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Tropical Hurricane Zeta

All around the weather is going off script. Been raining nonstop here since this morning and we already have an inch. Storm is moving east of the track which will bring heavier rains and wind even more south and east. Could be by only 10-20 miles, could be 50-60 miles, who knows.
 
Downeastnc said:
Crazy......only 75 knts at the surface, going to run out of time to get its inner structure rebuilt enough to maximize those winds....if it had 12 more hrs....
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101 knots 10 mb above that. That's only a few hundred feet at the most. It'll take very little time and mixing to get those on the surface.
 
The projected track is to right over Lake Ponch. in LA. It looks to me like it is still aiming for it.
 
Downeastnc said:
Crazy......only 75 knts at the surface, going to run out of time to get its inner structure rebuilt enough to maximize those winds....if it had 12 more hrs....
Click to expand...

That makes sense considering what the HMON and HWRF shows. Large difference between 850mb and the surface. The HWRF maxes at 88knts after landfall and the HMON barely gets over 100knts right at landfall.

Considering how well it’s modeled so far, we should see some ungodly flight level winds in the NE eyewall the next pass.
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 91.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES
 
Arcc said:
That makes sense considering what the HMON and HWRF shows. Large difference between 850mb and the surface. The HWRF maxes at 88knts after landfall and the HMON barely gets over 100knts right at landfall.

Considering how well it’s modeled so far, we should see some ungodly flight level winds in the NE eyewall the next pass.
Click to expand...

Hurricane Isabel was like that for me here in NC FL winds over the SW eyewall were 120 KNTS and we gusted to 55 at the surface in the eyewall....we actually got into the calm of the eye....

It really comes down to how well organized the core wind field is...and what happens as the storm transitions.....again its late Oct and the cane is interacting with a strong cold front.....the "sting" jet can be a very real thing...I will be surprised to see anything over 65-70 mph well inland though ( like N GA into the Carolinas ) outside of the higher mts etc.
 
This storm is still strengthening atm possible to see a hight cat 2?
 
Obviously a little different with track but this was hurricane Opal in 95 . The widespread wind damage in Birmingham was extensive . Other than the blizzard of 93 this was my second favorite storm
b4ad63d8e894c01de450a14545cebdff.jpg



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Jrips2710 said:
In my experience, if you take 25-30% off these values it can paint a fairly accurate picture of what to expect. That’s widespread 50-60 mph gusts with upside for higher. Going to be a wild night!


New euro View attachment 51251
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That right here would be crazy but we know you have to cut it in half to get the real totals.
 
Poimen said:
Any chance we get a TS warning in the Triad? RAH seemed less than enthused with wind potential in their morning update.
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Very doubtful. I don't see more than a couple of gusts in the 30s or maybe low 40s once you get just away from the track.
 
Downeastnc said:
Hurricane Isabel was like that for me here in NC FL winds over the SW eyewall were 120 KNTS and we gusted to 55 at the surface in the eyewall....we actually got into the calm of the eye....

It really comes down to how well organized the core wind field is...and what happens as the storm transitions.....again its late Oct and the cane is interacting with a strong cold front.....the "sting" jet can be a very real thing...I will be surprised to see anything over 65-70 mph well inland though ( like N GA into the Carolinas ) outside of the higher mts etc.
Click to expand...

I think the whole extratropical transition will help determine how bad the effects inland will be.
 
GSP slipping the rainfall amounts line south and east. more widespread 2-4" amounts across the northern upstate especially.
 
Jrips2710 said:
In my experience, if you take 25-30% off these values it can paint a fairly accurate picture of what to expect. That’s widespread 50-60 mph gusts with upside for higher. Going to be a wild night!


New euro View attachment 51251
Click to expand...

Those are way overdone, the Euro/HRRR are easily the worse ones....you need to half those values.....they both had me gusting to 100 mph in Isaias and we hit 55-60 mph peak gust.....
 
Downeastnc said:
Those are way overdone, the Euro/HRRR are easily the worse ones....you need to half those values.....they both had me gusting to 100 mph in Isaias and we hit 55-60 mph peak gust.....
Click to expand...

While I agree the forward motion of this storm will most likely give these values a higher chance to verify . Storms are not apples to apples


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078
URNT15 KNHC 281842
AF309 1728A ZETA HDOB 20 20201028
183330 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9736 +131 +085 221020 020 019 000 00
183400 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9733 +133 +084 221020 021 022 000 00
183430 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9733 +133 +084 221020 021 022 000 00
183500 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9733 +133 +084 221020 021 022 000 00
183530 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9733 +133 +084 221020 021 022 000 00
183600 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9733 +133 +084 221020 021 022 000 00
183630 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9737 +124 +075 227038 052 022 000 05
183700 2757N 09053W 6967 02920 9753 +117 +116 231050 055 /// /// 05
183730 2757N 09054W 6966 02917 //// +118 //// 227044 048 /// /// 05
183800 2759N 09054W 6969 02912 9741 +128 +115 217038 041 /// /// 03
183830 2800N 09052W 6960 02914 9737 +124 +117 216046 054 043 002 01
183900 2800N 09050W 6968 02910 //// +114 //// 212063 069 069 001 01
183930 2800N 09048W 6969 02914 //// +113 //// 211078 081 081 002 01
184000 2801N 09045W 6967 02926 9788 +117 //// 209088 095 085 004 01
184030 2801N 09043W 6962 02944 9813 +123 +123 211104 108 084 017 00
184100 2801N 09040W 6975 02944 9839 +121 +121 211111 112 087 017 00
184130 2801N 09038W 6971 02967 9856 +107 //// 207105 112 087 010 01
184200 2801N 09036W 6963 02988 9865 +111 +111 206107 109 080 007 00
184230 2802N 09033W 6966 02998 9884 +112 +112 205105 107 075 009 00
184300 2802N 09031W 6967 03010 9907 +112 +112 199113 119 071 016 00
$$
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Flight-level winds of 119 kts have been found.
 
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