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Tropical Hurricane Zeta

Chris Justices on Facebook live just said that most of the upstate will see 60mph gust. His map also had Hartwell having 70mph gust. ?
 
See my fear is if GSP doesn’t issue TS watches/Warnings. Schools won’t take this seriously. Do we really want buses out in 40-50 mph wind gusts and heavy rain? Seems to me schools should be paying attention.


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wxdaniel said:
Winds won’t be sustained above Hurricane force. Gusts are possible. I have never really understood why we issue Tropical Warnings 200+ miles inland.


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The NWS decided after Hurricanes Hugo, Opal, and Fran to start issuing tropical warnings for inland area so that the threat of inland damage would be taken more seriously. In those storms, the NWS forecast seriously damaging winds far inland, but the feedback that they got from local governments was that they didn’t feel as though enough warning was given to the possible extent of damage. The first storm that they actually started issuing inland watches and warnings was Floyd in 1999.
 
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GaWx said:
Zeta will be moving even faster than Opal. I now think gusts into the 50s are quite possible in parts of ATL area.
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This seems like the most realistic upper end IMO.....here is the NHC wind field plot for the 1am inland plot when it is still a TS, obviously the SE quad is where its at, its also a fairly small system......still its late Oct this thing is going to interact with a strong front so there is room for this to bust big I guess and put 50-60 mph gust down over the interior SE and Carolinas....

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.
 
RAH really talked up wind gusts in their overnight afd. As @Jessy89 mentioned earlier the models are showing the strongest winds S/E of the center where the precipitation is less and the potential exists for thin clouds and patches of sun to raise the mixing heights and help bring down some of the stronger winds in the 925-850mb layer. Would not be at all surprised to see a wind advisory tomorrow, you can actually see on the NAM below as daytime mixing increases the aerial coverage of the stronger winds increases across the Carolinas


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if the power goes out, cool air to follow.
 
Downeastnc said:
How much impact is felt well inland by this the storm has a lot obviously to do with how it transitions as far as how much wind makes it to the surface.....also how organized the wind field is at landfall etc.....modeled wind maps in these events especially inland are typically very overdone.....

How much wind inland areas see will have a lot to do with how/when it transitions, kinda like Isaias which gave me 50-60 mph gust in the eastern eyewall 3 hrs after landfall while still fully tropical but gave people in NE gust well into the 70-80's the next day as it went extratropical....

So my experience with these maps says take 20-25 off this for the highest values, that will be ball park peak gust.....there will be some isolated higher gust and I guess if this goes more like Isaias goes then some of these values could pan out. So 50-60 should be absolute peak by this time with the storm...with more likely widespread 40-50 gust.....

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I do think the models are overdone on wind as usual, but they might to be as much as we’re use to seeing. One thing to keep in mind that will add to the wind potential is the very fast forward movement of the storm itself. Being that it’s movement is going to be NE, the greatest effect that the forward movement has to increased wind speed would be to the SE of the track of the center and that’s exactly where the models are showing the strongest wind to be. I would rule seeing a few reports of 60mph+ gusts across northern GA. As for the Carolinas 40-50mph gusts seems a good bet, but it could be higher depending on when the trough begins to interact with the center.
 
Chazwin said:
The NWS decided after both Hurricanes Hugo, Opal, and Fran to start issuing tropical warnings for inland area so that the threat of inland damage would be taken more seriously. In both of those storms, the NWS seriously damaging winds far inland, but the feedback that they got from local governments was that they didn’t feel as though enough warning was given to the possible extent of damage. The first storm that they actually started issuing inland watches and warnings was Floyd in 1999.
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The whole warning criteria is still a mess. I voiced my concern a while ago. Why should we add to warnings that basically cover what a hurricane or tropical storm warning covers, ie: Flash Flood Watch, High Wind Warning will be fine well inland. Even in a hurricane warning we have multiple warnings ie: Storm Surge, Flood warning, ect. Why should we confuse the general public more then is needed.


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Wasn't expecting an inch of rain already but we have gotten it this morning. At this rate I'd expect widespread power outages in NW SC and SW NC with overperforming rain totals and wind gusts over 30mph. Will catch a lot of people off guard im afraid.
 
SD said:
RAH really talked up wind gusts in their overnight afd. As @Jessy89 mentioned earlier the models are showing the strongest winds S/E of the center where the precipitation is less and the potential exists for thin clouds and patches of sun to raise the mixing heights and help bring down some of the stronger winds in the 925-850mb layer. Would not be at all surprised to see a wind advisory tomorrow, you can actually see on the NAM below as daytime mixing increases the aerial coverage of the stronger winds increases across the Carolinas
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Yeah the mixing is key, most models have the 925's over us in the 50-55 knt range at around 2100 ft.....so any decent mixing should be able to push gust into the 45-50 mph range especially 50-100 miles SE of the center track where more clearing means more rising air....
 
Zeta is really starting to turn up the heat on upshear convective bursting, which via differential advection by the deep-layer shear, should allow Zeta's vortex to temporarily realign and briefly weaken the shear, favoring significant short-term intensification. It won't be long before this becomes a category 2 hurricane imo

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Jessy89 said:
When does GSP issue there afternoon package anyone know?


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SD said:
In the afternoon :)
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Just read their overnight AFD and that forecaster seemed to think winds weren't that big of a deal as they just mention gusts to 30kts in passing. I wouldn't be surprised to see a wind advisory for your area as well
 
SD said:
Just read their overnight AFD and that forecaster seemed to think winds weren't that big of a deal as they just mention gusts to 30kts in passing. I wouldn't be surprised to see a wind advisory for your area as well
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That’s honestly what I think Gsp will do. Wind advisory. Because Gsp is really conservative. But the guy on the weather channel seems to think TS watches or warning will be extended into western sc/nc areas. So we see


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Something is off with the forecast for a lot of areas. FFC has the detailed forecast saying gusts to 30 mph. Meanwhile here, gusts to 35. Not to mention that it wasn’t supposed to be raining here now, at least this heavy.


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