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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

Are there any obvious inhibiting factors to keep this thing from really bombing out? It looks nearly perfect this morning on visible satellite.
 
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Beautiful
 
NWTENN said:
Are there any obvious inhibiting factors to keep this thing from really bombing out? It looks nearly perfect this morning on visible satellite.
Click to expand...
At this point all we can hope for is Harvey undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle before hitting Texas and ingests a helping of dry air into its western semi circle
 
Well I would say near land there is always dry air to worry about, but until then, it’s got some very warm water and an upper level anticyclone...... so it could super be off to the races.
 
Saw this on another board. to good to pass up. Not happening but you dont see this everyday in model fantasy world. Like a sub 880 pressure.
nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_28.thumb.png.b1e7fa9b6758798e1264238efeae9b6b.png
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 241326
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 28 20170824
131700 2321N 09340W 8455 01478 0016 +175 +167 328035 037 027 001 00
131730 2319N 09341W 8422 01512 0017 +175 +156 329034 035 028 001 00
131800 2318N 09342W 8429 01505 0019 +176 +150 327032 034 025 002 00
131830 2317N 09343W 8429 01502 0018 +175 +154 328030 032 024 002 00
131900 2316N 09345W 8432 01500 0016 +172 +151 327028 030 025 003 00
131930 2314N 09346W 8420 01504 0016 +167 +152 330030 032 024 004 01
132000 2313N 09347W 8437 01489 0015 +170 +155 325028 029 025 002 00
132030 2312N 09348W 8429 01501 0016 +168 +159 322029 029 024 002 00
132100 2311N 09350W 8432 01500 0019 +169 +148 323026 029 024 002 00
132130 2310N 09351W 8425 01505 0020 +167 +142 327025 026 022 002 00
132200 2308N 09352W 8431 01499 0018 +170 +146 326025 026 022 001 00
132230 2307N 09353W 8429 01502 0020 +168 +149 326026 027 021 001 00
132300 2306N 09355W 8434 01500 0021 +168 +159 322025 027 020 001 00
132330 2305N 09356W 8428 01505 0022 +168 +156 325026 027 022 001 00
132400 2304N 09357W 8432 01504 0021 +172 +149 324025 027 021 001 00
132430 2302N 09358W 8432 01504 0023 +175 +140 323024 025 020 001 00
132500 2301N 09400W 8430 01506 0021 +177 +136 322024 025 020 001 00
132530 2300N 09401W 8432 01506 0022 +180 +134 325024 025 019 001 00
132600 2259N 09402W 8430 01507 0023 +179 +133 328025 025 019 001 00
132630 2258N 09403W 8428 01511 0025 +175 +143 327024 025 018 001 00
$$
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Webberweather53 said:
At this point all we can hope for is Harvey undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle before hitting Texas and ingests a helping of dry air into its western semi circle
Click to expand...

Yeah, worst case IMO is if this levels off as say a strong Cat 1/weak 2 to only RI right at landfall. To be honest the best case may be for Harvey to boom up to Cat 4 or so and then as you said have a ERC hit right before landfall.
 
In other news, I love watching strong convection band around a developing eye. Can I do a Abrams or Rainbow Weed Guy and cry about it here?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Gas prices are gonna definitely take a hit because of Harvey, probably wouldn't be a bad idea to fill up before prices go up a butload.
Click to expand...
Yep, I can see gas going from the lower $2 you to the mid $2 during this storm, and especially for it goes off and back over most of the oil rigs out there.
 
I remember when Hurricane Rita hit, gas prices went up to $4 - $5/gal. There was sure large concern about gas shortages that the gov. here in GA at the time closed schools for about 2 days in the Atlanta metro area. However, in that situation I think the oil rigs in the GOM were evacuated and shutdown prior to Rita approaching the Gulf coast.
 
And with the devastation brought by Katrina, the weather world was gun shy at that point too, and rightfully so. I'll be really surprised if there's not a notable spike in gas prices for a while.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
I remember when Hurricane Rita hit, gas prices went up to $4 - $5/gal. There was sure large concern about gas shortages that the gov. here in GA at the time closed schools for about 2 days in the Atlanta metro area. However, in that situation I think the oil rigs in the GOM were evacuated and shutdown prior to Rita approaching the Gulf coast.
Click to expand...

Luckily we have more domestic, private oil sources now than we did then but gas is still going to skyrocket
 
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000
URNT15 KNHC 241416
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 33 20170824
140700 2331N 09254W 8433 01480 9999 +174 +174 228039 039 034 007 03
140730 2332N 09255W 8432 01479 9994 +173 +173 227041 042 036 008 00
140800 2333N 09256W 8429 01477 9995 +165 +165 231046 047 038 010 00
140830 2334N 09257W 8429 01473 9984 +170 +168 230047 048 038 007 00
140900 2335N 09259W 8432 01466 9983 +169 +168 227047 048 039 008 00
140930 2336N 09300W 8430 01461 9975 +168 +166 230049 050 041 006 00
141000 2337N 09301W 8429 01456 9963 +176 +170 229051 052 043 006 00
141030 2338N 09302W 8431 01450 9959 +176 +176 231053 054 045 007 00
141100 2339N 09303W 8425 01449 9952 +176 +176 230054 055 045 008 00
141130 2341N 09305W 8430 01434 9941 +179 //// 236054 056 052 006 01
141200 2342N 09306W 8430 01427 9927 +183 //// 240053 056 053 006 01
141230 2343N 09307W 8429 01420 9918 +181 //// 243049 052 047 005 05
141300 2344N 09308W 8424 01418 //// +178 //// 244045 046 041 003 01
141330 2345N 09308W 8429 01403 //// +180 //// 246048 049 040 003 01
141400 2347N 09309W 8424 01397 9881 +188 +179 249047 049 042 002 00
141430 2348N 09310W 8433 01378 9860 +205 +180 255046 052 043 001 00
141500 2350N 09310W 8428 01370 9847 +207 +176 253030 037 038 002 00
141530 2351N 09311W 8429 01365 9843 +202 +173 257022 029 024 002 00
141600 2353N 09312W 8424 01364 9833 +209 +168 252016 020 019 002 00
141630 2354N 09312W 8428 01354 9828 +215 +169 232009 014 017 001 03
$$
;
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 241426
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 34 20170824
141700 2356N 09313W 8422 01358 9823 +219 +166 142006 007 017 000 00
141730 2357N 09315W 8421 01361 9825 +215 +170 057015 021 018 000 03
141800 2356N 09316W 8435 01347 9831 +210 +173 019024 026 017 001 03
141830 2354N 09317W 8425 01361 9836 +204 +179 331025 026 /// /// 03
141900 2353N 09315W 8409 01378 9834 +209 +175 292023 026 027 001 00
141930 2352N 09314W 8428 01360 9836 +212 +168 266025 026 025 002 00
142000 2351N 09312W 8419 01377 9841 +214 +163 258032 037 026 001 03
142030 2349N 09311W 8429 01372 9846 +215 +174 262038 039 033 003 00
142100 2348N 09310W 8426 01389 9867 +204 +174 261050 053 049 002 00
142130 2346N 09309W 8426 01401 9887 +196 +171 249049 050 050 002 03
142200 2345N 09308W 8425 01411 9901 +184 +169 236053 053 /// /// 03
142230 2346N 09306W 8426 01409 9900 +182 +175 223055 057 /// /// 03
142300 2348N 09306W 8434 01389 9884 +192 +165 226054 055 051 002 00
142330 2349N 09307W 8418 01392 9862 +202 +173 229049 054 050 003 00
142400 2350N 09308W 8427 01370 9849 +199 +184 231037 044 050 002 00
142430 2351N 09309W 8428 01361 9838 +205 +171 234031 033 034 002 00
142500 2353N 09310W 8432 01350 9828 +212 +165 225025 028 024 001 00
142530 2354N 09311W 8428 01349 9821 +215 +167 223017 023 024 001 00
142600 2355N 09313W 8429 01345 9815 +223 +164 201006 013 019 002 00
142630 2356N 09314W 8427 01351 9821 +220 +166 047006 011 017 000 00
$$
;
 
Storm5 said:
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Click to expand...
And my phone announces "Harvey" every time y'all post something, so now I will never get any work done. :)

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ForsythSnow said:
I wouldn't if this thing becomes a major. If you have never been in a hurricane before, I don't recommend going. They aren't fun and if you chased to the coast, you probably won't be making it back home soon given all the flooding.
Click to expand...

I had the idea too but the flooding issues is really driving me away from it

I'm also not really prepared for it and if this thing blows up into a monster there's gonna be other problems

and I can't be away from Dallas that long due to work lol
 
ForsythSnow said:
I wouldn't if this thing becomes a major. If you have never been in a hurricane before, I don't recommend going. They aren't fun and if you chased to the coast, you probably won't be making it back home soon given all the flooding.
Click to expand...
This isn't my first encounter with a hurricane (hermine & matthew) so I have some experience. Yes, getting stuck does concern me this time because I am in school...
 
Snowfan said:
000
URNT15 KNHC 241426
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 34 20170824
141700 2356N 09313W 8422 01358 9823 +219 +166 142006 007 017 000 00
141730 2357N 09315W 8421 01361 9825 +215 +170 057015 021 018 000 03
141800 2356N 09316W 8435 01347 9831 +210 +173 019024 026 017 001 03
141830 2354N 09317W 8425 01361 9836 +204 +179 331025 026 /// /// 03
141900 2353N 09315W 8409 01378 9834 +209 +175 292023 026 027 001 00
141930 2352N 09314W 8428 01360 9836 +212 +168 266025 026 025 002 00
142000 2351N 09312W 8419 01377 9841 +214 +163 258032 037 026 001 03
142030 2349N 09311W 8429 01372 9846 +215 +174 262038 039 033 003 00
142100 2348N 09310W 8426 01389 9867 +204 +174 261050 053 049 002 00
142130 2346N 09309W 8426 01401 9887 +196 +171 249049 050 050 002 03
142200 2345N 09308W 8425 01411 9901 +184 +169 236053 053 /// /// 03
142230 2346N 09306W 8426 01409 9900 +182 +175 223055 057 /// /// 03
142300 2348N 09306W 8434 01389 9884 +192 +165 226054 055 051 002 00
142330 2349N 09307W 8418 01392 9862 +202 +173 229049 054 050 003 00
142400 2350N 09308W 8427 01370 9849 +199 +184 231037 044 050 002 00
142430 2351N 09309W 8428 01361 9838 +205 +171 234031 033 034 002 00
142500 2353N 09310W 8432 01350 9828 +212 +165 225025 028 024 001 00
142530 2354N 09311W 8428 01349 9821 +215 +167 223017 023 024 001 00
142600 2355N 09313W 8429 01345 9815 +223 +164 201006 013 019 002 00
142630 2356N 09314W 8427 01351 9821 +220 +166 047006 011 017 000 00
$$
;
Click to expand...

Now if I remember how to read these right, that is 981mb with a 13kt wind. So that would be close to 979-980 extrapolated correct?
 
NHC forecasting the 12 year major streak to end

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
 
The official forecast now calls for a 100 kt (115 mph) major hurricane...

...HARVEY QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED...
 
South AL Wx said:
The official forecast now calls for a 100 kt (115 mph) major hurricane...

...HARVEY QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED...
Click to expand...

Cue the climate change crowd.......


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Storm5 said:
Cue the climate change crowd.......


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Click to expand...
I don't think they have a case unless the NAM is right. LOL. What is scary is that it is strenghtening so fast and that if the forecast jumped from a cat 1 to a cat 3 at landfall, it could do it again. I fear we will be looking at a 4 at landfall.
 
From the discussion:

With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in
previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite
concerning. Water vapor images indicate that the cyclone's outflow
is expanding--indicative of low shear--and Harvey will be moving
over a warm eddy of high oceanic heat content in the western Gulf of
Mexico in about 24 hours. As a result of these conditions, several
intensity models, including the ICON intensity consensus, are now
explicit showing Harvey reaching major hurricane intensity. What's
more astounding is that some of the SHIPS Rapid Intensification
indices are incredibly high. As an example, the guidance is
indicating a 70 percent chance of Harvey's winds increasing by 45 kt
over the next 36 hours. Based on this guidance, the NHC official
intensity forecast now calls for Harvey to reach major hurricane
strength by 36 hours, before it reaches the middle Texas coast.
 
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