• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Dawgdaze22 said:
What do you think the likelihood of another SE impact is?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The potential degrees of freedom is extremely high when you have 4-5 TCs simultaneously in a small area of the Atlantic in conjunction w/ an unpredictable upstream pattern, aside from the fact that there's 23 days left in the month, we really don't know where these storms are going to go >>> it not smart of anyone whatsoever to say the SE US will avoid seeing any significant TC impacts in September when we simply just don't know that.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Huh, it's almost like we actually don't legitimately know where any of these storms are going and if the SE US will get off scott-free the rest of the month. Weird how uncertainty works.
Click to expand...

I mean they had Laura an open wave but people are shocked the models are changing :p

or how it shifted from Florida to almost Texas(and the EPS was deep into Texas) but nevermind
 
For the wave still in Africa, the 0Z UKMET is bullish a bit further south than the 12Z run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.0N 16.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2020 60 12.0N 16.7W 1003 33
0000UTC 11.09.2020 72 12.2N 19.7W 993 40
1200UTC 11.09.2020 84 12.4N 22.7W 983 52
0000UTC 12.09.2020 96 13.1N 25.5W 981 50
1200UTC 12.09.2020 108 13.8N 28.8W 979 50
0000UTC 13.09.2020 120 14.7N 31.8W 976 54
1200UTC 13.09.2020 132 15.7N 34.7W 972 63
0000UTC 14.09.2020 144 17.0N 37.3W 969 67
 
0Z King for the wave still inside W Africa looks like that aggressive run from the other day that was moving steadily westward: ??

A8F44D05-CD30-42DD-A1EB-7D2472F26371.png
 
Last edited:
Brent said:
I mean they had Laura an open wave but people are shocked the models are changing :p

or how it shifted from Florida to almost Texas(and the EPS was deep into Texas) but nevermind
Click to expand...

I mean you have to inherently know that our models are almost always poorly dispersed and will rarely if ever see the true range of solutions.
 
00z Euro....not a good look....and aligns with 06z GFS for the island path......00z. CMC riding low for this one too....

ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_08_09_06_36_102.jpgScreenshotCapture_2020_09_08_09_08_09_195.jpgScreenshotCapture_2020_09_08_09_04_51_451.jpg
 
Looking at what I think is a never ending train of storms coming from Africa in the next two weeks (longer on the GFS.) The system I’m more concerned about has yet to emerge off the African coast. (May be Vicky.) Paulette’s course, and the NAR placement will have a impact where this system will move. It’s ire similar to Irene a couple of years ago. I have notice the ridges over Europe has been weakening and is allowing the Northeast ridge to move further east. This will impact Paulette and may cause her to loop in the middle of the Atlantic. Need to keep an eye on those ridges next couple of days.


c03da70cdee23d080f8ca32cbde0f759.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
CADEffect said:
Looking at what I think is a never ending train of storms coming from Africa in the next two weeks (longer on the GFS.) The system I’m more concerned about has yet to emerge off the African coast. (May be Vicky.) Paulette’s course, and the NAR placement will have a impact where this system will move. It’s ire similar to Irene a couple of years ago. I have notice the ridges over Europe has been weakening and is allowing the Northeast ridge to move further east. This will impact Paulette and may cause her to loop in the middle of the Atlantic. Need to keep an eye on those ridges next couple of days.


c03da70cdee23d080f8ca32cbde0f759.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

That 966 over PR! Oh boy. pay attention to that one. And we can’t rest on Paulette yet


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This supposedly ends up near Florida in the later frames beyond 300 hours (for some reason tidbits crashed)

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_39.png
 
CADEffect said:
Looking at what I think is a never ending train of storms coming from Africa in the next two weeks (longer on the GFS.) The system I’m more concerned about has yet to emerge off the African coast. (May be Vicky.) Paulette’s course, and the NAR placement will have a impact where this system will move. It’s ire similar to Irene a couple of years ago. I have notice the ridges over Europe has been weakening and is allowing the Northeast ridge to move further east. This will impact Paulette and may cause her to loop in the middle of the Atlantic. Need to keep an eye on those ridges next couple of days.


c03da70cdee23d080f8ca32cbde0f759.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I read the one at 12z today isnt like that at all.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
Over/under on how many more US landfalls this season.. 1.5??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Laura was the exception, but looks like most of the systems don't want anything to do with landfall here.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top