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Tropical Hurricane Sally Inland Effects

ryan1234 said:
As much as I love GSP... their precip maps tend to bust, a lot. FCC has 2-3", 4-6" etc. GSP tries to be too precise. I also loathe the fact that our closest NWS office is a good 70 miles away. The CLT-Winston-GSO corridor in a very unique spot, climatology speaking. We also sit on the edge of multiple NWS offices. If CLT manages to see 2 inches and GSP gets 6 inches in a setup like this, then something isn't right. (Good god, I've become the "leader of the bird cult.") Help meeee.
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Just keep in mind that those totals are only through 8pm Thursday and the heaviest for Charlotte metro comes overnight Thursday and through the day Friday. Even still I would expect to see some heavier totals close to Charlotte by Thursday evening if anything gets going along the wedge boundary.
 
0z NAM sticking to its guns. A non event north of I-20 in the Carolinas. Some of upstate SC under .05 out of it. The slower movement right now says the NAM will be right about this track. I expect the Euro and GFS to go way south tonight or early tomorrow. If this does miss the next 2 weeks look dry so drought will become the big story north of I-20.
 
JHS said:
0z NAM sticking to its guns. A non event north of I-20 in the Carolinas. Some of upstate SC under .05 out of it. The slower movement right now says the NAM will be right about this track. I expect the Euro and GFS to go way south tonight or early tomorrow. If this does miss the next 2 weeks look dry so drought will become the big story north of I-20.
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But I’ll say this the difference between the 32km nam and 12km nam is night and day different. One has this as a non even up ne Georgia upstate sc and most of N.C. while the other still dumps 2-4 inches of rain in some of those areas. I wouldn’t hug either solution


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NHC latest track is farther south and I suspect it goes even farther south than that. The center may never get into SC at all, going back out south of Savannah GA. I can see us being sunny and dry the rest of this week with not a drop north of I-20.
 
CADEffect said:
GSP tonight.

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If they treat this like snow, they start low and raise as it gets to point blank range!
 
Rain Cold said:
Haha I don't really get all the hand-wringing over the NAM all the time. Next to the JMA, it might be the worst model ever invented. I'll give it some credence when it it shows a warm nose, but that's about it.
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Just funny that 12 hours ago the system was going to be suppressed into the southern hemisphere and the NAM was the crown jewel. Oops
 
NoSnowATL said:
I think NGA rain totals get cut in half today as well. Probably 1-4in north of I-20 is a safe bet.
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I don’t see anything that would make them do that right now. Almost all the models are dropping around 4-6 inches of rain across north Georgia. Just beacuse the center of the storm will pass to the south doesn't mean those to the north get the shaft. Most models show the north side holding a bulk of the heavier rain anyway.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I think NGA rain totals get cut in half today as well. Probably 1-4in north of I-20 is a safe bet.
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You're forgetting the jet streak. That's what's going to give us the boost in rain anyway and it would take the low going through Florida for us to get nothing.

Note the ICON as an example of how far south it is.
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