
While some accumulations appear likely (an inch or less) north of US
64, little if any accumulation is expected to the south where cold
air will arrive too late and moisture will have run out by the time
it gets there.

Today`s probabilistic guidance from the GEFS has increased storm
total snowfall accumulations quite a bit but EC ENS is a bit more
reserved and more realistic looking. There`s a handful of factors
that would lend themselves toward lower snow totals. The lack of a
strong surface ridge over eastern Canada is concerning and while
there is cold air upstream, we`d be much more confident in
significant snow totals if the ridge was parked over Ontario vs
Manitoba. Secondly, the surface wave rapidly moves out of the area
and offshore, really only giving us a good 6 hours of snow potential
vs a slower moving system. Surface soil temperatures aren`t overly
cold either (40s) but that could be overcome with intense snow
rates. Overall given the variety of solutions out there, erring on
the lower end of the distribution seems to be prudent at this time.

&&
Click to expand...

I think we could get a couple of inches from this one and more Sunday.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
FWIW I do you think the HRRR did do a lot better than the nam joo with the graupel and snow event A couple weeks ago
Click to expand...
I mentioned this earlier, but the NAM totally nailed the front end stuff, and predicted all the dry air, while the HRRR had several inches of snow. On the other hand, the HRRR was better with the backend while the NAM had barely anything.
 
prateptype_cat.us_ma.png
 
If the GFS is right on temps, RDU will fall sharply to 32 as the heavy snow starts. Then it will fall a few more degrees as the storm winds down. Also this will occur overnight, so ratios very well could be 10:1. Looking at the 10:1 maps compared to the Kuchera there's not a huge difference (8" vs 7"). **that's if the GFS is correct.
 
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