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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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Shaggy said:
Promising news for NC

www.witn.com

'A Reason For Optimism': Model data suggests NC COVID-19 exponential growth rate trending downward

A reason for optimism is welcome these days, and its a feeling that was expressed by one health professional who has been modeling COVID-19 data for North Carolina.
www.witn.com www.witn.com
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GA’s # of cases the last 24 hours rose much less than previous 24 hours. If I see several more days of this, I’m going to feel some optimism that the social distancing and other measures are widespread enough to make a huge difference. I’m still thinking that by mid April we should see a major trend improvement.
 
GaWx said:
GA’s # of cases the last 24 hours rose much less than previous 24 hours. If I see several more days of this, I’m going to feel some optimism that the social distancing and other measures are widespread enough to make a huge difference. I’m still thinking that by mid April we should see a major trend improvement.
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FL was likewise today; my only concern is weekend reporting. Mid-April would be nice, but if that happens, and with that rouge DNA flying around, it would mean 1) don't let the guard down when the graph drops, and 2) mid-June may be the opening of a safe and open harbor ... ? ? ?
 
Let's say that the numbers decline because of social distancing efforts. They obviously won't go to zero, but dropping is certainly possible. What happens next, assuming there is no medicine or vaccine? Opening things back up would allow numbers to increase again, right? So we'd find ourselves back on lockdown again, and this process would continue until there is herd immunity or a treatment is available, right? What am I missing?
 
Rain Cold said:
Let's say that the numbers decline because of social distancing efforts. They obviously won't go to zero, but dropping is certainly possible. What happens next, assuming there is no medicine or vaccine? Opening things back up would allow numbers to increase again, right? So we'd find ourselves back on lockdown again, and this process would continue until there is herd immunity or a treatment is available, right? What am I missing?
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Not one damn thing ...
...except maybe if you are reading this you're missing an Andy/Opey & Barney re-run ... :cool:
 
Rain Cold said:
Let's say that the numbers decline because of social distancing efforts. They obviously won't go to zero, but dropping is certainly possible. What happens next, assuming there is no medicine or vaccine? Opening things back up would allow numbers to increase again, right? So we'd find ourselves back on lockdown again, and this process would continue until there is herd immunity or a treatment is available, right? What am I missing?
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Education education education. Drill social distancing and personal spacing into everyone's head for the next few weeks. When we begin reopening make sure everyone knows to follow this or we see a return to these measures. More importantly make sure business know this. If a movie theater reopens only fill them.1/3 full and allow empty seats. Bowling alleys only rent out half their lanes and only every other lane. EDUCATION
 
Shaggy said:
Education education education. Drill social distancing and personal spacing into everyone's head for the next few weeks. When we begin reopening make sure everyone knows to follow this or we see a return to these measures. More importantly make sure business know this. If a movie theater reopens only fill them.1/3 full and allow empty seats. Bowling alleys only rent out half their lanes and only every other lane. EDUCATION
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I agree with the premise, but I don't think there is any way that most people in the United States are going to all that it takes to avoid the virus. Even if you have a 1/3 crowded theater, they're still going to touch the popcorn counter, touch the seat that someone else touched, grab the bathroom door handle, etc. We have never lived through a crisis like this and so many people will not take it seriously unless they're forced to. It's unfortunate.
 
Rain Cold said:
I agree with the premise, but I don't think there is any way that most people in the United States are going to all that it takes to avoid the virus. Even if you have a 1/3 crowded theater, they're still going to touch the popcorn counter, touch the seat that someone else touched, grab the bathroom door handle, etc. We have never lived through a crisis like this and so many people will not take it seriously unless they're forced to. It's unfortunate.
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If we can survive the initial spike and can flatten the curve to not overwhelm the system then maybe we can allow a slow burn, a controlled fire so to speak. Then rely on herd immunity to continue slowing it down.

Dangerous times ahead as decisions have to be made.
 
Shaggy said:
If we can survive the initial spike and can flatten the curve to not overwhelm the system then maybe we can allow a slow burn, a controlled fire so to speak. Then rely on herd immunity to continue slowing it down.

Dangerous times ahead as decisions have to be made.
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I wonder if this will lead to a permanent increase in the % of folks working from home?
 
Shaggy said:
Basically the only people working with us are floor workers. Purchasers, bean counters, customer service and even HR are all working from home.
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If this becomes permanent worldwide, would this be enough to significantly reduce CO2 and slow down or stop further GW?
 
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GaWx said:
If this becomes permanent worldwide, would this be enough to significantly reduce CO2 and slow down or stop further GW.
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I think so. We should be getting a good look at data now showing the impacts already. Unnecessary travel for trips and airline traffic is likely going to be suppressed for a solid 6 months at a minimum.
 
Shaggy said:
Education education education. Drill social distancing and personal spacing into everyone's head for the next few weeks. When we begin reopening make sure everyone knows to follow this or we see a return to these measures. More importantly make sure business know this. If a movie theater reopens only fill them.1/3 full and allow empty seats. Bowling alleys only rent out half their lanes and only every other lane. EDUCATION
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Exactly if what we have been doing has this much effect on it this quickly, it will not be hard to keep this down low if common sense is followed. That along with rapid tests will slow this down alot. I do think that limiting gatherings will stay in place for a while which effectively kills football season.

To add on the declining trend, AL only reported 99 cases today and from what I'm reading elsewhere, LA is still adding backlogged cases and daily hospital and ventilator growth is dropping pretty good. Not the end but very promising trends.
 
Shaggy said:
I think so. We should be getting a good look at data now showing the impacts already. Unnecessary travel for trips and airline traffic is likely going to be suppressed for a solid 6 months at a minimum.
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www.scientificamerican.com

How the Coronavirus Pandemic Is Affecting CO2 Emissions

Curtailed travel could temporarily lower emissions, but increased home energy use might offset that
www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Rain Cold said:
I agree with the premise, but I don't think there is any way that most people in the United States are going to all that it takes to avoid the virus. Even if you have a 1/3 crowded theater, they're still going to touch the popcorn counter, touch the seat that someone else touched, grab the bathroom door handle, etc. We have never lived through a crisis like this and so many people will not take it seriously unless they're forced to. It's unfortunate.
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Also, can a movie theater make money with only 1/3rd of its seats filled max?
 
Not sure we will get back to “normal” until heard immunity is built up. Get comfortable. My dad and I have talked about this a couple times over the past few weeks. Things will never be the way they were before. And that’s ok. Not the end of the world either way. Stay safe everybody
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Not sure we will get back to “normal” until heard immunity is built up. Get comfortable. My dad and I have talked about this a couple times over the past few weeks. Things will never be the way they were before. And that’s ok. Not the end of the world either way. Stay safe everybody
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disagree. Once we get a vaccine and herd immunity COVID will be treated like the seasonal flu. The reason behind what we are doing now is to not overwhelm the HC system until we develop some immunity and a vaccine. Once that happens it’s back to complete normalcy. Jmo
 
LithiaWx said:
disagree. Once we get a vaccine and herd immunity COVID will be treated like the seasonal flu. The reason behind what we are doing now is to not overwhelm the HC system until we develop some immunity and a vaccine. Once that happens it’s back to complete normalcy. Jmo
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Please don’t take this as condescending but, for instance, when the “All clear” is given are you going to just run out to your favorite restaurant and sit down to eat? Or will it be a gradual warming up/testing of the waters before you go sit down at the local Outback and eat a 12 ouncer? Maybe we get back to normal, but it certainly will take some time. A lot of time imo. It’s weird now. No denying that
 
Shaggy said:
More than they are now I'm sure.

Theaters arent broke. They charge $5 for a .35c drank.
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Yeah, but I mean it might be cheaper for them to just shut down than operate at that capacity (not sure, though).
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Please don’t take this as condescending but, for instance, when the “All clear” is given are you going to just run out to your favorite restaurant and sit down to eat? Or will it be a gradual warming up/testing of the waters before you go sit down at the local Outback and eat a 12 ouncer? Maybe we get back to normal, but it certainly will take some time. A lot of time imo. It’s weird now. No denying that
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For me, I probably mostly will but I'm in my upper 20s with no comorbidities. But I think in general things are going to be a bit different in the months after an "all-clear" is given as a lot of people, especially higher-risk individuals, will likely take a while to get back out.
 
May be in vain but I hope at least regular life is starting to transition back, even if slowly, between May 15th-June 1st. That may mean a very abbreviated normal though, some of the things being described already in here (ie: the bowling alley example).

Man lol, when that happens, it's going to be crazy even for somewhat hermits. I have cavities that I need fixed and I know I can't call anyone to schedule anything right now (and I probably wouldn't have scheduled those in time even if I tried, thankfully they usually don't bother me), will need a haircut by then, and honestly not long after we get the all clear, I'll probably be in a car heading to La Fayette, GA. That's not to forget that I'd like to retest with the TEAS if possible (although some doubts are creeping in for me there overall).
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Please don’t take this as condescending but, for instance, when the “All clear” is given are you going to just run out to your favorite restaurant and sit down to eat? Or will it be a gradual warming up/testing of the waters before you go sit down at the local Outback and eat a 12 ouncer? Maybe we get back to normal, but it certainly will take some time. A lot of time imo. It’s weird now. No denying that
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It will take a long time. With a big chunk of society never facing a big obstacle, the stigma will last a long time. Even if it becomes quickly controlled and the US death count stops at 10k, the damage is done. I'm curious if we will see a flood of people heading to more rural sections of the country when this is all said and done.

This all said it will differ based on area. If this is indeed the peak, a lot of the rural states will probably go back to normal.
 
Arcc said:
It will take a long time. With a big chunk of society never facing a big obstacle, the stigma will last a long time. Even if it becomes quickly controlled and the US death count stops at 10k, the damage is done. I'm curious if we will see a flood of people heading to more rural sections of the country when this is all said and done.

This all said it will differ based on area. If this is indeed the peak, a lot of the rural states will probably go back to normal.
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I was tempted to post about what you just said but now you triggered me to lol!

The south , especially places like NC and Georgia have been overwhelmed overdeveloped and taken over by greed . The people just pour in , they want more more more. Bigger highways , more suburbs , more schools ewwww push those rednecks further out unsightly in my manicured subdivision. I don’t care how rural you think your area is it isn’t immune they will build develop and move everywhere .

Point is if you thought yanks were pouring in before this then you ain’t seen nothing . It’s about to be hurricane Harvey .... but raining northerners .

Greed is destroying this damn earth. I don’t personally blame the people moving a virus like this would make anyone rethink dense living to be fair .
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Please don’t take this as condescending but, for instance, when the “All clear” is given are you going to just run out to your favorite restaurant and sit down to eat? Or will it be a gradual warming up/testing of the waters before you go sit down at the local Outback and eat a 12 ouncer? Maybe we get back to normal, but it certainly will take some time. A lot of time imo. It’s weird now. No denying that
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100% I will. Go back to shaking hands, eating out, zoo, aquarium, vacations etc.
 
I think being careful for a week or two, just so there are no secondary spikes is a pretty good thing to do. But what the hell do I know...
 
Snowflowxxl said:
As soon as the words “all clear” are said, I will immediately get back to everything we used to have. Movie theatre, restaurants, ect. I’m not waiting a second.
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Absolutely this. I went out the other day on my day off trying unsuccesfully to find a sit down restaurant

I miss it. I eat fast food a lot when I'm working and my days off are my break from that and this drive thru stuff gets old quick

but I'm also still young and no real issues so maybe its different for me

also while I'm taking a break from vacations right now(well-timed in retrospect lol), I'm fully planning still on being at the beach in late July... got a cheap deal way back in the winter and it ain't that cheap now lol
 
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I think a lot of people aren't going to be able to afford going back to their old lifestyle. Also, it's easy to say I'll go back out and live exactly the way I did before all this happened, if you haven't been personally affected by the virus. But if there's no viable treatment option, and you've had a loved one get really sick or pass away, you're probably going to think twice, especially if you have an underlying health concern, like millions of people.

My guess is that you're going to see 3 camps emerge: Those who rush right back into life, those who are cautious for a time, and those who can no longer afford their previous lifestyle.
 
The announced update to the COVID models did not occur yesterday and the banner to check back on April 4 was removed.

No indication why?
 
Rain Cold said:
I think a lot of people aren't going to be able to afford going back to their old lifestyle. Also, it's easy to say I'll go back out and live exactly the way I did before all this happened, if you haven't been personally affected by the virus. But if there's no viable treatment option, and you've had a loved one get really sick or pass away, you're probably going to think twice, especially if you have an underlying health concern, like millions of people.

My guess is that you're going to see 3 camps emerge: Those who rush right back into life, those who are cautious for a time, and those who can no longer afford their previous lifestyle.
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That is the kicker right there. Even if we shock the world and come out of this thing as good as possible, with the rest of the world still getting hit and China dealing with periodic outbreaks, the economic look isn't rosy.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Please don’t take this as condescending but, for instance, when the “All clear” is given are you going to just run out to your favorite restaurant and sit down to eat? Or will it be a gradual warming up/testing of the waters before you go sit down at the local Outback and eat a 12 ouncer? Maybe we get back to normal, but it certainly will take some time. A lot of time imo. It’s weird now. No denying that
Click to expand...
Good point. I think you naturally see it slowly ramp up for a month or so. Cautious people will keep it thinned out in the beginning which isnt a bad thing.
 
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