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Tropical Hurricane Sally Inland Effects

GSP is riding the WPC forecast for now, sticking to widespread 4-6” but mentions a localized 8-9” total is expected
 
Only 3"-4" of rain for me in the latest guidance. I was going to put out grass seed, but i'm thinking i'll just put it all in a line at the top of the hill now, and let the deluge wash into the yard. lol
 
Not sure if anyone noticed this..but here I’m under a Flood Watch. That’s a big difference compared to a Flash Flood Watch areas further south are under according to the NWS.
 
1-3 inches in 24 hours so failed to meet the criteria of the word “flash” per NWS AFD.
 
6z euro courtesy Allan Huffman






Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx
·
15m

The 6z ECMWF shows the axis of heaviest rain from Elizabeth City to Raleigh to Charlotte into upstate SC. 4-8 inches possible. #Sally
https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1306212110511353856/photo/1

EiCY-_vXcAE8F5A
 
As [mention]Myfrotho704_ [/mention] pointed out two days ago about the possibility of severe weather in South Carolina and points toward Jacksonville NC. It’s looking more and more a sure thing. The warm Atlantic air mass colliding with a cold front and tropical air mass could cause scattered funnel clouds. Buoyancy will not be particularly strong, though a couple of factors may contribute to pockets of moderate instability, including areas of insolation, which could locally increase MUCAPE values around or above 1000 J/kg in the pre-convective airmass and slightly higher dewpoints/boundary-layer moisture over South Carolina and vicinity due to maritime influences from the Gulf Stream

8d6f474a11dcd115c27401e3a1d183eb.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
NoSnowATL said:
Yep like I thought. My guess is 2-4 but hope 3-5 is possible. Kirk Mellish is thinking 1-3 for most areas but 2-4 SE areas with 6in in spots.
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HRRR latest 12z shows around 2" to 2.5" for most of Atlanta. I'm thinking around 2" to 3" for my area. I don't believe the Euro output. Watching trends to the SW for sure. This won't make any flash flooding as it's been several weeks without measurable rainfall.
 
WXinCanton said:
6z euro courtesy Allan Huffman


Allan Huffman
@RaleighWx
·
15m

The 6z ECMWF shows the axis of heaviest rain from Elizabeth City to Raleigh to Charlotte into upstate SC. 4-8 inches possible. #Sally


EiCY-_vXcAE8F5A
Click to expand...


Going to just sit here quietly and imagine that's a 48 hour snowfall map in inches. With that being the case, I'll estimate about 50% of what's shown to be reality. For MBY anyway.
 
SnowNiner said:
Going to just sit here quietly and imagine that's a 48 hour snowfall map in inches. With that being the case, I'll estimate about 50% of what's shown to be reality. For MBY anyway.
Click to expand...
If it was winter I would love where I was because usually the heaviest always ends up 1-3 counties further north than shown. But in this case I do believe 1-3 counties south of me so southern Iredell to Charlotte could see those 2-4” amounts.
 
SnowNiner said:
Going to just sit here quietly and imagine that's a 48 hour snowfall map in inches. With that being the case, I'll estimate about 50% of what's shown to be reality. For MBY anyway.
Click to expand...

C’mon man... 4-8” possible for Elizabeth City? Dude, my yard is a swamp as it is.
 
IDK why..I’m just never a fan of these too many color maps. Esp when upslope can be triggered in the north faster than down East they usually out to lunch. 1172BBEF-CA06-42D6-8F3C-C678DE1A3215.jpeg
 
weatherfide said:
Also showing another 1004 mb low in the gulf at the end of the run. A second gulf low would not be good so closely following a big rain event.
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That would be the real problem child. The 6z GFS and the 0z Canadian (to some degree) also showed another storm hit.
 
Even farther north toward this area a severe storm can't be ruled out a decent amount of ML CAPE should lead to some elevated convection, 925 mb winds around 35-40kt 850 kt 45-50kt could be forced down in some of the convection. Also notice that PWAT of 2.35, really going to squeeze out some heavy rainfall tomorrow afternoon through early Friday

1600273476177.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Tons of 3CAPE/low LCLs is gonna allow anything that spins to be a real threat tomorrow
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Yep I'm not sure if I favor down toward the midlands or up closer toward the border where the low level winds will be really backed closer to the remnant LLC. Looks like some areas south of the "warm front" may end up getting into a little sun tomorrow too, yikes
 
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