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Tropical Eta

The gfs stalls near South Florida for the entire work week next week lol then eventually goes towards the Panhandle Big Bend like the Euro
 
Euro seems not very believable heading west in the gulf and dissipating. Navgem and Icon like the storm to emerge from Cuba closer to the Bahamas and head more north. Gfs seems like it has the right idea but no telling. navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_fh126_trend.gif
 
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Well, by the time this potentially threatens the SE, we will need the rain. So we might as well pull for it, the jet stream will be. Ha.
 
Thor said:
Euro seems not very believable heading west in the gulf and dissipating. Navgem and Icon like the storm to emerge from Cuba closer to the Bahamas and head more north. Gfs seems like it has the right idea but no telling. View attachment 51716
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Hard to believe that it goes east of Florida with the SER building in the next few days. I actually think something similar to what the 6z GFS showed this morning is probably a fairly reasonable expectation
 
How is NHC stilll calling this a depression? I don't envy their position with how to exactly handle the situation, but there is no LLC at all.
 
thunderwolf said:
How is NHC stilll calling this a depression? I don't envy their position with how to exactly handle the situation, but there is no LLC at all.
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Messaging I'm sure has a lot do with it. With the Florida threat and also now they keep more storms impacting land alive after the whole Sandy debacle
 
Euro has a weakening system, maybe weak TS, heading to Ms/Fl border next Friday
 
ETA looks good on satellite this morning but I'm not sold that it had a vigorous LLC yet, will wait for visible satellite. Regardless quite the mess shaping up. Once it crosses Cuba a south Florida or keys landfall looks probable as a TS maybe a low end hurricane depending how how the interaction with the upper low and the first legal landfall over Cuba impact the system. Even with that an expanding wind field looks likely as the storm starts to become more subtropical. The 1027-1030 high will be moving off shore increasing the gradient and onshore wind from NC southward so beach erosion will become an issue. After the potential landfall in SFL the system will likely be pulled west back into the gulf and moisture will start streaming northward into the SE as a front approaches associated with a trough passing through the lakes and the SE ridge gets squeezed a bit southeast. Pwats will increase and we will likely see near record high pwats for the time of year and have a good focus for rain/storms starting by mid week. A widespread 1-3 inches of rain for a good part of NC/SC/Ga looks likely with a core of 3-6 within that likely. I'm not sure a second landfall of ETA takes place the storm may eat so much dry air and shear as it interacts with the trough the LLC eventually spins down or dies off inching south. Regardless the southern and eastern parts of the Fl peninsula will have a few days of heavy rain and gusty wind.
 
SD said:
ETA looks good on satellite this morning but I'm not sold that it had a vigorous LLC yet, will wait for visible satellite. Regardless quite the mess shaping up. Once it crosses Cuba a south Florida or keys landfall looks probable as a TS maybe a low end hurricane depending how how the interaction with the upper low and the first legal landfall over Cuba impact the system. Even with that an expanding wind field looks likely as the storm starts to become more subtropical. The 1027-1030 high will be moving off shore increasing the gradient and onshore wind from NC southward so beach erosion will become an issue. After the potential landfall in SFL the system will likely be pulled west back into the gulf and moisture will start streaming northward into the SE as a front approaches associated with a trough passing through the lakes and the SE ridge gets squeezed a bit southeast. Pwats will increase and we will likely see near record high pwats for the time of year and have a good focus for rain/storms starting by mid week. A widespread 1-3 inches of rain for a good part of NC/SC/Ga looks likely with a core of 3-6 within that likely. I'm not sure a second landfall of ETA takes place the storm may eat so much dry air and shear as it interacts with the trough the LLC eventually spins down or dies off inching south. Regardless the southern and eastern parts of the Fl peninsula will have a few days of heavy rain and gusty wind.
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Definitely looks wet
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@Shaggy totally agree, that qpf map is sad.... nobody wants that type of rain this time of year. It really hurts farmers who are in the middle of harvest
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Seems kind of odd to show a lot of rain in South FL, then not much in North FL, then more rain in GA ? Why the rain hole in between ?
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Makes landfall in south Fl, then moves west into gulf, most of the heaviest rain stays south and then the moisture gets pulled northward by the trough, bringing the 2nd axis of heaviest precip northward but west of N. Fl
 
Special advisory

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph
(95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
expected through Sunday night.
 
This thing strengthening in the gulf scares me if it decides to shoot north.
 
TWC just said a few models support Eta making a run at major hurricane status
 
Lol at these ensemblesFB_IMG_1604788886040.jpg
GFS going crazy with intensity in the Gulf

received_1260349510992572.jpeg



gfs_ir_seus_17.png

then it moves south and dies, never makes another landfall lol
 
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