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Tropical Hurricane Zeta

WXinCanton said:
122662226_3755788561100545_5103306712129574263_o.jpg
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Though it may be a little too low, FFC NWS map of highest gusts for ATL metro of 35-40 looks more likely to verify to me than the map posted here on the previous page that Ella Dorsey put out, that has gusts way up into the 50s and 60s, which would be similar to Opal. I experienced Opal and it was very bad. I’m not trying to minimize the 35-40 as that would be plenty enough for dangerous falling trees/limbs as well as lots of power outages. But I just think the Opal like 50s to 60s seems a bit much and may be based on models that tend to overdo these. Similar to Opal, Zeta will be moving very rapidly and likely even faster. That’s bad news as that will prevent that much weakening of the storm by the time it gets to the area. And there is the concern about extratropical energy being added. But remember that Opal was a cat 3 H when it made landfall and was still a cat 1 H when it was well up into AL. Zeta is expected to be only a cat 1 H at landfall and will weaken somewhat when going inland.
Make no mistake, this will be a big wx event though.

My forecast is for highest KATL wind gusts to be near 45, which is higher than the NWS’ 35-40 but lower than Ella Dorsey’s 54. There will be many trees and large limbs down along with lots of outages.

Any other predictions for KATL?

Edit: Now if Zeta landfalls as a cat 2 instead of cat1, then it may be close to an Opal for ATL.
 
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GaWx said:
Though it may be a little too low, FFC NWS map of highest gusts for ATL metro of 35-40 looks more likely to verify to me than the map posted here on the previous page that Ella Dorsey put out, that has gusts way up into the 50s and 60s, which would be similar to Opal. I experienced Opal and it was very bad. I’m not trying to minimize the 35-40 as that would be plenty enough for dangerous falling trees/limbs as well as lots of power outages. But I just think the Opal like 50s to 60s seems a bit much and may be based on models that tend to overdo these. Similar to Opal, Zeta will be moving very rapidly and likely even faster. That’s bad news as that will prevent that much weakening of the storm by the time it gets to the area. And there is the concern about extratropical energy being added. But remember that Opal was a cat 3 H when it made landfall and was still a cat 1 H when it was well up into AL. Zeta is expected to be only a cat 1 H at landfall and will weaken somewhat when going inland.
Make no mistake, this will be a big wx event though.

My forecast is for highest KATL wind gusts to be near 45, which is higher than the NWS’ 35-40 but lower than Ella Dorsey’s 54. There will be many trees and large limbs down along with lots of outages.

Any other predictions for KATL?
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I predict 53 for KATL
 
GaWx said:
Though it may be a little too low, FFC NWS map of highest gusts for ATL metro of 35-40 looks more likely to verify to me than the map posted here on the previous page that Ella Dorsey put out, that has gusts way up into the 50s and 60s, which would be similar to Opal. I experienced Opal and it was very bad. I’m not trying to minimize the 35-40 as that would be plenty enough for dangerous falling trees/limbs as well as lots of power outages. But I just think the Opal like 50s to 60s seems a bit much and may be based on models that tend to overdo these. Similar to Opal, Zeta will be moving very rapidly and likely even faster. That’s bad news as that will prevent that much weakening of the storm by the time it gets to the area. And there is the concern about extratropical energy being added. But remember that Opal was a cat 3 H when it made landfall and was still a cat 1 H when it was well up into AL. Zeta is expected to be only a cat 1 H at landfall and will weaken somewhat when going inland.
Make no mistake, this will be a big wx event though.

My forecast is for highest KATL wind gusts to be near 45, which is higher than the NWS’ 35-40 but lower than Ella Dorsey’s 54. There will be many trees and large limbs down along with lots of outages.

Any other predictions for KATL?

Edit: Now if Zeta landfalls as a cat 2 instead of cat1, then it may be close to an Opal for ATL.
Click to expand...
I agree that I doubt we see something as insane as Opal here. The Euro showing up to 70 yesterday here I know is overblown. I say the max however for gusts would be 60 mph. Now that I have a proper weather station set up I'll be able to record what we get exactly here as compared with Irma where I just had to guess.
 
HWRF 12z run would be bad for New Orleans. Center heading NE at a good pace just west of the city, putting the highest winds in the city.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I agree that I doubt we see something as insane as Opal here. The Euro showing up to 70 yesterday here I know is overblown. I say the max however for gusts would be 60 mph. Now that I have a proper weather station set up I'll be able to record what we get exactly here as compared with Irma where I just had to guess.
Click to expand...


Those products always seem to be quite over-blown. I would imagine that you have to multiply the output by .4 or so to get a better idea of what to expect.
 
Huge difference in wind gust forecast from Spann and the NWS. Spann says gusts 45-50 in South AL and NWS says 65 mph gusts.Screenshot_2020-10-27-16-26-56~2.png
 
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