Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

  • Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Status
Not open for further replies.
LithiaWx said:
the model has been off on deaths in the wrong direction. The last two days have seen the death toll fall outside the range on the high end. I think the model isn't perfect but that twitter post left out that key detail that the model has missed on the death toll on the low side so far.
Click to expand...

Not on individual states. Yes, nationally it has been on the higher side of the model projections, But that is because some places have peaked faster, but for instance AL using the current model projection was supposed to have 18-20 deaths yesterday, they had 6. It has been way over doing AL for the past three days. Looking at known cases, there is basically no way the curve will be close.
 
Arcc said:
Not on individual states. Yes, nationally it has been on the higher side of the model projections, But that is because some places have peaked faster, but for instance AL using the current model projection was supposed to have 18-20 deaths yesterday, they had 6. It has been way over doing AL for the past three days. Looking at known cases, there is basically no way the curve will be close.
Click to expand...

sadly I disagree. If we are sub 100k deaths (which is what the average on that model shows) by August 1st I’ll be shocked.

this model shows 40k - 180k deaths by 8/3/20 with a mean of about 92,000. Sadly I think that’s what happens. Looks like most of that happens in the next 60 days. Do you?682200A0-7854-4365-BD08-003845A4DC00.png
 
LithiaWx said:
sadly I disagree. If we are sub 100k deaths (which is what the average on that model shows) by August 1st I’ll be shocked.

this model shows 40k - 180k deaths by 8/3/20 with a mean of about 92,000. Sadly I think that’s what happens. Looks like most of that happens in the next 60 days. Do you?View attachment 38339
Click to expand...

Nationwide, I don't know. However a lot of states are gonna have to see much faster growth rates to get close to the projected total. Right now the CFR is running 2-3% of confirmed cases or 20-30/1000. If their peak is correct you have to assume an absolute explosion of cases in the next 7-10 days. Before the model goofed and went haywire with AL numbers it was showing 1143 deaths and max rate of 37 deaths a day on the peak of April 20th. To get those numbers, AL would be at almost 2000 cases a day somewhere around April 10th. I think AL had 240 confirmed cases yesterday.

Now all of this assumes the peak plays out like modeled. If it is a flatter but longer peak, all this is worthless at this point.
 
LithiaWx said:
sadly I disagree. If we are sub 100k deaths (which is what the average on that model shows) by August 1st I’ll be shocked.

this model shows 40k - 180k deaths by 8/3/20 with a mean of about 92,000. Sadly I think that’s what happens. Looks like most of that happens in the next 60 days. Do you?View attachment 38339
Click to expand...
I agree it will be bad but that model has overestimated things recently. It will be updated today.
 
LetItSnow said:
Had a great conversation with my Son who has a degree in Computational and Applied Mathematics about the "data."

Unless you have exact comparables for all variables there's no true comparison, there are however emotional ones.

Per capita is just as wide open as anything, you need to consider environmental conditions/population density/age/health/etc as factors.

Obviously there is raw death data, it's not pretty, and nothing should minimize the seriousness of the situation with what we currently know, there are definitely a lot of unknowns too.
Click to expand...
Good post! In all of that data is a number of people recovered too which is good news.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
This model will be updated today:

covid19.healthdata.org

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org covid19.healthdata.org

I strongly suspect the numbers and impact will be significantly reduced which will be a huge blessing

Fingers crossed
Click to expand...

IHME is funded by Bill Gates (a globalist). Dr Birx sits on the board. And NO, I'm not a conspiracy Theorist, but I can at least say that my eyes are wide open... HMMMMM.... (read thread at your own peril)

 
Here's something that seems to have been overlooked about the Small Business Administration's new economic injury disaster loans: the loans (which can be as much as $10,000) are available to self-employed independent contractors as well as to small businesses that have less than 500 employees.

Processing of loan applications for regular small businesses began yesterday, and independent contractors can apply starting April 10th. These loans never have to be repaid - they should really call them "grants" instead of "loans".

covid19relief.sba.gov

COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan | U.S. Small Business Administration

covid19relief.sba.gov covid19relief.sba.gov
 
Ran one take today in my area and roads are packed

People definitely not staying home as it looks like an ordinary Saturday for us working folks
 
  • Like
Reactions: LickWx
I’m still confused as to how is N.Y. doing so much testing. I keep hearing down here places saying we still don’t have enough test kits. Is this something the states are ordering and paying for? Just don’t understand how some places seem to be able to test as many as they want to.
 
My wife says people are out everywhere. She’s on her mail route and as usual, nothing has changed around here. People going about their daily business like no one has been ordered to stay home and only go out for essentials.

I stay home all the time. I got rock slider step rails for my truck via UPS and put them on my 4X4 today. Now I’m inside with a heating pad on my back since I overdid it. The joys of having two back surgeries and needing a third. Yay.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Brent and Bham 99
For detailed perspective of just New York and Italy; nothing is good about any of this however it does put things in a bit of perspective. Italy by far has been hit horribly.

New York City has by far the worst Deaths Per Square km but nothing in comparison to Italy's % of Deaths Per Cases or the two hardest hit areas of Italy. And New York City is driving the overall New York State % of Deaths Per Cases substantially higher.

We'll probably never know the true details of deaths attributed to Corona and nothing in this is meant to minimize the situation; just providing a bit more of the data.

Of note will be have we been successful enough in trying to lock down major metropolitan areas which by far due to population density provide a hospitable climate for the virus to spread. Also ensuring the large gatherings don't happen; we still won't know the impacts of all those morons who went to Florida for Spring Break. All of it takes people paying attention and being smart; unfortunately we all know how that works and it really doesn't matter who tells them to do it; people are people..

At the end of the day absolutely nothing compares to Italy; that by far is a tragedy in and of itself; even if there were underlying conditions a percentage of the deaths could be attributed to.

1586024025520.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: Brent, Bham 99, Metwannabe and 1 other person
  • Dislike
  • Like
  • Weenie
Reactions: Brent, crecre9, Deleted member 527 and 1 other person
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom
Back