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Arctic April

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That’s also a very good pattern for severe
I don’t usually make predictions like this and I hope I’m wrong but I just got this sinking feeling in me that there’s going to be a week in April featuring a series of rough severe weather events. Given everything else going on that is absolutely the last thing needed, but I can’t shake this uneasy feeling. Hope I’m wrong.
 
I don’t usually make predictions like this and I hope I’m wrong but I just got this sinking feeling in me that there’s going to be a week in April featuring a series of rough severe weather events. Given everything else going on that is absolutely the last thing needed, but I can’t shake this uneasy feeling. Hope I’m wrong.

April has been dominated by blocking these past few years, this year looks different... that pattern the ensembles/globals show is one that can produce legit multi day severe weather events, especially since it looks like the SER won’t be beaten back that much, this April has a different look
 
It’s also worth noting that even if the trough doesn’t eject much from the west, we’ve seen these weird setups with strong flow out the west on the more northern side of the ridge aloft (500mb) with little Pieces of energy acting to back low level winds this year, for example the Nashville tornado was like that
 
It’s also worth noting that even if the trough doesn’t eject much from the west, we’ve seen these weird setups with strong flow out the west on the more northern side of the ridge aloft (500mb) with little Pieces of energy acting to back low level winds this year, for example the Nashville tornado was like that

Yeah, you really don't need a monster s/w to eject out of the SW US or southern plains to get a decent bout of severe weather, oftentimes, those setups are characterized by considerably too much forcing/shear and limits the overall severity of convection
 
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