Doubt that. It’s still the very long range NAM so whether it’s showing beefy totals or nothing at all it shouldn’t be taken serious until we get inside 36-48 hours. It had a 1035 HP sitting further south closer to the US border so I think we are sitting pretty as of right now.
What trend? Outside of the euro there isn’t a trend.
Dewpoint. Another poster hit the nail on the head. These warm dews we experience anymore will do a number on what would have been a classic CAD even 5 years ago.
Most of the models have me at 33 and rain for a good portion of the event. But even if that was to drop a degree of two, that still wouldn't give me (or others in similar setup) a big event. As you said, we need the lower dew point to web bulb down into the upper 20s. Ice cycles are pretty but it means your losing a lot to run off.
cloudy miserable day. Some cold rain, any ZR or sleet probably last under 2 hours at onset. Patchy mix.
2m Temps, dew points have both trended warmer in my area of the upstate on the Nam
It does which makes it’s temp profiles in the long range warmer. That’s something that switched on the nam from years past. That’s why the rule of thumb is to really not put much stock into the nam until you get inside 36-48 hrs.
For us upstaters, I think it's still too early to say yet, but there's no question it's very marginal for us. The high is much farther north than you want to see it; we need to see down around NY/PA, which would more likely be a snow situation. Given what are currently seeing I-40 north and I-77 west is a good bet for at least something frozen. For the upstate, especially western upstate, it looks like a novelty event at best; for now.
Webber said yesterday the high placement being in Quebec compared to NY has little to no affect in the CAD. Especially when you’re talking a 1035-1038 HP. If you live in eastern Pickens, Greenville, Spartanburg, Cherokee, western York, and northern union county you have a good chance of seeing a decent icing event IMO. Seeing the 3KM being much colder than the 12km at Hr 60 is a telling sign to me as well.
The snow part is pure wishcasting but it's happened before. All depends on 850s how close they get before warm nose takes over here at my house I'm only a degree away from all snow at onset.
Wow there is a lot more going on further south this run. Has it been like this the past few runs?
While it’s unlikely, and probably to aggressive by some members, can never count it out, but yeah it has been back and fourth with runs showing stuff further north then south
I count 13/20 showing pretty significant ZR in the Upstate there. That’s getting closer to a consensus than outliers. However you’re right those members, despite being in the majority, are not really in agreement with the other models
Went back the other way a bit
Your not lying it has been very consistent the last 3 runs, although it’s trended towards more ZR instead of IP for more NW areas
Do you think the models maybe just aren’t translating it on the precip maps so it’s making people think the upstate be out of it? Living in the best CAD position in SC I have seen this many times. Models trying to underestimate CAD, models trying to erode it way too fast, and models being anywhere from 2-5 degrees too warm, and models trying to drive the LP into the CAD. We’re seeing this now. If you have a 1037 HP even in Quebec that’s got a solid 12-24 hour head start on the LP, I just don’t see anyway you don’t get significant ice in the Piedmont, foothills, and the upstate. Especially those from Anderson to Laurens to Union north.
