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Tropical Hurricane Laura (Post Landfall & Inland Effects)

Models so far fairly anemic over the Carolinas aside from right along the NC/VA border. Surprised at this given the southerly fetch and pressure falls into a system passing by to the north should set up well for convective development and enhance the Piedmont trough.
 
The NHC just keeps tracking the remnants further and further north. It has gone from the NC/VA border to Central WVA since late this morning. Not really sure why though.
 
This would be a nasty little event if the icon verified, sfc temps ahead of this line is in the upper 80s along with dews probably in the 70s which suggest some cape and solid 3km lapse rates AB867323-6368-47F8-B4F1-E38D07ED892B.png26BAA0CC-49F9-420E-9BF8-329BF66A3F92.png5AF862D5-CD72-4437-AC96-E704C50B44B8.png
 
18z Icon was actually a little stronger with the trough associated with Laura over NC and maybe a few inches south. The NHC discussion says that it'll nice east yet the track is more NE. No idea
 
Sleet City USA said:
Well that certainly looks like MBY would get at least clipped. When’s the last time the Carolinas had a big severe day from a cane that didn’t landfall in the Carolinas?
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Possibly 2004 from Frances. That storm came in over Fla and gave the Carolina's quite a few tornadoes. Not the last time of course, but Danny in 1985 produced a tornado that did a lot of damage on the northwest side of Spartanburg.

Edit: It could have been Ivan later on in 2004, but I think the worst of that outbreak was in VA.
 
If the EURO or UKMET are right my area for any severe would be Eastern TN/Western third of VA/Western third of NC and a little smidge of NW SC.
 
blueheronNC said:
Taking the clown maps literally, gusts would exceed what we got from Isaias. NC mountains would get the Camille treatment.

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Yeah but models, especially the Euro and HRRR, were showing stronger winds than that with Isaias that never verified. Now if that lp tracks like the Euro shows, with those winds at H85 like @Myfrotho704_ posted above, bulk shear, a little instability, high PW than there's going to be some severe, no doubt
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah but models, especially the Euro and HRRR, were showing stronger winds than that with Isaias that never verified. Now if that lp tracks like the Euro shows, with those winds at H85 like @Myfrotho704_ posted above, bulk shear, a little instability, high PW than there's going to be some severe, no doubt
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I could see those gusts being close in this case if the system stays intact and we get a line of storms.
 
There maybe power outages even in NC mountains


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When the east turn happens once Laura is on land. That’s gonna be crucial for what areas like upstate sc NE Georgia and NC sees. Amongst other areas


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We are in trouble. Talk about a pattern changer. May hurt our Fall color with leaves coming down esp NC mountains.
 
Nam definitely supports some severe, these are the soundings more with the TC itself, somewhat large hodographs with a super moist column, which tells me low topped stuffB6329CE6-AAAB-46FA-A2F3-23DFE4759E74.png09478060-C5E3-4578-A4CA-ACD75269A33F.pngB5453137-D939-494E-BC82-AB6E445DA5B4.png
Then later along the cold front around central/eastern NC which is questionable but LRs are improved and low level hodographs are large 201329BF-78EE-43C4-ABEC-74268A03F525.pngB2E5B01C-EEC8-4428-AF4D-13227447C5B3.png249B8EC8-6C65-4E2A-A3CB-7512A300FEF8.png
 
That Euro storm wind map seemed a bit excessive. They always seem to overdue those, so I’m not surprised. I doubt we will see 60mph wind gusts without storms or rain bands pushing the winds to the surface, right?


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ryan1234 said:
That Euro storm wind map seemed a bit excessive. They always seem to overdue those, so I’m not surprised. I doubt we will see 60mph wind gusts without storms or rain bands pushing the wind to the surface, right?


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Outside of the mountains yes though I could see us getting into the 20-30 range Saturday
 
If Camille did 27” in 8 hours I wouldn’t rule out 10” somewhere near Boone NC to Martinsville Virginia with life threatening flash flooding. It’s gonna be isolated but whoever gets it is gonna think this was the worst hurricane in their lifetime..
 
I see the ICON shifted back north and the GFS continues to be the northern most, curious to see what Euro shows in a bit

edit: Still should be a decent squall line with the ICON
 
The winds could verify this time having some non-tropical interactions coming down from Canada. We didn’t have that with the last storm I can’t spell.
 
metwannabe said:
I see the ICON shifted back north and the GFS continues to be the northern most, curious to see what Euro shows in a bit

edit: Still should be a decent squall line with the ICON
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It’s kinda a tradeoff, closer COC means higher kinematics but higher junk/less instability while one more farther away means less kinematics but higher instability
 
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