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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

Snow shower coverage progressively dropping off over successive HRRR runs early tomorrow in NC corroborating what I'm seeing on verifiable soundings from tonight. Even still, just because the model doesn't explicitly depict anything in its forecast fields &/or there are no radar returns doesn't mean it may not be snowing especially with a DGZ so low like this.
 
Snow shower coverage progressively dropping off over successive HRRR runs early tomorrow in NC corroborating what I'm seeing on verifiable soundings from tonight. Even still, just because the model doesn't explicitly depict anything in its forecast fields &/or there are no radar returns doesn't mean it may not be snowing especially with a DGZ so low like this.
How about for SC?
 
HRRR still shows snow showers tommorow morning in GA.
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_14.png
 
I was sent this pic that is supposedly of snow in Marietta! Did any of y'all see that much snow in Marietta?!?

View attachment 60048

Absolutely not. We would have had a half inch to an inch had it stuck. I’ve got some crust on the deck, that’s it.
 
I think any accumulation in the Triad is highly unlikely. We'll be lucky to have a few flakes before it ends. (In my opinion at least). I'd be more than happy to eat crow though!
If you got as much water everywhere as we do here, it's gonna take a true miracle to get any accums. Gotta flash freeze the mini lakes first lol
 
Lol I also noticed this. They say a broken clock is right twice a day, apparently this broken clock found a way to be wrong all the time!
Looking at that, I’m honestly not to worried about tomorrow, it seems to be handling the snow out west very poorly given how low those DGZs are, i just want some flurries to fall, while those big convective bursts were nice and all on previous runs, low expectations are needed in a setup like this
 
I was sent this pic that is supposedly of snow in Marietta! Did any of y'all see that much snow in Marietta?!?

View attachment 60048

Thanks for the replies. My first impression was that it was fake news and was why I said "supposed" snow in Marietta, but wanted to make sure from those in Atlanta. Did it snow and stick anywhere near that much anywhere in GA outside of the mountains?
 
Yeah, I think the HRRR may pan out best tomorrow for NC if radar returns and mPing reports out west are any indication, but not necessarily for the right reasons. Pretty clear that there's been a bias in the model that doesn't get corrected until hour 0, which to me screams a problem with the model's physics/boundary layer than with any data it's ingested: (check out over Mississippi)
hrrr_Td2m_seus_fh0_trend.gif
But it's pretty obvious looking west that even the CAMs are clearly missing some of the forcing for ascent in the low levels, so I suspect that we'll still see flurries across the area, even if the HRRR had its dewpoints too warm.
 
Yeah, I think the HRRR may pan out best tomorrow for NC if radar returns and mPing reports out west are any indication, but not necessarily for the right reasons. Pretty clear that there's been a bias in the model that doesn't get corrected until hour 0, which to me screams a problem with the model's physics/boundary layer than with any data it's ingested: (check out over Mississippi)
View attachment 60061
But it's pretty obvious looking west that even the CAMs are clearly missing some of the forcing for ascent in the low levels, so I suspect that we'll still see flurries across the area, even if the HRRR had its dewpoints too warm.
I thought they fixed this bias with the old hrrr ??‍♂️ Old hrrr had the same issues
 
this is gonna be close even here, can see the sharp front moving close, and a band trying to get going to my west View attachment 60062View attachment 60063
It almost looks like the cold air spilling in from the west-southwest. This takes a little bit of the down sloping away. The wind just shifted here and is now coming from the west. I actually wonder if we can crash temps quick enough here over the next hour if there might be a few flakes here this evening
 
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